ADP Arbitrage: Cecil Shorts

8142462522_616802ed18_c Using the ADP Arbitrage app we can look at a receiver and then see what the Average Draft Position of similar receivers is.  This is a way of checking market value.  I figured I would bang out a quick article illustrating how I would use the app in making decisions for my fantasy team.

First, I’ll just give you a heads up and let you know that Shorts is being drafted much later than guys who put up comparable seasons.  Here is Shorts’ 2012 season summary:

NAME OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Cecil Shorts JAC 25 205 14 7.5 3.93 69.93 0.5 0.29 9.32 38

Now here are the summaries of some receivers that had similar seasons:

NAME OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Michael Crabtree SF 25 214 16 7.94 5.31 69.06 0.56 0.27 8.7 15
Pierre Garcon WAS 26 210 10 6.8 4.5 64.4 0.4 0.27 9.47 14
Randall Cobb GB 22 192 15 6.93 5.33 63.6 0.53 0.37 9.17 12

The comparables group was targeted about as much as Shorts, did about the same with those targets in both yards and touchdowns, and yet we can expect every member of the group to go off the draft board well ahead of Shorts when the season rolls around.

We can actually take this analysis a step further by using the Similarity Score app, which will give us a projection for each player for next year based on looking at how comparable players followed up seasons in which they were similar to the subject players we’re looking at.

I’ve created the table below by using the custom game filtering feature on the Similarity Score app.  Just look at the N+1 tab for the 2013 projection.

I threw out Michael Crabtree’s games which weren’t started by Colin Kaepernick.  I also threw out Pierre Garcon’s games in which he was lightly targeted (he was heavily targeted when healthy).  I just copied the tables into Excel so that I could put them in this post, but this is all work that would be very easy for you to do with any player you might want to look at.

Projecting Player Proj. Season TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT FP/G PPR FP/G
Michael Crabtree 2013 8.93 5.38 70.63 0.50 0.04 7.84 10.06 15.44
Pierre Garcon 2013 8.29 4.42 61.38 0.37 (0.04) 7.43 8.36 12.78
Cecil Shorts 2013 6.99 3.82 52.86 0.34 7.51 7.33 11.15
Randall Cobb 2013 7.18 4.13 52.51 0.27 (0.08) 7.33 6.87 11.00

If Cecil Shorts is still being drafted in the late 30s among WRs in August, he’s probably a very good value.  At the same time, Randall Cobb might be overvalued not just because his comparable player group underwhelmed in the season after they were similar to Cobb-2012, but also because you could get Cecil Shorts for a much lower price in the draft.  Is Cecil Shorts every bit the player Cobb is?  Who cares? He’s going to be much cheaper to draft in all likelihood.

Note that if you don’t like my conclusions or methodology here, you could come to a different conclusion by customizing the Similarity Scores differently.  Give it a try and see if you end up confirming your existing beliefs.