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Dollars Per Opportunity: James Conner Smash Week

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.

It was a big Week 7 as my cover boy Marlon Mack hit for a whopping 7.9x value. I also hit on both QBs — Mitchell Trubisky (6.5x) and Cam Newton (4.4x) — as well as Tarik Cohen (4.4x) and David Njoku (3.4x). Overall I went 7-4 (39-34 overall). Yes, I did recommend Jermaine Kearse (0x), but not blaming process on that one.

This week’s version is a bit abbreviated in regards to analysis due to some #life getting in the way, but the advice is still sound!

Let’s get to the Week 8 plays!

Week 8 $/Opp Cheat Sheet

QUARTERBACK

Case Keenum | 33.7 Opp Score | $5,100 DK

If you’re trying to fit in the high-priced, stud running backs then one of the ways to save is by jamming in Case Keenum at QB. Recency bias will keep his ownership a lot lower than it should be, and he’s likely to get into a shootout with the Chiefs, who have allowed 20 or more DK points to opposing QBs in five-of-seven games. The fact that Royce Freeman has been ruled out is just another reason for the Broncos to air it out on Sunday.

RUNNING BACK

James Conner | 32.9 Opp Score | $7,700 DK

Le’Veon who? James Conner has practically nullified any effects of Bell’s holdout as the Steelers have been feeding him as if he were Bell himself. The Steelers are huge home favorites (-8), but even if the Browns manage to keep it close we’ve seen Conner be practically game-script proof. Conner comes in as the 11th-best value on the board and is someone I will have exposure to in almost all of my lineups.

conner-script

Kareem Hunt | 28.0 Opp Score | $7,100 DK

The Broncos have already allowed four RBs to score 20 or more DK points,1 and after a slow start Kareem Hunt has been getting more involved in the Chiefs offense. What’s especially encouraging is his involvement in the passing game as he’s seen six targets in consecutive games. With the Chiefs as huge, home favorites (-10) we should expect another heavy workload.

Marlon Mack | 20.9 Opp Score | $5,400 DK

I hit big on Marlon Mack last week at low ownership, and there’s a good chance we get him at low ownership again this week. He showed that he’s the bell-cow in the Colts offense, but he was slapped with the questionable tag before putting in a full practice on Friday, a good sign toward being active. With the quality of expensive RBs and other solid options around Mack’s price, he might dip under 10 percent ownership, and if you’re of the opinion that the Colts will win in Oakland,2 then you should absolutely love Mack again this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Odell Beckham Jr. | 26.2 Opp Score | $7,500 DK

In GPPs, Odell Beckham Jr. will be attached to low ownership, and despite being over $7,000 he is the fifth-best value on the board. The volume continues to be there with a weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) of 0.72.

Emmanuel Sanders | 23.5 Opp Score | $6,500 DK

The main receiver I’m pairing with Keenum is Emmanuel Sanders, who is far too inexpensive in what should be a heavy pass-volume game for the Broncos. His involvement in the offense has been on the uptick recently — see his WOPR trend from the Weekly Stat Explorer — which should culminate with a smash game in Kansas City.

sanders-wopr

Larry Fitzgerald | 14.5 Opp Score | $4,400 DK

Larry Fitzgerald is finally getting healthy after an early groin injury and the narrative coming out of the Arizona coaches’ offices is that he needs to get more involved. He’s seen eight targets in back-to-back games and double-digit expected fantasy points (reEP) in three of the last four. At this price, you aren’t going to get that kind of target floor anywhere else.

fitzgerald thru 7

Martavis Bryant | 12.0 Opp Score | $3,700 DK

The Raiders passing game has been a total disaster, but Martavis Bryant now becomes more of a focal point, and his targets were already more valuable than those for Jordy Nelson.

Raiders receiving thru 7

At $3,700, Bryant has the chance to smash value if he can hit on a couple big plays, and I wouldn’t be totally opposed to playing him in cash if you need the salary relief.

TIGHT END

Vance McDonald | 11.6 Opp Score | $3,700 DK

I love getting exposure to tight ends on high-scoring offenses, and the Steelers are implied for 30 points this week. I’ve talked before how Vance McDonald has usurped Jesse James as the primary tight end in this offense and given his ceiling he makes for a great GPP play. As the fourth-best dollar per opportunity value he makes for a solid cash option as well.

Using the DFS Lineup Optimizer and locking in some of the plays above I was able to put together this lineup:

wk8-dfs

Good luck in Week 8!

  1. I combined Buck Allen and Alex Collins from Week 3  (back)
  2. Colts are -3 on the road  (back)

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