The NFL Custom Projections Tool – A Primer

The RotoViz NFL Custom Projections Wizard is an app where users can leverage ensemble projections from RotoViz writers and customize them to their league’s scoring. The goal? Arm fantasy players with accurate point projections from RotoViz’s vast array of sharp fantasy football minds.

Why is the Wizard useful?

The Custom Projection Wizard aggregates multiple, current projections from RotoViz’s army of analysts. Further, the Wizard empowers users with customizable point projections outside of standard structured scoring systems (Standard, PPR, DFS, etc), which can create frustration for those in leagues with innovative or boutique scoring systems.

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What can I learn from the Wizard?

For common scoring systems, the Custom Projection Wizard can highlight players with stronger scoring upside than their ADP suggests. This upside is based on the ensemble of projections created by RotoViz staff.

proj_app_scoringAs an example, the Wizard has been set to PPR scoring and projections calculated. To set the scoring system, simply click the pulldown menu and select whichever scoring system you prefer to use.

At left you will see the list of scoring systems. These include weekly scoring systems (Standard, PPR, Half PPR), Bestball scoring systems (MFL10, FFPC, DRAFT), and Daily Fantasy scoring systems (DraftKings, FanDuel, DRAFT). If users wish to create a completely custom system from the scoring categories shown above, simply opt for “Custom” and fill in as desired.

The user will also notice the “Specials” category on the far right column of scoring inputs. This will highlight unconventional scoring categories for leagues with highly custom scoring systems. At this time, only TE Bonus (for Tight End Premium leagues) is available; however, other specialized categories (such as First Downs) may be available in future revisions once those categories are added to the RotoViz Staff projection system.

After selecting a pre-loaded scoring system, or customizing to your desire, simply click the Calculate! button to query the staff projection database and calculate fantasy point projections. The table generated will show position (pos), team, player name (player), number of staff projections in that player’s profile (N), projected fantasy points (pts), and standard deviation of fantasy points (stdev). Each column may be filtered or searched, and general filters for position and team have been provided as well.

Projected Points & Standard Deviation

The Wizard provides a very simple feature that shouldn’t go overlooked – Standard Deviation. Once queried, the projection engine will calculate mean fantasy points (pts column) and standard deviation (stdev column) of all projections for that player. The standard deviation of all projections can provide insight about confidence or sentiment among the RotoViz analysts for each player.

As an example, I’ve set the Wizard for FFPC’s Bestball scoring system and calculated projections. I then filtered down to players with a scoring projection above 240 fantasy points in the FFPC system. After applying the filter, I then sorted by Standard Deviation to find players with the tightest dispersal among staff projections.

I might conduct this type of search if I desire high-floor players with little projected volatility in their week-to-week scoring. Likewise, I might also re-sort by Standard Deviation to find players that the staff may have differing opinions about, or provide more “boom-bust” upside for a roster.

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Filter by Position

The user may also filter down to focus on single positions, if they choose. At left, I’ve filtered down to only Quarterbacks. We see a few surprising results. I’ve highlighted Andy Dalton as QB7 in this use case because his typical ADP is in the neighborhood of QB16 to QB20. You may see other names in the table above that pique your interest.proj_app_upside

Filter by Team

Additionally, the user can filter projections down to team level. This type of filter may provide insight to users who wish to see how RotoViz analysts view competitive situations within a team. A use case representing the position battle between Baltimore RBs is shown below.

Wrapping up

As you can see, the RotoViz NFL Custom Projections App is incredibly powerful despite its straightforward presentation. The user can create custom projections for their league’s scoring system within seconds, then dissect the generated projections for insight into how RotoViz analysts view the upcoming NFL season.

Feel free to reach out to me @FantasyADHD if you have an idea or concern about the app. Best of luck in your leagues!