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Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and the Pre-draft Rookie Quarterback Rankings

I think if I were going to attempt to boil down our outlook on QBs this year to a couple of principal components I would focus on the following:

  • Marcus Mariota will create fantasy points with his legs
  • Jameis Winston has some question marks as a prospect because he was mistake prone in his final season
  • Mariota is otherwise an incredibly young and accomplished prospect
  • The rest of the prospects will likely be selected in the dead zone of the draft where odds of becoming a starter are long

The interesting thing is that while I don’t think we probably have any special knowledge as it relates to QBs, if you follow the back and forth as to whether Mariota and Winston might flip flop in draft position, you get the sense that it might be a coin flip as to who the better prospect is. Maybe there are more people in the Winston camp, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are also the largest stakeholders, but there are also a lot of people in the Mariota camp. When that is known I would say that even if we don’t know very much about QBs, we probably have about as much chance of being right as anyone.

We’ve created a few ways for you to digest these rankings. First, you can check out the Google doc where each writer’s individual ranks are shown. You can also look at the graph below which is a more tier-based way to view them. There’s a big PDF that you can view if the graph is too small. Finally, if you like to keep things simple you can just look at the table below. Note that we’ll also be updating these rankings after the draft.

Rplot119

NAME SCHOOL POS SCORE COMP
MARCUS MARIOTA OREGON QB 108 1
JAMEIS WINSTON FLORIDA STATE QB 101 2
BRETT HUNDLEY UCLA QB 84 3
BRYCE PETTY BAYLOR QB 68 4
GARRETT GRAYSON COLORADO STATE QB 61 5
BLAKE SIMS ALABAMA QB 32 6
CODY FAJARDO NEVADA QB 30 7
JAKE WATERS KANSAS STATE QB 26 8
SEAN MANNION OREGON STATE QB 21 9
NICK MARSHALL AUBURN QB 15 10
CONNOR HALLIDAY WASHINGTON STATE QB 14 11
SHANE CARDEN EAST CAROLINA QB 11 12
BO WALLACE MISSISSIPPI QB 9 13
BRYAN BENNETT SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA QB 8 14
TAYLOR HEINICKE OLD DOMINION QB 7 15
BRANDON BRIDGE SOUTH ALABAMA QB 5 16
CHRIS BONNER COLORADO PUEBLO QB 5 17

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