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12 More Players With Near-Identical Stats, Wildly Different ADPs

antoniogates

This is part two of “Name Brand” versus “Store Brand.” Both perform similarly but one is a lot cheaper. The following is a list of players with very similar 2013 stats. Their current redraft ADPs are not.

Here are some of my takes and questions to ponder.Arian Foster and Steven Jackson

Rushing

Receiving

G

Att

Yds

TDs

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Arian Foster

8

121

542

1

35

22

183

1

29, 3rd

Steven Jackson

12

156

542

6

49

33

191

1

112, 9th

There is plenty of name recognition with these two. Arian Foster is younger but also just had offseason back surgery. Steven Jackson plays in the higher upside offense based on quarterback play. The injury risk is high on both. How much are you willing to spend?

Lamar Miller and Bilal Powell

Rushing

Receiving

G

Att

Yds

TDs

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Lamar Miller

16

177

709

2

35

26

170

0

110, 9th

Bilal Powell

16

176

697

1

57

36

272

0

N/A

People are jumping back on the Lamar Miller bandwagon with the latest Knowshon Moreno news. Personally, I agree with Max Mulitz that Moreno was brought in for a reason. Maybe Davis Mattek and Scott Smith are right and Miller will finally break out. Powell is going undrafted in redrafts and rightfully so given his current rank on the Jets depth chart. From a talent standpoint, if you are a believer in Miller, does that make you a believer in Powell too?

Torrey Smith and Brian Hartline

Receiving

G

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Torrey Smith

16

137

65

1128

4

60, 5th

Brian Hartline

16

134

76

1016

4

160, 13th

Rich Hribar wrote the best case I’ve ever read for Torrey Smith. Call me crazy but I want my fifth-round pick to catch at least half of his targets. Torrey has sported a 46 percent catch rate the last two seasons. Hartline has posted two, top 30 PPR WR seasons during that time and can be had 100 picks later. Is Torrey “Boom or Bust” Smith worthy of his ADP?

Golden Tate and Rod Streater

Receiving

G

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Golden Tate

14

99

64

898

5

96, 8th 

Rod Streater

16

99

60

888

4

204, 17th 

The new WR2 in Detroit playing opposite of Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate certainly looks like a decent draft pick. Tate was very efficient in Seattle. Streater was too with far inferior QB talent. Matt Schaub is a massive upgrade for Rod. Schaub has a track record of producing at least one Elite WR. If you’re still not sold on Streater, read this by Vaughn Stewart.

Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer

Passing

G

Comp

Att

Pass

TDs

INT

ADP

Andrew Luck

16

345

572

3830

23

9

40, 4th

Carson Palmer

16

362

572

4274

24

22

168, 14th

I left off the rushing stats just to compare passing numbers and show how underrated Carson Palmer is as a passer. Even with the interceptions, Palmer outscores Luck’s passing. Andrew Luck is clearly the bigger fantasy producer with rushing added in. I do think Luck is in for a big season and I argue my case for Palmer being Kurt Warner reincarnated here.

Jason Witten and Antonio Gates

Receiving

G

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Jason Witten

16

111

73

851

8

83, 6th

Antonio Gates

16

113

77

872

4

172, 14th

Both these tight ends are past their primes but still offer considerable value. Witten almost always finishes as a TE1. Gates is an absolute steal eight rounds later if he can keep pace like he did in ’13. Matt Frittle can tell you all about the mystifying ADP of Antonio Gates. Please don’t mistake this as a projection piece. I’m not suggesting these players will match their 2013 stats. This was written to expose potential value in ADP. Again I ask the question. Is it really worth buying the “Name Brand” player or can you live with the less expensive “Store Brand” player? You decide.

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