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Wisdom of the Sharks – Who Do High Stakes Players Like in Rookie Drafts?

The FFPC recently opened up a new group of dynasty leagues at the $250 buy in level, which I suspect will appeal to a lot more casual dynasty players. For that reason, I think that our readers might become increasingly interested in ADP trends in the FFPC format. We’re always hoping to give our readers an extra leg up, so I’ll provide semi-regular updates to FFPC Dynasty ADP through some articles.

While the $250 leagues that are launching this year won’t have a rookie draft until 2017, the FFPC has an off-season cut-down to 16 players (including a kicker and defense) so the rookie drafts show some of the interesting quirks that owners have to deal with in that format. For instance, Coby Fleener has been available in more than a quarter of rookie drafts. FFPC is a TE premium format, so that tells you that some owners are faced with tough decisions on the cut-down day. Some other veteran players that didn’t make cut-down in a decent number of leagues include: Markus Wheaton, Dwayne Allen, and Sammie Coates.

Even though FFPC is TE premium scoring, which gives 1.5 PPR for TEs, that hasn’t really changed Hunter Henry’s ADP very much. He’s going about where he’s going in most dynasty leagues. In fact because you do cut-down to essentially 14 skill position players, I could see an argument for ignoring rookie TEs completely and spending rookie picks on players that will have more volatility in their first year. There’s some penalty function that should apply for players that you suspect will be at or near the end of your bench in a year, although I haven’t yet played this format so I’m not sure what that penalty function is. But I do think it almost has to prioritize volatile players who have a good chance of either making it into your starting lineup, or being easily droppable.

In case any readers are going to be doing maiden drafts for the new $250 buy-in leagues I’ll also try to post some startup ADP from time to time. Stay tuned.

*N is the number of times the player has been drafted in rookie drafts.

NAMETMPOSOVRN
EZEKIEL ELLIOTTDALRB1.0056
LAQUON TREADWELLMINWR2.4156
COREY COLEMANCLEWR3.4356
JOSH DOCTSONWASWR3.5256
STERLING SHEPARDNYGWR6.0956
DERRICK HENRYTENRB6.3256
MICHAEL THOMASNOWR7.5256
COBY FLEENERNOTE7.6916
KENNETH DIXONBALRB8.9156
MARTELLUS BENNETTNETE9.001
TYLER BOYDCINWR10.7956
CJ PROSISESEARB11.7355
WILL FULLERHOUWR12.0555
MARVIN JONESDETWR12.504
DEVONTAE BOOKERDENRB12.7156
HUNTER HENRYSDTE13.0956
LEONTE CARROOMIAWR14.3956
PAUL PERKINSNYGRB15.7356
RYAN MATHEWSPHIRB16.002
DWAYNE ALLENINDTE16.1625
JORDAN HOWARDCHIRB18.0456
KENYAN DRAKEMIARB19.1855
JONATHAN STEWARTCARRB20.003
PHILLIP DORSETTINDWR20.001
AUSTIN HOOPERATLTE20.3256
DESEAN JACKSONWASWR20.673
MARKUS WHEATONPITWR21.2417
ANTONIO GATESSDTE21.605
MALCOLM MITCHELLNEWR21.6656
KEITH MARSHALLWASRB22.9156
DANNY WOODHEADSDRB23.001
ISAIAH CROWELLCLERB23.502
MICHAEL THOMASLAWR23.888
SAMMIE COATESPITWR24.2938
DEANDRE WASHINGTONOAKRB25.2956
FRANK GOREINDRB26.254
PHAROH COOPERLAWR27.3056
DAVANTE ADAMSGBWR28.003
TRAVIS BENJAMINSDWR28.119
DEANDRE SMELTERSFWR28.2421
WENDELL SMALLWOODPHIRB29.4856
JONATHAN WILLIAMSBUFRB32.2056
JORDAN CAMERONMIATE32.6411
BRAXTON MILLERHOUWR32.7556
JARED COOKGBTE32.7854
JUSTIN FORSETTBALRB33.577
TYLER ERVINHOURB33.5756
TORREY SMITHSFWR34.2429
MIKE THOMASLAWR35.7548
TAVON AUSTINLAWR36.502
THEO RIDDICKDETRB36.502
CHRIS HOGANNEWR36.8056
RASHAD JENNINGSNYGRB36.8425
CHARLES CLAYBUFTE37.009
MAXX WILLIAMSBALTE37.502
KYLE RUDOLPHMINTE38.449
JEFF JANISGBWR38.7148
TYLER HIGBEELATE39.1356
STEVE SMITHBALWR39.4015
MATT RYANATLQB39.437
ZACH MILLERCHITE39.9729
SHANE VEREENNYGRB40.3312
VINCENT JACKSONTBWR40.5520
PHILIP RIVERSSDQB40.7516
DEANGELO WILLIAMSPITRB41.0014
LANCE DUNBARDALRB41.001
MOHAMED SANUATLWR41.3154
ELI MANNINGNYGQB42.0019
MATTHEW STAFFORDDETQB42.4010
KENDALL WRIGHTTENWR42.758
ALEX COLLINSSEARB42.8955
DEN TEAM DEFENSEDENDF44.001
RASHARD HIGGINSCLEWR45.2653
JARED GOFFLAQB45.5855
CHARCANDRICK WESTKCRB45.6414
TREVOR DAVISGBWR46.002
RYAN TANNEHILLMIAQB47.0616
WILL TYENYGTE47.2715
BILAL POWELLNYJRB47.5014
MIKE WALLACEBALWR47.6644
KC TEAM DEFENSEKCDF48.001
LEGARRETTE BLOUNTNERB48.0647
CHRIS CONLEYKCWR48.4511
RISHARD MATTHEWSTENWR48.5424
TYROD TAYLORBUFQB49.003
WILLIE SNEADNOWR49.001
JEFF HEUERMANDENTE49.0653
TONY ROMODALQB49.0826
VANCE MCDONALDSFTE49.2528
KIRK COUSINSWASQB49.5014
NICK VANNETTSEATE50.836
CARSON PALMERARIQB51.002
QUINTON PATTONSFWR51.002
JAMISON CROWDERWASWR51.2010
KAMAR AIKENBALWR51.676
PIERRE GARCONWASWR51.6718
CAMERON ARTIS PAYNECARRB51.7520
CJ SPILLERNORB52.1926
TAJAE SHARPETENWR52.2040
JOSH FERGUSONINDRB52.2153
ANDY DALTONCINQB52.3010
MARQUEZ NORTHLAWR52.405
JACE AMARONYJTE52.4224
DANIEL LASCONORB52.9447
TY MONTGOMERYGBWR53.4715
KENNY STILLSMIAWR53.504
DARREN MCFADDENDALRB53.569
BENJAMIN WATSONBALTE53.6523
KEYARRIS GARRETTCARWR53.7649
CHANDLER CATANZAROARIPK54.001
VICTOR CRUZNYGWR54.0427
CARSON WENTZPHIQB54.4045
DEMARCUS ROBINSONKCWR54.5317
NATE WASHINGTONNEWR55.002
DARREN SPROLESPHIRB55.0932
RICO GATHERSDALTE55.9314
RONNIE HILLMANDENRB56.5010
CODY LATIMERDENWR56.5413
PAXTON LYNCHDENQB57.3636
HOU TEAM DEFENSEHOUDF57.504
JAMES STARKSGBRB57.6828
BRANDON COLEMANNOWR57.9418
ALFRED MORRISDALRB58.007
DJ FOSTERNEWR58.001
CHRIS MOOREBALWR58.0824
SPENCER WAREKCRB58.1021
JJ NELSONARIWR58.229
JERELL ADAMSNYGTE58.2524
ZACH ZENNERDETRB58.2924
RUEBEN RANDLEPHIWR58.3113
STL TEAM DEFENSELADF58.437
MORITZ BOEHRINGERMINWR58.502
JORDAN PAYTONCLEWR58.7634
GARRETT GRAHAMDENTE59.001
KENNY BELLTBWR59.6327
CHARONE PEAKENYJWR60.0035
CHRIS THOMPSONWASRB60.0014
MALCOLM BROWNLARB60.001
KADEEM CAREYCHIRB60.2114
CROCKETT GILLMOREBALTE60.673
BROCK OSWEILERHOUQB60.867
ANDRE ELLINGTONARIRB60.9520
LARRY DONNELLNYGTE61.004
SETH DEVALVECLETE61.1712
JOSH ROBINSONINDRB61.3010
TERRANCE WILLIAMSDALWR61.5728
DENNIS PITTABALTE62.001
MARQISE LEEJACWR62.0020
TERRELL WATSONCLERB62.2528
DAMIEN WILLIAMSMIARB63.001
KENNY BRITTLAWR63.004
RICHARD RODGERSGBTE63.138
TEDDY BRIDGEWATERMINQB63.2715
FITZGERALD TOUSSAINTPITRB63.502
AARON BURBRIDGESFWR63.6015
CAMERON BRATETBTE63.6913
TERRELLE PRYORCLEWR64.002
TRE MASONLARB64.0012
MYCOLE PRUITTMINTE64.1217
KENNY LAWLERSEAWR64.205
KHIRY ROBINSONNYJRB64.258
JUSTIN HARDYATLWR64.508
JAMES WHITENERB64.5511
BRANDEN OLIVERSDRB64.805
ALFRED BLUEHOURB64.836
ROGER LEWISNYGWR64.8312
JAY CUTLERCHIQB64.9213
CHRIS JOHNSONARIRB65.0020
DEVON JOHNSONCARRB65.001
GB TEAM DEFENSEGBDF65.002
BRANDON LAFELLCINWR65.2015
ARI TEAM DEFENSEARIDF65.502
JAELEN STRONGHOUWR65.502
PHILLY BROWNCARWR65.502
CIN TEAM DEFENSECINDF65.676
CHRIS BROWNDALWR66.001
DANNY AMENDOLANEWR66.009
DONTRELLE INMANSDWR66.001
ROBERTO AGUAYOTBPK66.0018
TEMARRICK HEMINGWAYLATE66.002
ROBERT GRIFFINCLEQB66.2010
SETH ROBERTSOAKWR66.336
ANQUAN BOLDINSFWR66.388
MORITZ B HRINGERMINWR66.4520
MIKE DAVISSFRB66.5922
RICARDO LOUISCLEWR66.6330
JOSH BROWNNYGPK67.001
MIN TEAM DEFENSEMINDF67.005
VIRGIL GREENDENTE67.0715
ROBERT TURBININDRB67.2520
NILES PAULWASTE67.3611
STEVIE JOHNSONSDWR67.3813
PEYTON BARBERTBRB67.437
ROBERT WOODSBUFWR67.4823
KELVIN TAYLORSFRB67.5511
PHI TEAM DEFENSEPHIDF67.605
BUF TEAM DEFENSEBUFDF67.673
DEVIN SMITHNYJWR67.7512
RYAN GRIFFINHOUTE67.805
DWAYNE WASHINGTONDETRB68.0016
TED GINNCARWR68.005
BLAKE BELLSFTE68.339
SHAUN DRAUGHNSFRB68.437
BRANDON WILDSATLRB68.502
JERMAINE KEARSESEAWR68.504
BEN BRAUNECKERCHITE69.002
DUKE WILLIAMSLAWR69.001
JOE FLACCOBALQB69.638
JACOB TAMMEATLTE69.7010
HAKEEM VALLESARITE70.001
JOIQUE BELLDETRB70.001
JOSH HILLNOTE70.005
JUSTIN TUCKERBALPK70.205
BENNY CUNNINGHAMLARB70.333
JOHN CROCKETTGBRB70.502
CHRISTINE MICHAELSEARB70.6010
ANDRE WILLIAMSNYGRB70.673
ERIC ROGERSSFWR70.6819
COLE BEASLEYDALWR71.001
LUKE WILLSONSEATE71.002
DAN BAILEYDALPK71.176
BRIAN QUICKLAWR71.205
THOMAS DUARTEMIATE71.577
JESSE JAMESPITTE71.805
COLIN KAEPERNICKSFQB72.005
CORDARRELLE PATTERSONMINWR72.001
GRAHAM GANOCARPK72.001
RASHAD GREENEJACWR72.004
STEVAN RIDLEYDETRB72.1010
TYLER KROFTCINTE72.1315
MARSHAUN COPRICHNYGRB72.405
TRE MADDENSEARB72.502
MARSHAWN LYNCHSEARB72.6526
LANCE KENDRICKSLATE72.673
BAL TEAM DEFENSEBALDF73.002
BRICE BUTLERDALWR73.0010
TRENT RICHARDSONBALRB73.2114
OAK TEAM DEFENSEOAKDF73.502
PIT TEAM DEFENSEPITDF73.502
BRUCE ELLINGTONSFWR73.754
ALBERT WILSONKCWR74.001
BRIAN HARTLINECLEWR74.002
MICHAEL CAMPANAROBALWR74.001
NE TEAM DEFENSENEDF74.004
PEYTON BARBERFARB74.001
RAY RICEFARB74.001
KENJON BARNERPHIRB74.333
SAM BRADFORDPHIQB74.502
ADAM VINATIERIINDPK75.001
DERUNNYA WILSONNEWR75.002
DEVIN LUCIENNEWR75.001
PAUL RICHARDSONSEAWR75.405
RYAN FITZPATRICKNYJQB75.405
DONALD BROWNNERB75.605
DEXTER MCCLUSTERTENRB76.002
DANIEL BRAVERMANCHIWR76.502
DARIUS JACKSONDALRB77.002
HARRY DOUGLASTENWR77.001
MARQUESS WILSONCHIWR77.001
NYJ TEAM DEFENSENYJDF77.002
BLAIR WALSHMINPK77.205
TIM HIGHTOWERNORB77.339
CONNOR COOKOAKQB78.001
GAVIN ESCOBARDALTE78.002
BRANDON WILDSFARB79.001
FRED JACKSONSEARB79.001
NYG TEAM DEFENSENYGDF79.001
DAVID COBBTENRB80.001
STEVEN HAUSCHKASEAPK80.001
BRANDON MCMANUSDENPK81.001
BYRON MARSHALLPHIWR81.002
DARRIUS HEYWARD BEYPITWR81.001
EDDIE ROYALCHIWR81.001
TYLER GAFFNEYNERB81.001
JAC TEAM DEFENSEJACDF81.673
VERNON DAVISWASTE82.001
DEVON CAJUSTESFWR82.502
CHARLES JOHNSONMINWR83.001
JACK DOYLEINDTE83.001
REGGIE BUSHSFRB83.001
ALEX SMITHKCQB84.001
CHRISTIAN HACKENBERGNYJQB84.001
ERIK SWOOPEINDTE84.001
KESHAWN MARTINNEWR84.001
KOLBY LISTENBEEBUFWR84.001
MIA TEAM DEFENSEMIADF84.001
NELSON SPRUCELAWR84.001

 

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