Dynasty Command Center – A Late Season Redraft of the 2016 Rookie Class

Winning dynasty fantasy footballers can never rest. Every news blurb, injury, big game, or depth chart update can change the short term – or long term – value of players in your portfolio or on your wish list.

The dynasty command center is here to cut through the noise and help you make sense of it all.

Dynasty Command Center — A Late Season Redraft of the 2016 Rookie Class

As the playoffs approach and many trade deadlines have come and gone, it’s time to look back on the early hits and misses of the 2016 rookie draft class based on their original average draft position. I’ll use the Rotoviz Dynasty ADP App as my reference — there are over 400 rookie drafts’ worth of data in there. I’ll then give you my reordered top 24 ranks for the 2016 class, with analysis, to help you prepare for off-season trading.

August 2016 Rookie Class, Top 24 ADP

The table below displays the rookie draft ADP for the top 24 players in 2016.

RankNamePosition
1Ezekiel ElliottRB
2Laquon TreadwellWR
3Corey ColemanWR
4Josh DoctsonWR
5Sterling ShepardWR
6Derrick HenryRB
7Michael ThomasWR
8Kenneth DixonRB
9C.J. ProsiseRB
10Will FullerWR
11Tyler BoydWR
12Devontae BookerRB
T-13Leonte CarrooWR
T-13Jordan HowardRB
15Paul PerkinsRB
16Deandre WashingtonRB
17Hunter HenryTE
18Jared GoffQB
19Wendell SmallwoodRB
20Kenyan DrakeRB
21Malcolm MitchellWR
22Carson WentzQB
23Braxton MillerWR
24Paxton LynchQB

2016 Rookie Class, Late Season Redraft

The table below displays my redraft of the 2016 rookie class, based on what we now know about how these players’ abilities have transferred to the NFL, their current and presumed future roles, and their overall offense situation.

Previous RankNamePosition
1Ezekiel ElliottRB
7Michael ThomasWR
3Corey ColemanWR
T-13Jordan HowardRB
9C.J. ProsiseRB
17Hunter HenryTE
6Derrick HenryRB
4Josh DoctsonWR
11Tyler BoydWR
10Will FullerWR
5Sterling ShepardWR
Outside top 24Tyreek HillWR
Outside top 24Dak PrescottQB
Outside top 24Tajae SharpeWR
2Laquon TreadwellWR
21Malcolm MitchellWR
8Kenneth DixonRB
12Devontae BookerRB
T-13Leonte CarrooWR
15Paul PerkinsRB
19Wendell SmallwoodRB
16Deandre WashingtonRB
22Carson WentzQB
18Jared GoffQB

Analysis

A few takeaways from some of the more notable rookie developments this season:

Ezekiel Elliott has been the home run of home runs as far as rookie dynasty picks go. The Dallas star is keeping pace with Eric Dickerson’s rookie running back rushing record, has 12 rushing touchdowns, and has been such a good pass catcher and pass blocker that he is rarely coming off the field regardless of the score. Through 12 games, Elliott has never seen fewer than 17 touches in a single game and has only failed to score 15 fantasy point one time, in week one. He is on pace to exceed both the touches and yardage numbers in pre-season bold prediction.

Michael Thomas has a shot at Anquan Boldin’s rookie receptions record and is turning the “who is the number one WR in New Orleans” debate into a real head scratcher. You can read my #dynastycommandcenter piece from earlier this season here: Magic Mic(hael) Thomas is Stealing the Show

Corey Coleman has only played six games due to a mid-season broken hand. He has looked good at times, scoring three TDs and posting one 100 yard receiving game. The quarterback situation in Cleveland and Terrelle Pryor’s amazing ascension have tempered expectations for Coleman this season.

Jordan Howard has far exceeded expectations, leading the league in some important RB metrics and putting a stranglehold on the starting RB role that was promised to Jeremy Langford prior to the season.

Tyreek Hill has emerged from near anonymity in the pre-season to become one of the most talked about players in the league. He is second to Michael Thomas in most of the rookie WR statistical categories. He has taken advantage of Jeremy Maclin’s ongoing injury issues to cement himself as the new primary playmaker in the Chiefs offense. He hasn’t developed the deeper parts of his route tree yet, but if he does, Hill could prove to be a true X WR in this league for years to come.

Dak Prescott is in the discussion for league MVP and was fantasy QB7 prior to Thursday night’s game in Minnesota. He’s playing with the poise of a veteran and has found chemistry with Dez Bryant late in the season. I told you to add Prescott back in the preseason and Anthony Amico called him this year’s Tyrod Taylor.

Laquon Treadwell hasn’t been able to get on the field despite being healthy. His season-long line is currently 1/15/0 in two appearances. Stefon Diggs appears to be the real deal and there isn’t much room for a strong number two producer in the Minnesota offense. I’m worried about him long term.

I’m proud to say that #dynastycommandcenter has been out in front of many of these amazing rookie performances — hopefully you took advantage of the analysis throughout the season and your dynasty teams are flourishing with newfound upside.

Dropped Out

Kenyan Drake is buried behind the other young Miami backfield prospect, Jay Ajayi. I couldn’t justify keeping him inside the top 24 of this redraft considering his near term outlook

Paxton Lynch is still probably the future in Denver, but we haven’t seen anything from him yet. Trevor Siemian might not go away quietly.

Braxton Miller is the WR3 in an embarrassing Houston passing attack.

Newcomers

Tyreek Hill – see above

Dak Prescott – see above

Tajae Sharpe has been inconsistent but has flashed enough with the Titans’ elite young QB, Marcus Mariota to warrant an early second round ADP in my redraft. I want all young players tied to Mariota at their current prices.