Fantasy football is a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL 10 best ball drafts.
As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the two best values in each round; you can check out the top picks from Round 13 here.
Let’s take a stroll down to value town and look at what’s cooking in Round 12.
One of these seasons is not like the other.
Yes, DeSean Jackson had a down year in 2017, posting the second-lowest yardage totals of his career, while putting up the worst yards per catch (13.4) we’ve ever seen from the 31-year old. It marked only the second time in his career that his efficiency numbers (reFPOE) dipped into negative territory.
However, there’s no reason to think this is part of a bigger downward trend. Jackson dealt with a number of mitigating circumstances in 2017, and he’s in a solid position to bounce back.
Yet drafters are looking elsewhere for value, leaving him to fall to the 13th while the likes of Martavis Bryant and Sterling Shepard are snapped up ahead of him.
Shepard’s best year was 731 yards. Bryant’s was 765. Jackson has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in five of his nine seasons. He’s better at football than both WRs, and he also has arguably the best quarterback situation of the three.
Speaking of QBs, that could account for at least some of Jackson’s down year. Jameis Winston struggled, missing several games while battling a shoulder injury and never finding any chemistry with Jackson.
Jackson was actually better in the three games with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. However, Winston will be back at full health and the Buccaneers should now have some semblance of a running game with Ronald Jones in the fold.
It was also Jackson’s first year in Tampa Bay, and we know that WRs who change teams tend to underperform in their first seasons.
A full offseason of training with Winston will work wonders, and while I don’t expect Jackson to put up yet another 1,000-yard season with so many other playmakers present in Tampa Bay, beating this ridiculous 12th-round ADP is a cinch.
I was tempted to go with Allen Hurns here, but between the Cowboys low-volume pass offense and the aforementioned history of WRs changing teams, I’m going with the huge upside of David Njoku instead.
The tight end’s rookie season hasn’t received a lot of attention, but it should. His 386 yards and four TDs don’t jump off the page, but when factoring for age, he’s among an elite group.
Since 2007, only three 21-year-old rookie TEs have surpassed 350 yards receiving — Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Njoku.
Does age matter for projecting NFL TEs? Probably more so than any other position. TEs who played at 21-years old have accounted for 50 percent of TE1 finishes since 2000, with no other age group hitting even 15 percent.
Both Gronkowski and Hernandez posted 200 PPR fantasy points in Year Two. Njoku doesn’t have the benefit of Tom Brady throwing to him, but his QB play should be much improved in 2018.
Not only did Njoku put up solid rookie numbers with DeShone Kizer and Kevin Hogan as his QBs, but he did so while playing just 47 percent of offensive snaps, logging just one less reception than Seth DeValve.
The 29th-overall pick in 2017 is an elite TE prospect and is certain to have an increased role in his sophomore year. While I have mostly been targeting high-end and mid-range TEs in best ball drafts, there is no better breakout-TE candidate in 2018 then Njoku.