Takeaways from High-Stakes Startup Dynasty ADP

With the start of training camps nearly upon us, and the NFL draft some three months back in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look at where some of the notable young guys and big-name free agent signings are going in high-stakes startup dynasty drafts.

Fortunately, we’ve got FFPC dynasty draft ADP to do just that. There were 34 startup drafts that took place after the NFL Draft in April, or almost as many leagues as I’m in this season! Not really. Seriously, I can quit anytime I want. No, YOU have a problem.

Saquon Barkley

Overall: 2; Draft Position: 1.02; Positional Ranking: RB2

Before he has played a single NFL snap, Barkley, the overwhelming consensus top pick in rookie drafts, is being taken behind only Todd Gurley and ahead of proven producers Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. He has gone as high as first and as low as seventh. In terms of value, it’s hard to imagine Barkley’s increasing by much. Gurley won his owners league titles last season, and Johnson did so in 2016. Elliott finished second overall in his rookie season in 2016 and was RB3 in points per game last year, while Bell was the RB2 last year and RB3 in 2016, despite missing the first three games that season to suspension. Yet Barkley is already expected to be at least as productive.

I hate to suggest selling high on a rookie before training camp has even started, but if you’re a Barkley owner in a trade-happy FFPC dynasty league with owners of questionable player-evaluation skills, and you drafted Barkley because your team flopped its way to the 1.01, it’s not a stretch to think that you could improve at multiple positions for what you get in return.

Deshaun Watson

Overall: 39; Draft Position: 4.03; Positional Ranking: QB1

This seems crazy to me. Am I crazy? I feel like I’m crazy. Don’t get me wrong: Watson was enjoying one of the best-ever QB rookie years in recent memory the first half of 2017 before going down with an ACL tear after just seven games. I get the excitement, and I would love if Watson orchestrated a Russell Wilson-like offensive resurgence for a Texans team that has been an absolute wasteland of mediocrity at QB.

However, what this says is that Watson’s abbreviated rookie season is enough evidence for drafters to assume that not only would he have finished the year as an elite QB, but that, extrapolated, his career should rival that of Aaron Rodgers.1 If you’re drafting with an eye toward grabbing an elite QB – which I wouldn’t really recommend, because even in the FFPC’s dynasty leagues, enough starting QBs are left on the wire that you could conceivably stream the position if you’re savvy enough – you could wait a round or longer and grab Carson Wentz or Wilson, both of whom Rotoviz ranks higher than Watson, or Cam Newton, who is going two rounds later.

Jarvis Landry

Overall: 46; Draft Position: 4.10; Positional Ranking: WR19

Since his rookie season in 2014, Landry has finished as the WR30, WR10, WR15 and, last year, as the WR4. It seems as if every year there are arguments as to why Landry should not be as productive as he is. After all, he failed to even reach 1,000 receiving yards last season. The biggest knock against him is he needs volume to produce, and he now shares a Browns offense that will need to feed Josh Gordon, Duke Johnson, David Njoku, Carlos Hyde, Corey Coleman and possibly rookie Nick Chubb, with either Tyrod Taylor or untested Baker Mayfield at QB. There are reasons to be pessimistic.

And yet, is his situation that much different from his time in Miami? Landry had awful QB play there. There were capable pass-catchers in Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Kenyan Drake and, when he was still on the team, Jay Ajayi. Now Landry will work under new Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley, last seen calling plays for Antonio Brown. Looking at the ADP, Landry is going a full round later than Juju Smith-Schuster and Corey Davis, two second-year guys whose resumes are considerably lacking in comparison. Landry could be a steal. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Trey Burton

Overall: 69; Draft Position: 6.09; Positional Ranking: TE8

With Allen Robinson and Jordan Howard being taken in the second round – Robinson as the WR11 and Howard as the RB17 – drafters seem to have plenty of confidence that the Bears offense will be vastly improved. If they’re correct, then it would explain the ADP of Burton, which has steadily risen to what’s now the TE8, just behind Jimmy Graham and ahead of OJ Howard and Kyle Rudolph.

But is it warranted? Burton, 26, performed well in two games last year when starter Zach Ertz was out, but otherwise has done little in his first four seasons. However, there’s definitely room for optimism. New Bears coach Matt Nagy comes from Andy Reid’s Chiefs system, where Travis Kelce thrived, and Burton’s previous coach, Doug Pederson, was another Reid disciple. Furthermore, the FFPC scoring rules award 1.5 points per reception for tight ends, so prospecting for potential sleeper TEs never goes out of style.

OVERALLNAMETEAMPOSADPMIN DRAFTMAX DRAFT# DRAFTED
1Todd GurleyLARB1.351334
2Saquon BarkleyNYGRB31734
3Ezekiel ElliottDALRB4.152734
4DeAndre HopkinsHOUWR4.51934
5Odell BeckhamNYGWR5.061934
6Le'Veon BellPITRB5.6521034
7David JohnsonARIRB5.9721034
8Alvin KamaraNORB8.0631434
9Antonio BrownPITWR9.5371434
10Kareem HuntKCRB11.3271834
11Michael ThomasNOWR12.0381834
12Leonard FournetteJACRB13.1532034
13Mike EvansTBWR13.8852634
14Dalvin CookMINRB14.1592334
15Keenan AllenLACWR17.15112534
16Christian McCaffreyCARRB17.74132734
17Davante AdamsGBWR18.0992734
18Julio JonesATLWR19.06133234
19Melvin GordonLACRB19.91113434
20Travis KelceKCTE21.03143034
21Joe MixonCINRB22.09153534
22Amari CooperOAKWR26175434
23A.J. GreenCINWR28.62196034
24Zach ErtzPHITE29.21184534
25Derrius GuiceWASRB29.5174634
26Allen RobinsonCHIWR29.71214334
27Stefon DiggsMINWR29.74204434
28Tyreek HillKCWR30.24204834
29Devonta FreemanATLRB31.21195834
30Rob GronkowskiNETE33.47145634
31Jerick McKinnonSFRB34.06145434
32Rashaad PennySEARB35.5274934
33JuJu Smith-SchusterPITWR35.74246034
34Corey DavisTENWR35.85216934
35Jordan HowardCHIRB37.76236234
36Evan EngramNYGTE38.65236234
37Sony MichelNERB40.21125934
38Adam ThielenMINWR41.68236234
39Deshaun WatsonHOUQB42.2486534
40Aaron RodgersGBQB43.1586834
41T.Y. HiltonINDWR44.09306834
42Brandin CooksLAWR44.65217234
43Derrick HenryTENRB46.21178334
44Nick ChubbCLERB46.24326634
45Ronald JonesTBRB47.18336834
46Jarvis LandryCLEWR48.12317534
47Doug BaldwinSEAWR48.74267234
48Royce FreemanDENRB50.15347134
49Josh GordonCLEWR51.35348634
50Kenyan DrakeMIARB52.38298834
51Carson WentzPHIQB52.8588734
52LeSean McCoyBUFRB53.242011534
53Sammy WatkinsKCWR55.91318034
54Russell WilsonSEAQB56.32109834
55Kerryon JohnsonDETRB58.82459034
56Alshon JefferyPHIWR59.85418234
57Jay AjayiPHIRB60.262810134
58Alex CollinsBALRB63.47489534
59Tevin ColemanATLRB64.03459434
60Hunter HenryLACTE65.263113234
61David NjokuCLETE65.91469134
62D.J. MooreCARWR66.653111134
63Mark IngramNORB67.824310434
64Golden TateDETWR74.38529934
65Cam NewtonCARQB751712034
66Jimmy GrahamGBTE75.264211134
67Demaryius ThomasDENWR75.444610434
68Jimmy GaroppoloSFQB75.912510834
69Trey BurtonCHITE76.064811734
70Marvin JonesDETWR77.216010334
71O.J. HowardTBTE77.353710434
72Larry FitzgeraldARIWR78.624311734
73Kyle RudolphMINTE78.975411334
74Tarik CohenCHIRB79.55414134
75Dion LewisTENRB79.745212534
76Calvin RidleyATLWR79.885012934
77Cooper KuppLAWR80.215511234
78Lamar MillerHOURB80.795611434
79Devin FunchessCARWR80.794212534
80Will FullerHOUWR81.215212334
81Marlon MackINDRB82.655411834
82Aaron JonesGBRB86.856013734
83Patrick MahomesKCQB87.652213934
84DeVante ParkerMIAWR88.035913934
85Duke JohnsonCLERB88.565412834
86Greg OlsenCARTE88.975714334
87Tom BradyNEQB92.262014634
88George KittleSFTE92.945213034
89Andrew LuckINDQB93.212913434
90Christian KirkARIWR93.385114034
91Robert WoodsLAWR93.56814934
92Kirk CousinsMINQB95.152917034
93Courtland SuttonDENWR97.416115334
94Jared GoffLAQB98.442416834
95Jordan ReedWASTE99.067114434
96D'Onta ForemanHOURB100.655614334
97Isaiah CrowellNYJRB102.067314734
98Jamison CrowderWASWR102.796913634
99Chris ThompsonWASRB104.537714034
100Mike GesickiMIATE104.747414434
101Julian EdelmanNEWR104.825415934
102Carlos HydeCLERB105.065514034
103Jamaal WilliamsGBRB105.357114534
104Delanie WalkerTENTE105.597614834
105Sterling ShepardNYGWR106.126615534
106Michael CrabtreeBALWR106.567514734
107Michael GallupDALWR109.857314934
108Nelson AgholorPHIWR110.748416634
109Marcus MariotaTENQB111.413117234
110Matthew StaffordDETQB112.322816934
111Mike WilliamsLACWR113.746515234
112Anthony MillerCHIWR114.417415434
113JAC Team DefenseJACDF115.216016634
114Nyheim HinesINDRB116.478715234
115Drew BreesNOQB116.52519734
116C.J. AndersonCARRB116.748214934
117Kenny GolladayDETWR118.156614834
118Chris HoganNEWR1225520134
119Jack DoyleINDTE123.069217234
120Chris GodwinTBWR123.477519634
121Robby AndersonNYJWR124.828417434
122Jameis WinstonTBQB125.031718534
123Marquise GoodwinSFWR125.568715634
124Randall CobbGBWR127.949417434
125Rex BurkheadNERB128.419319034
126Josh DoctsonWASWR130.068820334
127Baker MayfieldCLEQB131.974919934
128Marshawn LynchOAKRB133.097817434
129Kalen BallageMIARB133.688818034
130Hayden HurstBALTE134.357218634
131Corey ClementPHIRB134.748719934
132Pierre GarconSFWR134.8510717834
133Ty MontgomeryGBRB136.218020234
134Tyler EifertCINTE137.359919634
135Lamar JacksonBALQB139.565920134
136Emmanuel SandersDENWR139.688220034
137Dez BryantDALWR139.797721034
138Kelvin BenjaminBUFWR141.749518334
139Matt RyanATLQB143.2143Undrafted33
140James WashingtonPITWR145.769621134
141Marqise LeeJACWR146.7611118634
142Giovani BernardCINRB147.3511518434
143LA Team DefenseLADF147.4710219734
144Ben RoethlisbergerPITQB147.623921234
145Cameron MeredithNOWR148.511320634
146Dante PettisSFWR149.127921034
147Dak PrescottDALQB149.8537Undrafted33
148Austin Seferian-JenkinsJACTE149.889319334
149Martavis BryantOAKWR1508522034
150Allen HurnsDALWR150.477722134
151Derek CarrOAKQB150.6532Undrafted33
152Eric EbronINDTE151.218721834
153Mitchell TrubiskyCHIQB153.2148Undrafted33
154Theo RiddickDETRB1549621834
155Dallas GoedertPHITE154.1212020634
156Devontae BookerDENRB157.2911021234
157John RossCINWR161.2611022134
158Kenny StillsMIAWR161.7611523434
159Jordy NelsonOAKWR163.1511223734
160Ricky Seals-JonesARITE164.7910322334
161Austin HooperATLTE165.3875Undrafted33
162Cameron BrateTBTE168.594622434
163Kenneth DixonBALRB169.1212724034
164LAC Team DefenseLACDF170.0911523034
165PHI Team DefensePHIDF170.2114020134
166Jordan WilkinsINDRB170.7612822334
167MIN Team DefenseMINDF17313720534
168Philip RiversLACQB174.0946Undrafted31
169Vance McDonaldPITTE174.94123Undrafted33
170Matt BreidaSFRB175.1813321634
171Justin TuckerBALPK176.4111921534
172Josh RosenARIQB176.9466Undrafted32
173Jonnu SmithTENTE179.8812623834
174Greg ZuerleinLAPK180.0614521434
175Latavius MurrayMINRB182.510223734
176Tyler LockettSEAWR183.71108Undrafted33
177Stephen GostkowskiNEPK184.2114922134
178Rishard MatthewsTENWR184.41115Undrafted33
179Paul RichardsonWASWR184.56126Undrafted32
180BAL Team DefenseBALDF185.2615922234
181James WhiteNERB191.12132Undrafted30
182HOU Team DefenseHOUDF194.1216122434
183DEN Team DefenseDENDF194.2114322434
184Jake ButtDENTE197.2483Undrafted30
185Jordan MatthewsNEWR201.88146Undrafted32
186Chris CarsonSEARB204.85133Undrafted28
187T.J. YeldonJACRB205.74139Undrafted30
188Sam DarnoldNYJQB20775Undrafted28
189Doug MartinOAKRB208.41140Undrafted31
190Charles ClayBUFTE210.5150Undrafted30
191Harrison ButkerKCPK210.82169Undrafted33
192Gerald EverettLATE212.74132Undrafted29
193Tre'Quan SmithNOWR213.94150Undrafted29
194Corey ColemanCLEWR214.38106Undrafted27
195Peyton BarberTBRB215.71151Undrafted29
196Wil LutzNOPK216.3217423934
197Jake ElliottPHIPK218.517924034
198NO Team DefenseNODF219.59183Undrafted33
199Bilal PowellNYJRB220.68137Undrafted28
200Alex SmithWASQB221.1552Undrafted24
201Jared CookOAKTE221.71116Undrafted27
202Austin EkelerLACRB223.24121Undrafted26
203Dede WestbrookJACWR225.5130Undrafted26
204Justin JacksonLACRB225.71168Undrafted28
205Matt BryantATLPK227.12204Undrafted33
206Chris BoswellPITPK227.76193Undrafted32
207D.J. CharkJACWR228.29147Undrafted27
208Jaylen SamuelsPITRB234.47145Undrafted26
209Chase EdmondsARIRB235.76134Undrafted25
210Tyrell WilliamsLACWR236.62148Undrafted26
211Antonio CallawayCLEWR236.85137Undrafted24
212Ito SmithATLRB238.09127Undrafted25
213CAR Team DefenseCARDF238.35185Undrafted30
214Spencer WareKCRB244.03163Undrafted24
215Robbie GouldSFPK244.09182Undrafted28
216Mark AndrewsBALTE246.88140Undrafted22
217Rico GathersDALTE247.24161Undrafted22
218John KellyLARB247.35146Undrafted23
219Benjamin WatsonNOTE249.06159Undrafted24
220Keke CouteeHOUWR251.29134Undrafted22
221Geronimo AllisonGBWR253.94132Undrafted22
222Donte MoncriefJACWR254.65138Undrafted22
223Matt PraterDETPK254.68198Undrafted26
224LeGarrette BlountDETRB255.97146Undrafted22
225NE Team DefenseNEDF262.32186Undrafted22
226Blake BortlesJACQB262.9477Undrafted16
227DeSean JacksonTBWR263.71163Undrafted21
228Keelan ColeJACWR264.18142Undrafted18
229Tavon AustinDALRB267.65140Undrafted19
230PIT Team DefensePITDF268.03186Undrafted22
231James ConnerPITRB268.21136Undrafted19
232Mark WaltonCINRB268.97148Undrafted19
233Case KeenumDENQB269.4796Undrafted15
234Equanimeous St. BrownGBWR270.97144Undrafted18
235DeMarco MurrayTENRB271.47125Undrafted17
236J'Mon MooreGBWR271.5135Undrafted19
237CHI Team DefenseCHIDF272.91175Undrafted19
238Javorius AllenBALRB272.94156Undrafted18
239Quincy EnunwaNYJWR273.85143Undrafted18
240DaeSean HamiltonDENWR283.06150Undrafted15
241Mason CrosbyGBPK283.94216Undrafted19
242Albert WilsonMIAWR284.41178Undrafted16
243Eli ManningNYGQB286.7190Undrafted10
244Ian ThomasCARTE287.38137Undrafted13
245Josh AllenBUFQB289.2982Undrafted12
246Tyrod TaylorCLEQB291.2694Undrafted10
247Elijah McGuireNYJRB291.32138Undrafted13
248Danny AmendolaMIAWR293.94186Undrafted14
249Bo ScarbroughDALRB294.41158Undrafted13
250Deon CainINDWR295174Undrafted14
251Ryan TannehillMIAQB295.7189Undrafted9
252Andy DaltonCINQB296.09105Undrafted9
253DET Team DefenseDETDF296.24207Undrafted15
254Dan BaileyDALPK296.26199Undrafted15
255Willie SneadBALWR296.56164Undrafted13
256Mohamed SanuATLWR302.97141Undrafted11
257Luke WillsonDETTE303143Undrafted11
258Zay JonesBUFWR304.62160Undrafted10
259SEA Team DefenseSEADF305.53185Undrafted12
260Graham GanoCARPK313.03224Undrafted11
261TEN Team DefenseTENDF313.35204Undrafted10
262Boston ScottNORB313.76217Undrafted10
263Samaje PerineTENRB314.29192Undrafted9
264Taywan TaylorWASWR314.29178Undrafted9
265Joe FlaccoBALQB314.5119Undrafted7
266Terrelle PryorNYJWR315.29192Undrafted9
267Adam ShaheenCHITE316.85181Undrafted8
268Nick VannettSEATE316.94150Undrafted8
269Daniel CarlsonMINPK318.85211Undrafted9
270KC Team DefenseKCDF319.38187Undrafted8
271Rod SmithDALRB319.56206Undrafted8
272Jonathan WilliamsNORB321.06185Undrafted7
273Ameer AbdullahDETRB321.44122Undrafted6
274Vernon DavisWASTE323.71204Undrafted7
275Kevin WhiteCHIWR323.79133Undrafted6
276Ted GinnNOWR323.85198Undrafted7
277Sam BradfordARIQB325.79139Undrafted5
278Corey GrantJACRB326.32177Undrafted6
279ARI Team DefenseARIDF326.74194Undrafted6
280Chris IvoryBUFRB328.91168Undrafted5
281Trent TaylorSFWR329.53178Undrafted5
282Frank GoreMIARB331.26193Undrafted5
283Dalton SchultzDALTE331.62159Undrafted4
284Blake JarwinDALTE331.65168Undrafted4
285C.J. ProsiseSEARB332.15172Undrafted4
286Ryan SuccopTENPK332.35223Undrafted5
287Chad WilliamsARIWR333.41198Undrafted4
288Ryan GrantINDWR333.91169Undrafted4
289Mason RudolphPITQB334.03144Undrafted3
290Laquon TreadwellMINWR334.74210Undrafted4
291CLE Team DefenseCLEDF335.41207Undrafted4
292Jordan AkinsHOUTE335.5217Undrafted4
293Mike GillisleeNERB335.65173Undrafted3
294Tyler KroftCINTE335.76219Undrafted4
295Brandon McManusDENPK336.09218Undrafted4
296John BrownBALWR336.76179Undrafted3
297Michael RobertsDETTE337.62190Undrafted3
298Malcolm MitchellNEWR337.82189Undrafted3
299Darren SprolesPHIRB338.26193Undrafted3
300Chester RogersINDWR338.88212Undrafted3
301Joe WilliamsSFRB339.03220Undrafted3
302Antonio GatesLACTE339.35226Undrafted3
303Dustin HopkinsWASPK340.03235Undrafted3
304Jonathan StewartNYGRB341.18182Undrafted2
305Ryan MathewsPHIRB341.71197Undrafted2
306SF Team DefenseSFDF341.91192Undrafted2
307Mike WallacePHIWR342.18199Undrafted2
308ATL Team DefenseATLDF342.47215Undrafted2
309BUF Team DefenseBUFDF342.62224Undrafted2
310Nick FolesPHIQB342.71214Undrafted2
311Ka'imi FairbairnHOUPK342.74221Undrafted2
312Josh LamboJACPK342.82227Undrafted2
313GB Team DefenseGBDF342.97222Undrafted2
314Phil DawsonARIPK343.32233Undrafted2
315Demarcus RobinsonKCWR345.21187Undrafted1
316Tyler HigbeeLATE345.32191Undrafted1
317Adrian PetersonARIRB345.32191Undrafted1
318Charcandrick WestKCRB345.56199Undrafted1
319Justin WatsonTBWR345.91211Undrafted1
320Terrance WilliamsDALWR346.06216Undrafted1
321Curtis SamuelCARWR346.24222Undrafted1
322Richie JamesWASWR346.24222Undrafted1
323WAS Team DefenseSFDF346.24222Undrafted1
324Leonte CarrooMIAWR346.32225Undrafted1
325Stephen AndersonHOUTE346.38227Undrafted1
326Clive WalfordNYJTE346.41228Undrafted1
327Josh AdamsPHIRB346.41228Undrafted1
328CIN Team DefenseCINDF346.47230Undrafted1
329Ed DicksonSEATE346.47230Undrafted1
330Terrance WestNORB346.47230Undrafted1
331NYG Team DefenseTBDF346.5231Undrafted1
332TB Team DefenseNYGDF346.5231Undrafted1
333MIA Team DefenseMIADF346.5231Undrafted1
334Cedrick WilsonDALWR346.5231Undrafted1
335Brice ButlerARIWR346.53232Undrafted1
336Tajae SharpeTENWR346.53232Undrafted1
337Amara DarbohSEAWR346.53232Undrafted1
338Steven HauschkaBUFPK346.56233Undrafted1
339Trey QuinnINDWR346.56233Undrafted1
340Daurice FountainWASWR346.56233Undrafted1
341Akrum WadleyTENRB346.59234Undrafted1
342Ryan SwitzerNEWR346.59234Undrafted1
343Adam VinatieriOAKPK346.59234Undrafted1
344Martellus BennettINDTE346.59234Undrafted1
345Erik SwoopeINDTE346.59234Undrafted1
346Braedon BowmanLACTE346.68237Undrafted1
347Braxton BerriosNEWR346.71238Undrafted1
348Cordarrelle PattersonNEWR346.74239Undrafted1

  1. Rodgers, it should be noted, is one spot behind Watson, indicating not everyone is completely sold on Watson – a significant portion believe he’s merely the second-best dynasty QB right now  (back)