By my rough estimation, RotoViz publishes about 2,639,051 articles per year. I thought the math may have been off by 2-3,000, so I ran the numbers through The Intangibles Sim App and it backed up my initial calculation. There’s a reason why my RotoViz author account wasn’t deleted, and it’s not because of how integral my debut piece was to the site.
The reason why you are reading my words in a RotoViz article today is that this tweet from my friend Peter came across my timeline…
If you say you’re the originator of the monkey peeing metric on RotoViz then there’s a pretty good chance someone will one-up you. This is basically the fantasy football version of hold my beer.
How hard can it really be to insert a video of a monkey peeing on itself?
Look, I just did it. That’s one. Two more to go.
Okay, so hacking into my RotoViz author account1 just to talk about peeing monkeys is probably not worth the money you paid to subscribe to this fine website.2 Before I walk away, I should at least provide some fantasy football content. Fair warning though, as my other good friend John Solis pointed out, I’m not playing fantasy football this year. So, take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt…
It’s Yolo Time — Add Geno Smith (In Your 2QB League)
I figured writing about peeing monkeys was probably pissing off the Yolo QB originator, so I needed to find a way to get myself back in his good graces, and what better way than to talk about his favorite signal-caller: Geno Smith.
Mike Renner recently put all the blame for the New York Football Giants’ offensive woes on the shoulders of Elisha Nelson Manning. Renner points out how Manning is not a fit for the style of offense Ben McAdoo wants to run, stating Manning is not hitting his receivers in stride. It’s a fairly quick and informative read that shows Manning’s decline since 2011.
Of course, fantasy players are mainly concerned with fantasy points. My TwoQBs co-founder Greg Smith has been wary of the younger Manning’s fantasy relevance the past two offseasons. You can see from his TwoQBs QB Card that Manning’s production has dipped.
Manning went from appearing in the top-20 QBs nearly 70 percent of the time from 2012-2015 to performing at a QB2 level in only 50 percent of his games last season. And he was a top-10 QB just twice in 2016 after an average of seven times the two seasons prior. Manning’s 2QB ADP last draft season was QB11, but he finished as the QB23 on a points per game basis (Week 17 not included). With quarterbacks holding so much value in 2QB leagues, that’s not the type of production you want out of someone you drafted as your QB1.
So far, through three weeks of the season, Manning is the fantasy QB23 in points per game (13.6). Only seven quarterbacks to start three games have lower points per game averages than Manning (Josh McCown, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, Mike Glennon, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco). While Manning wasn’t drafted as a QB1 in 2QB leagues this year, his 2QB ADP of QB19 still puts him squarely in the second tier of starting quarterbacks — but he is underperforming his ADP to date. Of course, Odell Beckham wasn’t a factor the first two games, and their offensive line is putrid, but as Renner mentioned, Manning has declined in a number of relevant passing statistics in recent years (air yards/attempt, adjusted completion percentage, average depth of target, passer rating under pressure). According to Pro-Football-Reference, Manning’s AY/A has dropped from 7.3 in both 2014 and 2015 to 6.4 in 2016, and it’s at 5.6 this season. His adjusted net yards per attempt has also dipped from 6.74 in 2015 to 5.95 last season, and it’s at 4.31 this season.
Enter Geno Smith
While you might not consider Geno Smith to actually be good at football, there’s a likelihood that if Manning continues his listless production, McAdoo might hand Smith the reins — not necessarily out of want, but more to shake things up. Recommending the addition of Smith is more about Manning’s declining play and the opportunity that would present itself if Smith were to start. The greatest tool coaches have when it comes to giving their team a spark is by starting the backup quarterback.3
A total of 54 different quarterbacks started at least one game last season, and 53 the year before that (with Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Clausen starting for two different teams). We’ve already seen three quarterback changes through the first two weeks this season due to production and injury (Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Bradford). With such rampant turnover at the quarterback position, fantasy owners in 2QB leagues always need to be one step ahead of their leaguemates. Adding Smith off the waivers for free qualifies as such a move. Not only have so many backup quarterbacks started over the years, a number of them have performed as fantasy QB1s. Brian Hoyer, Cody Kessler, Case Keenum, and Matt Moore infiltrated the weekly top 10 last season.
If Smith does start, you’ve netted yourself a quarterback on the cheap, and one who would likely fetch some FAAB dollars in your 2QB league if he was still on the waiver wire when he’s named the starter. There’s always the option of tossing Smith back onto the waiver wire if there is no quarterback switch. If you recall, McAdoo already put his current starter on notice, calling Manning “sloppy.” There’s also been talk of McAdoo possibly giving up his playcalling duties to Mike Sullivan. They might want to go a different direction though…
Okay, Pete, you win. It’s really hard to insert more than two videos of a monkey peeing on itself in a fantasy football article.