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The Best Ever WR Duo and the Best Ever Receiving RB: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 8

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 8. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 8 totEPWk 8 totFPOE
Todd Gurley188.447.723.66.026.35.2
Saquon Barkley171.530.121.43.824.6-4.5
Adam Thielen161.242.820.25.413.811
Alvin Kamara157.522.422.53.222.64
Jarvis Landry152.3-38.519.0-4.820.1-8.2
James Conner148.928.321.34.020.118.1
Odell Beckham Jr.148.14.218.50.517.44.2
Stefon Diggs142.3217.80.318.49.5
Kareem Hunt136.728.717.13.625.9-6.3
DeAndre Hopkins134.832.416.94.112.713.5
Antonio Brown13415.219.12.21411.4
Zach Ertz133.41016.71.310.12.5
Davante Adams131.325.718.83.710.47.9
Julio Jones129.85.418.50.800
A.J. Green127.72216.02.89.88.8
David Johnson127.5-7.315.9-0.914.1-0.1
Ezekiel Elliott126.51.918.10.300
Christian McCaffrey124.110.217.71.518.13.5
T.J. Yeldon120.813.215.11.713.52.5
Travis Kelce116.116.114.52.016.93
Tyreek Hill115.145.914.45.76.83.2
James White114.729.216.44.200
Golden Tate114.13.816.30.521.3-9
Juju Smith-Schuster1143.416.30.59.9-2.6
Michael Thomas113.735.216.25.08.74.4
Melvin Gordon112.845.718.87.600
Robert Woods111.22913.93.610.81.2
Michael Crabtree110-1613.8-2.07.4-1.3
Emmanuel Sanders109.235.313.74.46.43.6
Mike Evans109.137.915.65.423.56.4
Tyler Boyd107.633.713.54.218.210.4
Eric Ebron106.910.413.41.37.35.4
Joe Mixon106.4517.70.820.18.7
Carlos Hyde104.6-26.414.9-3.86.9-5.8
John Brown103.210.812.91.411.3-5.5
Kenyan Drake1028.712.81.110.213.3
Nelson Agholor99.7-11.612.5-1.511.2-1.9
Sterling Shepard97.38.912.21.112.3-4.9
Adrian Peterson95.717.113.72.415.213.4
Keenan Allen95.2713.61.000
Willie Snead94-9.711.8-1.217.5-7.1
Larry Fitzgerald93.2-11.511.7-1.421.32.9
George Kittle92.315.111.51.912.3-1.6
Demaryius Thomas91.62.611.50.311.2-5.2
Jordan Howard90.9-1413.0-2.014.3-0.2
Corey Davis90.7-15.213.0-2.200
Lamar Miller90.7-3.513.0-0.5172.3
Donte Moncrief89.8-10.511.2-1.310.2-0.8
Nyheim Hines89.45.111.20.610.40.1
Alex Collins87.9811.01.08.16.2
Sammy Watkins87.414.910.91.915.814.9
Brandin Cooks86.827.712.44.013.5-2.2
Javorius Allen86.52.310.80.391.8
Jared Cook86.115.312.32.289.4
Phillip Lindsay85.922.810.72.916.33.9
Dion Lewis85.9-3.312.3-0.500
Marshawn Lynch85.7-6.714.3-1.100
Antonio Callaway82.6-25.310.3-3.210.73.9
Ty Hilton823.313.70.611-6.6
Dede Westbrook81.614.210.21.812.4-0.4
Marvin Jones80.514.211.52.014.915.8
Jimmy Graham80.5-9.511.5-1.48.7-5.6
Taylor Gabriel79.87.911.41.190.2
David Njoku79.8-7.111.4-1.000
Devin Funchess78.411.711.21.75.10.6
Chris Godwin78.47.611.21.110.5-5.3
Tarik Cohen77.838.411.15.57.310.7
Cooper Kupp7729.312.84.900
Keelan Cole77-4.59.6-0.64.7-0.9
Sony Michel75.7-2.412.6-0.400
Kenny Golladay75.620.110.82.91.60.6
Kerryon Johnson75.513.910.82.013.81.3
Kyle Rudolph75.20.99.40.117.7-9.8
DeSean Jackson74.243.110.66.214.12.1
Chester Rogers73.2-5.79.2-0.71.5-1.5
Will Fuller7333.310.44.89.713.7
Alshon Jeffery72.913.914.62.86.51
Chris Carson72.80.912.10.218.71.7
Jalen Richard71.9210.30.3131.4
Latavius Murray70.720.58.82.617.13.4
Tevin Coleman70.613.110.11.900
Peyton Barber70.6-14.410.1-2.113.11.4
Quincy Enunwa70.4-13.711.7-2.300
Allen Robinson70.3-4.811.7-0.800
Trey Burton69.216.49.92.37-2.2
Adam Humphries68.9-11.99.8-1.716.8-2.2
Isaiah Crowell68.727.98.63.57.5-2.7
Jordan Reed68.5-2.99.8-0.414.9-4.1
Christian Kirk67.617.68.52.210.13.1
Austin Hooper67.59.69.61.400
Danny Amendola67.27.58.40.98.21.1
Cole Beasley67.112.99.61.800
Alfred Blue67-14.88.4-1.97.6-3.4
Alfred Morris65.8-19.19.4-2.72.9-0.1
Matt Breida65.718.98.22.48.8-4.6
Bilal Powell64.9-2.69.3-0.400
Pierre Garcon64.7-20.79.2-3.000
Wendell Smallwood64.38.79.21.28.36.3
Austin Ekeler63.127.79.04.000
Chris Thompson633.212.60.65.3-1.1
Courtland Sutton61.30.17.70.073.8
LeSean McCoy61.3-15.410.2-2.600
Marlon Mack61.212.515.33.1235.9
Ricky Seals-Jones61-14.47.6-1.85.8-2.6
Jermaine Kearse60.8-22.38.7-3.215.4-9.4
Frank Gore60-3.37.5-0.411.7-4.9
Laquon Treadwell59.4-6.87.4-0.98.1-2.6
Kelvin Benjamin59.4-17.78.5-2.500
Tyler Lockett59.344.28.56.357.7
Jamaal Williams58.1-15.18.3-2.25.91
O.J. Howard57.826.18.33.7133.8
Ryan Grant57.11.99.50.300
Jordy Nelson56.618.18.12.65.7-3.3
Calvin Ridley56.5478.16.700
Corey Clement56.4-2.29.4-0.44-2.5
Jeff Heuerman56.4-228.1-3.112.9-5.5
Mohamed Sanu56.317.78.02.500
Albert Wilson55.635.17.95.000
Robby Anderson55.5107.91.400
Derrick Henry55-10.87.9-1.500
Zay Jones54.8-7.27.8-1.000
Amari Cooper54.52.49.10.400
Duke Johnson53.6-2.66.7-0.35.2-1.6
Royce Freeman53.17.97.61.100
Rob Gronkowski52.719.88.83.300
Keke Coutee52.4-5.813.1-1.500
Benjamin Watson52.2-0.28.70.000
Chris Ivory52.2-4.37.5-0.600
Ty Montgomery50.5-2.17.2-0.33.6-1.8
Randall Cobb50.30.212.60.18.1-0.1
Kenny Stills49.918.27.12.600
Mike Williams49.4247.13.400
Giovani Bernard49.45.912.41.500
Phillip Dorsett49.22.68.20.400
Allen Hurns49-14.27.0-2.000
Devontae Booker48.9-1.16.1-0.111.32.8
Chad Williams48.9-20.66.1-2.62.91.2
Nick Boyle48.9-21.36.1-2.74.1-2.4
Theo Riddick48.8-99.8-1.800
Geronimo Allison48.713.69.72.71.60.8
Jakeem Grant48.49.36.11.212.6-5
Josh Doctson48.4-16.58.1-2.87.52.4
Anthony Miller48.20.68.00.1121.4
Chris Hogan47.813.66.81.900
Mike Davis47.77.28.01.25.9-1.4
Paul Richardson478.57.81.48.2-2.1
Kendrick Bourne46.61.55.80.216-1.9
Zach Pascal46.6-12.87.8-2.11.5-0.9
Taywan Taylor45.5-1.56.5-0.200
Tyrell Williams45.243.16.56.200
Evan Engram44.7-0.28.90.016.2-2.7
Vance McDonald44.316.87.42.83.93.8
Jordan Wilkins44.2-6.56.3-0.910.4
Mark Andrews43.85.65.50.76.80.3
Trent Taylor43.5-5.76.2-0.83.3-1.6
Torrey Smith43.41.77.20.300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling438.77.21.57.15.4
Ito Smith42.98.47.21.400
LeGarrette Blount42.9-0.26.10.02.70.9
D.J. Moore4215.86.02.311.14
Julian Edelman421.414.00.500
Charles Clay41.9-12.66.0-1.800
Josh Gordon41.68.58.31.700
Jarius Wright41.615.90.14.3-1.8
Ryan Griffin41.5-17.56.9-2.900
Nick Chubb41.111.75.11.515.4-5.9
Tajae Sharpe40.94.95.80.700
Jesse James40.512.85.81.84.7-1.8
Kyle Juszczyk39.811.45.01.41.6-0.6
Ted Ginn39.30.89.80.200
Jay Ajayi394.49.81.100
Geoff Swaim38.66.96.41.200
C.J. Uzomah38.58.94.81.15.9-5.9
Mark Ingram38.41.312.80.410.41.8
Seth Roberts37.49.66.21.684.2
Michael Gallup37.3-2.35.3-0.300
Marquise Goodwin37.125.56.24.366.5
Jack Doyle37.1-1.112.4-0.4127
Martavis Bryant36.9-0.57.4-0.100
D.J. Chark36.4-8.55.2-1.29.2-1.1
Brandon Marshall35.8-5.26.0-0.900
Terrelle Pryor35.613.95.92.300
Mike Gesicki35.6-55.1-0.76.7-1.3
Rashard Higgins35.510.97.12.200
Antonio Gates35.4-5.15.1-0.700
Jamison Crowder35.20.78.80.200
Dallas Goedert34.919.95.02.81.78.5
Aaron Jones34.614.96.93.08.18.5
Dalvin Cook34.4-4.911.5-1.600
Chris Conley34.21.24.90.200
Doug Martin34.1-8.84.9-1.315.3-4.4
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.1-7.16.6-1.400
Doug Baldwin32.9-36.6-0.66.1-1.5
Nick Vannett31.8-6.25.3-1.06.8-4.2
Cameron Brate319.45.21.62.7-0.4
Chase Edmonds31-5.63.9-0.73.5-0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson30.87.24.41.000
Greg Olsen30.67.67.71.98.37.3
Rashaad Penny30.6-4.96.1-1.000
Andre Holmes30.5-11.24.4-1.600
Ryan Switzer30.4-3.34.3-0.51.7-1.7
Tyler Eifert30.48.57.62.100
Maurice Harris30.3-8.57.6-2.12.61.4
Marcus Murphy30.3-8.57.6-2.100
Chris Herndon28.817.34.82.93.94.7
Rhett Ellison28.62.14.10.31.5-1.5
James O'Shaughnessy28.4-9.34.7-1.600
Tre'Quan Smith27.913.24.72.25.9-1.1
John Ross27.7-1.15.5-0.200
Deonte Thompson27.4-5.14.6-0.900
Will Dissly25.410.26.42.600
Jordan Thomas25.36.74.21.1117.9
Malcolm Brown25.3-14.2-0.20.50.2
Ian Thomas25.3-5.65.1-1.11.70.8
Spencer Ware25.33.23.60.500
David Moore25.232.45.06.5712.7
Gerald Everett24.2-4.43.5-0.630.2
Devonta Freeman24.1-1012.1-5.000
Alex Erickson24.1-10.94.8-2.26-4.5
Jacquizz Rodgers24.1-2.74.8-0.56.20.7
Corey Grant23.9-4.24.8-0.800
Wayne Gallman23.9-4.94.0-0.80.7-0.8
Maxx Williams23.63.93.90.700
Chris Moore22.9-0.73.3-0.13.20.7
Josh Reynolds22.47.24.51.410.48.6
Damion Ratley22.10.57.40.25.2-2.1
James Washington22.1-6.24.4-1.200
Jordan Matthews22144.42.87.95.4
Raheem Mostert21.54.54.30.92.4-0.6
Trenton Cannon21.4-1.87.1-0.68.6-3.4
Matt LaCosse21.4-43.6-0.78.2-1.3
Tavon Austin21.116.43.52.700
Ronald Jones20.9-1.35.2-0.32.3-1.2
Vernon Davis20.612.43.42.14.8-1.7
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Bruce Ellington20.42.86.80.900
Tyler Higbee20.4-1.43.4-0.21.20.4
Kapri Bibbs20.25.35.11.300
Jonnu Smith20.2-10.83.4-1.800
Virgil Green19.95.53.30.900
DeVante Parker19.75.76.61.913.75.7
Josh Bellamy19.6-0.13.90.08.3-0.6
Rex Burkhead19.4-4.76.5-1.600
C.J. Ham19.3-4.52.8-0.63.7-3.6
Jason Croom19.143.20.700
Lance Kendricks18.90.83.20.100
Aldrick Robinson18.314.23.12.43.3-0.4
Luke Willson18.2-3.43.0-0.65.8-0.7
Jaron Brown18.18.24.52.100
Demarcus Robinson18.1-1.33.0-0.21.6-0.5
Josh Perkins18.1-6.46.0-2.12-2
Jake Butt17.8-1.35.9-0.400
Mark Walton17.6-6.13.5-1.22.20.5
Demetrius Harris17.58.94.42.200
James Develin17.5-92.9-1.500
Jordan Akins17.20.72.90.100
Justin Hardy17.1-55.7-1.700
Erik Swoope16.916.43.43.300
C.J. Anderson16.833.40.62.4-0.4
Luke Stocker16.443.30.800
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Jordan Leggett16.2-3.93.2-0.81.4-1.4
Eric Tomlinson15.8-4.33.2-0.900
J.J. Nelson15.8-8.22.6-1.42.5-1.7
Justin Hunter15.4-10.35.1-3.46.3-2.8
Leonard Fournette14.8-1.87.4-0.900
Curtis Samuel14.412.64.84.24.61.2
Neal Sterling14.4-3.73.6-0.91.60.1
Marvin Hall14.312.42.92.500
Bennie Fowler14.3-3.47.2-1.712.7-3.9
Josh Hill13.912.52.82.500
Dante Pettis13.84.84.61.61.6-1.6
Andre Roberts13.7-83.4-2.01.2-1.2
Mo Alie-Cox13.54.93.41.227.6
Scott Simonson13.4-8.33.4-2.100
Darren Sproles13.3-6.113.3-6.100
Michael Roberts13.115.24.45.12.2-2.2
Cody Latimer13.13.74.41.200
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
David Grinnage12.8-0.74.3-0.28.2-1.5
Austin Carr12.8-1.62.6-0.32.4-2.4
Russell Shepard12.8-2.74.3-0.900
Equanimeous St. Brown12.77.24.22.43.31.8
Robert Foster12.7-10.63.2-2.700
Seth DeValve12.61.86.30.911.1-0.3
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.11.60.2
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.11.90.5
Josh Adams12.20.13.10.06.31.4
Zach Line12.1-2.13.0-0.500
Nick O'Leary11.97.36.03.700
Delanie Walker11.8-2.611.8-2.600
Hayden Hurst11.70.92.90.23.97
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Rico Gathers11.4-4.82.3-1.000
Travis Benjamin11.4-4.93.8-1.600
Blake Jarwin11-6.32.2-1.300
Dontrelle Inman10.80.410.80.410.80.4
Tim Patrick10.75.22.71.32.48.3
Derek Carrier10.7-5.23.6-1.700
Darren Fells10.610.42.12.11.50.1
Jermaine Gresham10.52.32.60.64.30.9
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Kenjon Barner10.2-3.93.4-1.300
T.J. Jones10-3.43.3-1.100
Cody Core10-45.0-2.000
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Rod Smith9.8-4.72.5-1.200
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.21.5-1.5
Stevan Ridley9.5-1.71.9-0.33.20.1
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.51.3-0.2
Deontay Burnett9.32.74.71.464.1
De'Anthony Thomas9.13.43.01.100
Anthony Sherman8.79.81.72.01.30.7
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Gus Edwards8.5-1.42.8-0.52.40.5
Rishard Matthews8.4-4.34.2-2.200
Kenneth Dixon7.92.57.92.500
Antony Auclair7.802.60.000
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.31.30.1
Kevin White7.72.33.91.24.5-2.9
Levine Toilolo7.4-0.31.9-0.11.21
Vyncint Smith7.4-3.63.7-1.800
Derrick Willies7.31.87.31.800
Jamaal Charles6.8-3.43.4-1.700
Brandon LaFell6.76.26.76.26.76.2
Darius Jennings6.2-1.32.1-0.400
Dion Sims6.2-3.33.1-1.700
Nick Williams6.1-2.42.0-0.81.6-1.6
Michael Floyd6.1-3.13.1-1.600
Lee Smith6-0.76.0-0.700
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Josh Malone6-3.83.0-1.900
Xavier Grimble5.91.52.00.500
Dwayne Harris5.60.41.40.10.80.5
Logan Paulsen5.57.31.82.400
Eric Saubert5.5-1.91.8-0.600
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Logan Thomas5.40.71.80.200
Tommy Bohanon5.4-2.41.8-0.800
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Damien Williams5.3-0.41.1-0.100
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
A.J. Derby5.16.42.63.200
Justin Jackson5.1-0.52.6-0.300
DaeSean Hamilton4.92.54.92.500
Alan Cross4.8-3.22.4-1.600
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Orson Charles4.7-2.91.6-1.000
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Durham Smythe4.6-4.61.5-1.51.6-1.6
Jacob Hollister4.524.52.000
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Rashad Greene4.5-0.82.3-0.43.1-1.2
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Ray-Ray McCloud4.4-0.21.5-0.100
Dalton Schultz4.4-2.24.4-2.200
Dan Arnold4.31.24.31.200
Cole Wick4.3-4.34.3-4.300
Ed Dickson4.29.24.29.24.29.2
Alex Armah4.22.81.10.700
Shaun Wilson3.90.51.30.200
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
Tre Madden3.8-1.81.0-0.50.5-0.4
C.J. Prosise3.61.63.61.600
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
Derrick Coleman3.40.60.90.200
Andy Janovich3.33.21.11.100
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Freddie Martino3.3-3.33.3-3.300
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
De'Lance Turner3.20.91.60.500
Charone Peake3.1-0.71.6-0.41.60.8
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Chris Manhertz3.1-1.93.1-1.900
DeAndre Carter31.11.50.600
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.61.4-1.4
Matt Lengel3-1.61.5-0.81.6-0.2
Brian Parker2.9-2.91.5-1.500
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Samaje Perine2.8-1.61.4-0.800
Breshad Perriman2.7-1.11.4-0.61.2-1.2
Dwayne Allen2.7-2.12.7-2.100
Jeremy Sprinkle2.7-2.72.7-2.700
Taiwan Jones2.7-2.71.4-1.400
Ameer Abdullah2.61.31.30.70.61
Roosevelt Nix2.40.51.20.300
Blake Bell2.4-0.12.4-0.12.4-0.1
Ben Braunecker2.3-2.32.3-2.300
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
Jaylen Samuels1.8-0.11.8-0.11.8-0.1
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
Stacy Coley1.8-1.81.8-1.800
Russell Gage1.70.21.70.200
Cameron Batson1.7-0.71.7-0.700
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Marcus Kemp1.60.11.60.100
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Robert Tonyan Jr.1.6-1.61.6-1.61.6-1.6
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Riley McCarron1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Jordan Franks1.52.71.52.71.52.7
Justin Watson1.501.50.01.50
Jamize Olawale1.5-0.21.5-0.200
Kalen Ballage1.5-0.50.5-0.20.6-0.1
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Dontrell Hilliard1.421.42.01.42
Khadarel Hodge1.411.41.000
Tim White1.411.41.000
Richie James1.40.31.40.300
Brice Butler1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Jehu Chesson1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Marcedes Lewis1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Patrick DiMarco1.32.11.32.100
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Dwayne Washington0.9-0.70.9-0.700
DeAndre Washington0.5-0.10.5-0.10.5-0.1
David Fluellen0.5-0.30.5-0.300
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Detrez Newsome0.5-0.50.5-0.500
Rod Streater0.5-1.60.5-1.600
Elijhaa Penny0.3-0.10.3-0.100
Derek Watt0.3-0.20.3-0.200
J.J. Jones000.00.000

Observations

  • Todd Gurley is unlikely to relinquish his lead in rushing expected points this season. No other player has even 90 rushing EP on the season — Gurley has over 120. The difference between Gurley and runner-up James Conner exceeds that between Conner and Marshawn Lynch. Lynch ranks 18th. Gurley not only leads the league in rushing EP and total EP. He also leads in total FPOE. Only once since 2000 has a player started a season faster.gurley2018
  • If I had extended that list to the top-six starts, the next name would be Adam Thielen. His first half season in 2018 is the best first half any WR has had in the last 19 years. He’s had at least 100 yards in every game so far.
  • Yet, Thielen is still not even second in total EP this season. That distinction goes to Saquon Barkley. Unlike Gurley, Barkley is getting most of his work in the passing game. The 17.4 receiving EP he garnered last week dwarfed his 7.2 rushing EP. Only two players — not two RBs, two players — have more catches than Barkley in 2018.barkley-recIn fact, no RB has ever had more catches through the first eight weeks of a season since 2000.barkley-2018
  • For as good as Thielen is, it’s possible he’s not even the best WR on his own team. After posting 18.4 receiving expected points in Week 8, Stefon Diggs joins Thielen in the top four in receiving EP on the season. Diggs enjoyed his sixth game with double-digit targets and his third game with at least 10 catches — only Thielen and Zach Ertz have as many. Diggs has now surpassed Thielen in expected points in each of the last two games. Over the last two weeks, only Jarvis Landry has more targets and more receiving EP, and no player has more receptions.diggs-peers Diggs’ efficiency still trails many of his peers’, but he is starting to show why opposing defenses have been treating him as Minnesota’s WR1.
  • Speaking of Ertz, he’s quietly having a top-12 season in terms of total EP, ranking ahead of stars at other positions such as Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson. Philadelphia recently traded for Golden Tate, which figures to lower Ertz’s target floor. But he should still be able to produce similar numbers to a WR1 over the rest of the season. With scoring down at the TE position across the board, the advantage Ertz gives your fantasy team is massive.
  • After his sixth straight double-digit target game, Landry moves into fifth overall in total EP. No player has seen double-digit targets in more games. He remains the least efficient player in all of football, but the recent coaching change in Cleveland provides some hope for a turnaround. Landry is still a buy-low candidate. The Buy Low Machine agrees — Week 9 appears to be Landry’s friendliest matchup of the season.cle-wr-buy-low
  • Marlon Mack ran away with the Indianapolis backfield and didn’t look back. He not only maintains a massive lead over Nyheim Hines in rushing EP, but also in receiving EP over the last two weeks.mack-hines And he has made the most of his touches, producing nearly 20 points over expected in that span. With Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton both returning to full health, there may not be much work for Hines left.

 

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)

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