Bargain Shopping: 12 Players With Amazingly Similar Stats But Wildly Different Draft Costs

gio bernard

This is an examination of “Name Brand” versus “Store Brand”. Both perform similarly but one is a lot cheaper.  The following is a list of players with very similar 2013 stats. Their current redraft ADPs are not.

Here are some of my takes and questions to ponder.

Gio Bernard and Joique Bell

Rushing

Receiving

G

Att

Yds

TDs

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

TDs

ADP

Giovani Bernard

16

170

695

5

71

56

514

3

3

17, 2nd

Joique Bell

16

166

650

8

69

53

547

0

0

71, 6th

Both of these backs are in a time share. Bernard is the superior talent. Joique’s ADP is much more palatable. Bernard may well be worth his ADP. Just looking at the numbers though, who would you rather have?

Eddie Lacy and Ryan Mathews

Rushing

Receiving

G

Att

Yds

TDs

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

TDs

ADP

Eddie Lacy

15

284

1178

11

44

35

257

0

0

9, 1st

Ryan Mathews

16

285

1255

6

33

26

189

1

1

52, 5th

Lacy scored more TDs than Mathews. Other than that, I don’t see a big separation here. I’m just as skeptical as anybody about Matthews. In this small comparison, Mathews is a comparable RB to Lacy. Lacy should be a fine first round pick, right?

Le’Veon Bell and Maurice Jones Drew

Rushing

Receiving

G

Att

Yds

TDs

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

TDs

ADP

Le’Veon Bell

13

244

860

8

66

45

408

0

0

16, 2nd

Maurice Jones Drew

15

235

803

5

60

43

314

0

0

120, 10th

MJD has taken a lot of criticism for 2013. Bell has had mostly praise as evidenced by his second round ADP. It is curious they could have numbers so close playing in far different offenses. In case you didn’t realize it, Jones Drew is part of the Elite 24. It’s only one year but Bell didn’t far surpass MJD in the final stats. Is Bell deserving of a top 20 overall pick?

Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin

Receiving

Rushing

G

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

Att

Yds

TDs

ADP

Cordarrelle Patterson

16

77

45

469

4

12

158

3

34, 4th

Tavon Austin

13

67

40

418

4

9

151

1

94, 7th

The Cordarrelle hype baffles me. It is kind of shocking how similar their numbers were given the current excitement around Patterson.  For the record, the last time Cordarrelle caught more than 61 receptions in a season was his senior year of high school. He’s clearly a talented athlete. I personally hesitate to invest heavily into a player strictly on potential. What warrants the earlier draft spot considering the stats above?  Norv Turner?

Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett

Receiving

G

Target

Rec

Yds

TDs

ADP

Julius Thomas

14

90

65

788

12

39, 4th

Martellus Bennett

16

94

65

759

5

117, 9th

I really like Thomas’ upside going into this season with Eric Decker gone. Bennett seems fairly undervalued. There are not many TEs who receive 90+ targets, only 9 did in 2013. Four of Bennett’s five TDs were with Jay Cutler under center. Pick up Bennett if you don’t get Greg Olsen.

Jay Cutler and Ryan Fitzpatrick

Passing

Rushing

G

Comp

Att

Pass

TDs

INT

Att

Yds

TDs

ADP

Jay Cutler

11

225

356

2619

19

12

23

118

0

123, 10th

Ryan Fitzpatrick

11

217

350

2454

14

12

43

225

3

230, 19th

Speaking of Cutler, this one really surprised me. With the same 11 game comparison, they both averaged 18.8 PPR pts per game. No one outside of Houston is a believer in Fitzpatrick whereas Cutler is the rising up draft boards as a later round QB favorite. Kevin Cole recently named Fitzpatrick the most undervalued QB. He may be onto something.

Looking at a one year window may seem an arbitrary exercise. Remember this is comparison shopping. The point is finding value and determining worth. Is it really worth buying the “Name Brand” player or can you live with the less expensive “Store Brand” player? You decide.