Fantasy Face-Off: Kenny Britt vs. Marvin Jones (Part 2)

Late round picks can turn your team from good to great. Being drafted as the 52nd and 53rd wide receivers off the board according to the Best-Ball ADP app, Marvin Jones and Kenny Britt are two receivers who appear to be vastly undervalued. While Matt Wispe made his case for Jones, here is the case to take Britt instead.

VOLUME

Last year, Terrelle Pryor was a pleasant surprise for the Browns, collecting 77 passes, 1007 yards, and scoring four times. This was good enough to be WR20 on the season in PPR formats. The Browns decided that instead of paying Pryor at his asking price, they would pay Britt, who himself compiled 68 catches, 1002 yards and six scores. The biggest difference between the two was targets. While Britt did his damage on just 111 targets in the woeful Rams offense, Pryor had a whopping 141 targets. Not only is Pryor and his 141 targets gone, so are Gary Barnidge and Andrew Hawkins, who had a combined 135 more. Those 275 targets are roughly half of the team’s total from a year ago that are now completely up for grabs.

Player TRGS reREC reYRDS reYPRC TDs
Terrelle Pryor Sr. 140 77 1007 13.1 4
Gary Barnidge 81 55 612 11.1 2
Duke Johnson Jr. 72 53 514 9.7 0
Corey Coleman 74 33 413 12.5 3
Andrew Hawkins 54 33 324 9.8 3
Isaiah Crowell 52 40 319 8 0
Ricardo Louis 36 18 205 11.4 0
All Others 46 29 299 10.3 3

The only real threat to Britt getting significant volume is Corey Coleman, but even that is a stretch with so many targets leaving and the Browns expected to once again have a losing season. Britt is being paid like a team’s number one wide receiver, 19th among WRs, and should get the volume in a Browns passing attack that lacks threats.

EFFICIENCY

Britt has, throughout his career, been a very efficient fantasy asset, despite the lack of a good quarterback in any of his seasons. Below is the list of quarterbacks that Britt has had throughout his career, with his receiving totals, fantasy points over expectation per attempt, and PPR points per target:

PLAYER SEAS G RECS TRGS reYDS reFPOEPA FP/TRG
Vince Young/Kerry Collins 2009 16 42 75 701 0.15 1.73
Vince Young/Kerry Collins/Rusty Smith 2010 12 42 73 775 0.71 2.38
Matt Hasselbeck 2011 3 17 26 289 0.74 2.46
Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck 2012 14 45 90 589 -0.2 1.42
Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jake Locker 2013 12 11 35 96 -1.01 0.59
Austin Davis/Shaun Hill 2014 16 48 84 748 0.14 1.69
Nick Foles/Case Keenum 2015 16 36 72 681 0.11 1.70
Case Keenum/Jared Goff 2016 15 68 111 1002 0.14 1.79

As you can see, with lackluster QB play, Britt has excelled most seasons. If we look at his career reFPOEPA using the RotoViz screener, it compares quite favorably players going ahead of him, some by several rounds.

BrittScreener

While Britt most likely will not outscore all of these players, it does indicate that he is much better than his ADP indicates.

THIS SEASON

What should we expect from Britt this season? Well, with the amount of volume up for grabs and his historical efficiency, the projections look very favorable. Projecting him with WR1 volume looks like this:

Player TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS PPR
Kenny Britt 137.92 82.75 1172.29 14.17 6.90 241.35

With where he is being drafted, Britt would be the most valuable pick in fantasy drafts if he were to produce like this.

WHY NOT JONES?

Jones checks many of the same boxes that Britt does when it comes to production. He is efficient, is in a high volume pass offense, and has a very similar contract. The biggest knock on Jones is that he is the number two receiver on his team. Golden Tate lead the team in targets a year ago, and is a favorite of Matthew Stafford. My projection for Jones are as follows:

Player TRGS RECS recYDS recYPR recTDS PPR
Marvin Jones 107.47 62.33 832.86 13.36 4.84 176.04

This certainly makes Jones a good pick late, as he should have utility as a WR3 or FLEX play most weeks, but does not match the ceiling that Britt has as a number one receiver.