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Outperformers, Disappointments, and Shockers: What Expected Fantasy Points Are Telling Us Now

After four weeks, we have a pretty good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points tell most of that story, so looking at the leaders in total expected points should give us an idea of who will continue to lead the way over the next 12 weeks.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table lists the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points.1 Below the table I’ll offer a few thoughts.

PLAYERPPR.Q1ruEP.Q1ruFPOE.Q1reEP.Q1reFPOE.Q1Total EPTotal FPOE
Alvin Kamara130.939.217.171.92.7111.119.8
Adam Thielen99.30087.212.187.212.1
Antonio Brown74.20086.5-12.386.5-12.3
Saquon Barkley90.333.310.752.3-685.64.7
Todd Gurley104.253.64.229.716.783.320.9
Juju Smith-Schuster78.60081.9-3.381.9-3.3
Melvin Gordon101.52613.653.48.579.422.1
Michael Thomas104.50078.126.478.126.4
Jarvis Landry61.20077.9-16.777.9-16.7
DeAndre Hopkins85.60.8-1.574.411.975.210.4
James Conner75.637.73.537.4-375.10.5
Carlos Hyde6464.4-5.910.4-4.974.8-10.8
Julio Jones80.30.70.473.55.774.26.1
Zach Ertz63.70072.9-9.272.9-9.2
Odell Beckham Jr.650.80.170.3-6.271.1-6.1
Golden Tate85.80.9069.715.270.615.2
Stefon Diggs771.7-0.868.27.969.97.1
Davante Adams74.50069.84.769.84.7
Ezekiel Elliott88.138.216.430.82.76919.1
Marshawn Lynch6442622.7-6.764.7-0.7
T.J. Yeldon6428.9-2.434.72.863.60.4
Corey Davis59.20063.1-3.963.1-3.9
Jared Cook750062.912.162.912.1
Nelson Agholor50.951.8060.8-12.462.6-12.4
Ty Hilton62.40061.31.161.31.1
A.J. Green79.70060.818.960.818.9
David Johnson60.131.1-0.429.5-0.160.6-0.5
Christian McCaffrey64.825.81.334.82.960.64.2
Robert Woods76.22.8-0.957.716.660.515.7
Mike Evans89.60060.529.160.529.1
Keenan Allen58.20059.5-1.359.5-1.3
Cooper Kupp84.13.4-2.155.82759.224.9
Quincy Enunwa54.80058.2-3.458.2-3.4
Tyler Boyd73.40.5056.516.45716.4
Brandin Cooks78.81.50.154.322.955.823
Michael Crabtree42.40055.6-13.255.6-13.2
Jordan Howard44.137.2-10.918.2-0.455.4-11.3
Taylor Gabriel561.7152.40.954.11.9
Kenny Golladay680053.914.153.914.1
John Brown67.21.6-1.250.915.952.514.7
Marvin Jones50.30052-1.752-1.7
James White76.310.96.141.118.25224.3
Amari Cooper54.92.1-1.249.54.551.63.3
Allen Robinson46.70051.2-4.551.2-4.5
Eric Ebron500050.9-0.950.9-0.9
Dion Lewis49.922-1.728.31.350.3-0.4
Giovani Bernard55.32211.527.4-5.649.45.9
Sterling Shepard58.900499.9499.9
Tevin Coleman51.428.7-1.7195.447.73.7
Javorius Allen53.922.31.925.14.647.46.5
Geronimo Allison59.9004712.94712.9
Lamar Miller41.931.5-915.4446.9-5
Adrian Peterson56.636.658.56.545.111.5
Dede Westbrook56.81.5-143.612.745.111.7
George Kittle55.6004510.64510.6
Alex Collins48.829.5-1.715.45.644.93.9
Antonio Callaway32.22.2-1.542.5-1144.7-12.5
Nyheim Hines57.38.62.835.810.144.412.9
Chris Godwin52.30043.78.643.78.6
Demaryius Thomas36.40043.6-7.243.6-7.2
Phillip Dorsett44.50043.21.343.21.3
Travis Kelce50.90042.38.642.38.6
Randall Cobb42.50042.20.342.20.3
Will Fuller61.30042.119.242.119.2
Theo Riddick35.53.9-1.237.6-4.841.5-6
Bilal Powell4319.5-320.95.640.42.6
Joe Mixon35.627.9-411.60.139.5-3.9
Jimmy Graham38.90039.3-0.439.3-0.4
Matt Breida53.72213.217.31.239.314.4
Willie Snead43.80039.34.539.34.5
Chris Thompson49.89-0.730.311.239.310.5
Ted Ginn40.11.6137.5039.11
Alfred Morris29.332.1-9.46.8-0.238.9-9.6
Mohamed Sanu400.4-0.838.4238.81.2
Kenyan Drake32.216.60.122-6.538.6-6.4
Kareem Hunt36.330.4-1.68.1-0.638.5-2.2
Jordy Nelson55.40038.317.138.317.1
Kerryon Johnson43.919.6818.2-1.937.86.1
Trey Burton40.83.8-3.5346.637.83.1
Austin Ekeler60.117.11.720.520.837.622.5
Larry Fitzgerald29.10037.5-8.437.5-8.4
Jalen Richard35.73.6-1.133.8-0.637.4-1.7
Tyler Lockett60.40.9-0.436.123.83723.4
Sony Michel28.230.5-4.96.4-3.836.9-8.7
Keelan Cole45.50036.78.836.78.8
Kyle Rudolph48.80036.612.236.612.2
Emmanuel Sanders60.30.88.735.715.136.523.8
Tarik Cohen50.812.71.223.713.236.414.4
Rob Gronkowski46.30036.31036.310
Ryan Grant42.80035.8735.87
David Njoku26.10035.7-9.635.7-9.6
Jamaal Williams2423-6.812.6-4.835.6-11.6
Sammy Watkins42.74.20.931.46.235.67.1
Peyton Barber18.127.3-12.57.8-4.535.1-17
Calvin Ridley78.70.70.634.143.334.843.9
Kelvin Benjamin22.20034.8-12.634.8-12.6
Benjamin Watson28.70034.5-5.834.5-5.8
Devin Funchess38.50034.5434.54
Isaiah Crowell48.524.516.69.9-2.534.414.1
Jordan Wilkins23.121.3-7.712.9-3.434.2-11.1
DeSean Jackson77.40034.243.234.243.2
Dalvin Cook29.518.2-8.415.93.834.1-4.6
Pierre Garcon25.10034-8.934-8.9
Donte Moncrief41.70033.7833.78
Chris Carson33.722.80.910.7-0.733.50.2
Jay Ajayi3926.37.26.7-1.2336
Derrick Henry20.928.3-124.7-0.533-12.5
Laquon Treadwell30.10032.9-2.832.9-2.8
Brandon Marshall28.50032.8-4.332.8-4.3
Kenny Stills52.40032.819.632.819.6
Tyreek Hill63.91-0.131.831.232.831.1
Cole Beasley34.50032.61.932.61.9
Adam Humphries23.50.7-0.331.6-8.532.3-8.8
Ty Montgomery31.68.4-1.223.70.732.1-0.5
Chester Rogers29.40032-2.632-2.6
Jordan Reed36.80031.15.731.15.7
Corey Clement32.614.82.415.9-0.530.71.9
Christian Kirk31.60.60.129.9130.51.1
Tyler Eifert38.90030.48.530.48.5
Albert Wilson48.42.9-1.227.212.930.111.7
LeSean McCoy20.610.1-1.619.7-7.629.8-9.2
Taywan Taylor33.90029.64.329.64.3
Mike Williams50.40029.620.829.620.8
Rashard Higgins30.80029.41.429.41.4
Austin Seferian-Jenkins260028.8-2.828.8-2.8
Ricky Seals-Jones28.30028.6-0.328.6-0.3
Duke Johnson21.46-222.5-5.128.5-7.1
Wendell Smallwood30.512.85.515.6-3.428.42.1
Royce Freeman28.725.31.93-1.528.30.4
Austin Hooper30.50028.12.428.12.4
Nick Boyle19.40028-8.628-8.6
Geoff Swaim27.40027.9-0.527.9-0.5
Martavis Bryant20.50.6-0.227.2-7.127.8-7.3
Tyrell Williams301.10.326.52.127.62.4
Chris Ivory28.118.5-4.48.35.726.81.3
John Ross26.60.1-0.426.20.726.30.3
Ryan Switzer23.93.6-2.2220.525.6-1.7
Jakeem Grant38.70.8-0.324.613.625.413.3
Will Dissly35.60025.410.225.410.2
Zay Jones24.40025.1-0.725.1-0.7
Jack Doyle170025-825-8
Phillip Lindsay32.317.12.77.94.6257.3
Keke Coutee21.70.9-1.124-2.124.9-3.2
Mike Davis31.316.16.38.70.224.86.5
Frank Gore26.417.8-3.975.524.81.6
Charles Clay16.70024.5-7.824.5-7.8
Antonio Gates21.80024.2-2.424.2-2.4
Danny Amendola25.10024.20.924.20.9
Torrey Smith19.70024-4.324-4.3
Chris Hogan30.900246.9246.9
Trent Taylor15.40023.8-8.423.8-8.4
O.J. Howard39.20023.815.423.815.4
Robby Anderson23.9-0.9024.60.223.70.2
Rashaad Penny16.714.5-5.39.2-1.723.7-7
Mark Andrews27.90023.74.223.74.2
Ito Smith26.711.71.811.91.323.63.1
Corey Grant18.95.4-2.217.9-2.223.3-4.4
Jamison Crowder26.42.41.120.82.123.23.2
Terrelle Pryor23.800230.8230.8
Cordarrelle Patterson25.92.70.220.12.922.83.1
Allen Hurns15.10022.2-7.122.2-7.1
Vance McDonald380021.916.121.916.1
Alfred Blue1916.51.15.3-3.921.8-2.8
Zach Pascal21.70021.8-0.121.8-0.1
Andre Holmes140021.5-7.521.5-7.5
Maxx Williams24.60.7020.43.521.13.5
Courtland Sutton14.10020.9-6.820.9-6.8
LeGarrette Blount13.916.8-7.34.10.320.9-7
Jarius Wright24.20020.83.420.83.4
Josh Doctson9.80020.6-10.820.6-10.8
Marcus Murphy9.88.4-1.412.2-9.420.6-10.8
Latavius Murray188.9-2.511.7-0.120.6-2.6
Paul Richardson28.10020.57.620.57.6
Chad Williams110020.3-9.320.3-9.3
Bruce Ellington23.20020.32.920.32.9
Michael Gallup12.60020.2-7.620.2-7.6
Cameron Brate24.30019.84.519.84.5
Rex Burkhead14.711.5-2.98-1.919.5-4.8
Evan Engram26.40019.56.919.56.9
Jermaine Kearse11.70019.4-7.719.4-7.7
Devontae Booker14.65.7-2.613.3-1.819-4.4
Chase Edmonds16.95.8-1.813-0.118.8-1.9
Jesse James38.80018.82018.820
Kyle Juszczyk26.20018.47.818.47.8
Deonte Thompson17.30018.2-0.918.2-0.9
Nick Vannett15.70018.1-2.418.1-2.4
Rhett Ellison23.90018.15.818.15.8
Anthony Miller200017.92.117.92.1
James Washington15.90017.8-1.917.8-1.9
Jake Butt16.50017.7-1.217.7-1.2
Dallas Goedert250017.47.617.47.6
Devonta Freeman88.8-5.28.2-3.817-9
Josh Perkins11.70016.1-4.416.1-4.4
Tajae Sharpe17.40.70.914.90.915.61.8
Doug Martin12.511.6-1.83.9-1.215.5-3
Jacquizz Rodgers11.64.4-3.111.1-0.815.5-3.9
Virgil Green17.10015.41.715.41.7
Marquise Goodwin16.61.4-1.2142.415.41.2
Jaron Brown18.80015.43.415.43.4
C.J. Uzomah20.40015.25.215.25.2
Leonard Fournette139.7-2.65.10.814.8-1.8
Malcolm Brown13.19.9-0.64.8-114.7-1.6
Kendrick Bourne23.50014.78.814.78.8
Jeff Heuerman8.20014.5-6.314.5-6.3
Ian Thomas10.40014.5-4.114.5-4.1
Wayne Gallman12.94.8-1.69.60.114.4-1.5
Alshon Jeffery24.50014.110.414.110.4
Tavon Austin29.22.81.310.714.413.515.7
Darren Sproles7.22.9-1.910.4-4.213.3-6.1
Doug Baldwin9.10013.1-413.1-4
Jordan Akins14.40012.91.512.91.5
Jason Croom18.40012.85.612.85.6
Robert Foster2.10012.7-10.612.7-10.6
Ryan Griffin11.50012.7-1.212.7-1.2
C.J. Ham12.90.40.1120.412.40.5
C.J. Anderson16.96.80.75.63.812.44.5
Aaron Jones20.99.67.12.71.512.38.6
Dante Pettis18.60012.26.412.26.4
Zach Line100012.1-2.112.1-2.1
Delanie Walker9.20011.8-2.611.8-2.6
Mike Gesicki10.10011.8-1.711.8-1.7
Jordan Leggett10.30011.7-1.411.7-1.4
Seth Roberts18.60011.76.911.76.9
Chris Conley21.50011.79.811.79.8
Keith Smith4.43-38.1-3.711.1-6.7
Jordan Thomas110011.1-0.111.1-0.1
Kamar Aiken11.30010.40.910.40.9
James O'Shaughnessy7.50010.2-2.710.2-2.7
James Develin6.2009.9-3.79.9-3.7
Travis Benjamin4.20.71.29.2-6.99.9-5.7
D.J. Chark3.9009.8-5.99.8-5.9
Chris Herndon9.7009.709.70
Tyler Higbee12.8009.63.29.63.2
Luke Willson6.9009.4-2.59.4-2.5
Tyler Kroft7.6009.3-1.79.3-1.7
Cameron Meredith14.30095.395.3
Jonnu Smith4.1008.9-4.88.9-4.8
Mike Gillislee6.27.3-31.40.58.7-2.5
Luke Stocker11.3008.62.78.62.7
Josh Gordon13.9008.65.38.65.3
T.J. Jones3008.4-5.48.4-5.4
Rishard Matthews4.1008.4-4.38.4-4.3
Mark Walton5.72.6-1.75.8-18.4-2.7
Chris Moore7.81-0.57.308.3-0.5
Josh Hill16008.27.88.27.8
Jordan Matthews16.7008.28.58.28.5
Spencer Ware10.32.615.41.382.3
Garrett Celek11.9007.947.94
D.J. Moore14.41.4-0.46.56.97.96.5
Marlon Mack4.65.1-1.72.8-1.67.9-3.3
Kenneth Dixon10.47.82.6007.82.6
Tre'Quan Smith2.8007.7-4.97.7-4.9
Vyncint Smith3.8007.5-3.77.5-3.7
Eric Tomlinson7.5007.507.50
Cody Latimer8.6007.51.17.51.1
Austin Carr7.5007.40.17.40.1
Darren Fells17.6007.410.27.410.2
Justin Hunter1.6007.3-5.77.3-5.7
Rico Gathers0007.2-7.27.2-7.2
Lance Kendricks5.2007.2-27.2-2
Ronald Jones3.84.7-1.82.4-1.57.1-3.3
Tim Patrick3.6007-3.47-3.4
Michael Roberts001.66.96.91.6
David Morgan7.1006.70.46.70.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling6.1006.6-0.56.6-0.5
Russell Shepard1.9006.5-4.66.5-4.6
Derek Carrier5.5006.5-16.5-1
Vernon Davis12.6006.56.16.56.1
Rod Smith3.73.6-0.92.8-1.86.4-2.7
Gerald Everett6.3006.20.16.20.1
Josh Malone2.2006.1-3.96.1-3.9
Jeremy Kerley2.7006-3.36-3.3
Lee Smith5.3006-0.76-0.7
Nick Chubb26.65.920.7005.920.7
Niles Paul6.3005.90.45.90.4
Logan Paulsen12.8005.67.25.67.2
Demetrius Harris8.3005.52.85.52.8
Marcus Johnson4.21-1.24.405.4-1.2
Josh Bellamy11.8005.46.45.46.4
Demarcus Robinson7.3005.325.32
Aldrick Robinson19.2005.313.95.313.9
Mike Wallace0005.2-5.25.2-5.2
Trenton Cannon3.12.9-1.42.2-0.65.1-2
A.J. Derby11.5005.16.45.16.4
Dion Sims2.9005-2.15-2.1
Marvin Hall6.9004.924.92
Hakeem Valles3.1004.7-1.64.7-1.6
De'Anthony Thomas7.1004.72.44.72.4
Darius Jennings3.3004.6-1.34.6-1.3
Neal Sterling5.7004.61.14.61.1
Jacob Hollister6.5004.61.94.61.9
Terrance Williams3.8004.5-0.74.5-0.7
David Moore5.9004.51.44.51.4
Alex Erickson2.60.50.33.9-2.14.4-1.8
Damien Williams4.80.5-0.53.90.94.40.4
DeVante Parker6004.41.64.41.6
Levine Toilolo4.9004.20.74.20.7
J.J. Nelson1.4004.1-2.74.1-2.7
Shaun Wilson4.40.90.63-0.13.90.5
Alex Armah6.63.92.7003.92.7
Logan Thomas5.1003.91.23.91.2
C.J. Prosise5.2003.61.63.61.6
Sammie Coates2.2003.5-1.33.5-1.3
Mike Boone3.20.80.32.6-0.53.4-0.2
Freddie Martino0003.4-3.43.4-3.4
Dwayne Harris30.2-0.23.103.3-0.2
Jonathan Williams1.11.9-1.91.4-0.33.3-2.2
Stevan Ridley3.51.90.11.40.13.30.2
Erik Swoope4003.30.73.30.7
Tyler Conklin3.3003.20.13.20.1
Jeremy Hill4.11.90.61.30.33.20.9
Derrick Coleman3.80.4-0.32.80.93.20.6
Alan Cross0003.1-3.13.1-3.1
Orson Charles0003.1-3.13.1-3.1
Anthony Sherman13.2003.110.13.110.1
Blake Jarwin0002.9-2.92.9-2.9
Shelton Gibson0002.9-2.92.9-2.9
Jermaine Gresham1.9002.9-12.9-1
Mo Alie-Cox2.7002.8-0.12.8-0.1
Jonathan Stewart1.72.8-1.1002.8-1.1
Greg Olsen5.3002.82.52.82.5
Dwayne Allen0.6002.7-2.12.7-2.1
Tommy Bohanon1.5002.7-1.22.7-1.2
Josh Adams32.70.3002.70.3
Roc Thomas0.40.5-0.11.9-1.92.4-2
Benny Cunningham1.90.5-0.51.902.4-0.5
Patrick DiMarco001.32.12.11.3
Josh Reynolds0002-22-2
Justin Hardy1.4002-0.62-0.6
Brandon Wilds0.92-1.1002-1.1
Tre Madden1.90.5-0.31.40.31.90
Mike Burton1.6001.8-0.21.8-0.2
Andy Janovich2.30.3-0.11.50.61.80.5
Raheem Mostert1.80.4-0.41.40.41.80
De'Lance Turner2.40.401.40.61.80.6
Matt LaCosse0001.7-1.71.7-1.7
Stacy Coley0001.7-1.71.7-1.7
Eric Saubert0001.6-1.61.6-1.6
Riley McCarron0001.6-1.61.6-1.6
Xavier Grimble0001.6-1.61.6-1.6
Khari Lee1.5001.6-0.11.6-0.1
Rob Kelley0.81.6-0.8001.6-0.8
Jeremy McNichols0.41.6-1.2001.6-1.2
Marcus Kemp1.7001.60.11.60.1
Tyler Ervin2.2001.60.61.60.6
Michael Roberts8.5001.66.91.66.9
Roosevelt Nix001.31.61.61.3
Durham Smythe0001.5-1.51.5-1.5
Ryan Hewitt0001.5-1.51.5-1.5
Scott Simonson1.7001.50.21.50.2
Jehu Chesson0001.4-1.41.4-1.4
Marcedes Lewis0001.4-1.41.4-1.4
Kenjon Barner1.11.4-0.3001.4-0.3
Ray-Ray McCloud1.6001.40.21.40.2
Antony Auclair1.8001.40.41.40.4
DeAndre Carter2001.40.61.40.6
Tim White2.4001.411.41
Roosevelt Nix2.9001.31.61.31.6
Patrick DiMarco3.4001.32.11.32.1
Javon Wims0001.2-1.21.2-1.2
Taiwan Jones0001.1-1.11.1-1.1
Christine Michael0.91-0.1001-0.1
Tim White001.4111.4
Dwayne Washington0.20.9-0.7000.9-0.7
Kapri Bibbs0.30.7-0.4000.7-0.4
Andre Roberts0.20.6-0.4000.6-0.4
Tyler Ervin001.60.60.61.6
DeAndre Carter001.40.60.61.4
Kalen Ballage0.30.5-0.2000.5-0.2
Detrez Newsome00.5-0.5000.5-0.5
Antony Auclair001.40.40.41.4
Derek Watt0.10.3-0.2000.3-0.2
Scott Simonson001.50.20.21.5
Ray-Ray McCloud001.40.20.21.4
Marcus Kemp001.60.10.11.6
J.J. Jones0000000
J.J. Jones000000
J.J. Jones000000
Christine Michael1-0.100-0.10
Khari Lee001.6-0.1-0.11.6
Christine Michael001-0.1-0.11
Kalen Ballage0.5-0.200-0.20
Derek Watt0.3-0.200-0.20
Kalen Ballage000.5-0.2-0.20.5
Derek Watt000.3-0.2-0.20.3
Kenjon Barner1.4-0.300-0.30
Kenjon Barner001.4-0.3-0.31.4
Kapri Bibbs0.7-0.400-0.40
Andre Roberts0.6-0.400-0.40
Jacoby Brissett0.4-0.400-0.40
Kapri Bibbs000.7-0.4-0.40.7
Andre Roberts000.6-0.4-0.40.6
Matt Schaub000.4-0.4-0.40.4
Detrez Newsome0.5-0.500-0.50
Detrez Newsome000.5-0.5-0.50.5
Dwayne Washington0.9-0.700-0.70
Dwayne Washington000.9-0.7-0.70.9
Geno Smith000.6-0.7-0.70.6
Rob Kelley1.6-0.800-0.80
Rob Kelley001.6-0.8-0.81.6
Chase Daniel000.8-1-10.8
Taiwan Jones001.1-1.1-1.11.1
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.200-1.20
Jeremy McNichols001.6-1.2-1.21.6
Javon Wims001.2-1.2-1.21.2
Jehu Chesson001.4-1.4-1.41.4
Marcedes Lewis001.4-1.4-1.41.4
Durham Smythe001.5-1.5-1.51.5
Ryan Hewitt001.5-1.5-1.51.5
Eric Saubert001.6-1.6-1.61.6
Riley McCarron001.6-1.6-1.61.6
Xavier Grimble001.6-1.6-1.61.6
Matt LaCosse001.7-1.7-1.71.7
Stacy Coley001.7-1.7-1.71.7
Brian Hoyer001.4-1.7-1.71.4

Observations

  • Alvin Kamara has more total expected points than any NFL player in 2018, including QBs. Kamara is ranked fourth in rushing EP and ninth in receiving EP. In other words, he gives owners the workload of a top-five running back and a top-10 wide receiver. And that’s not all — he’s destroying his expected production too: Since 2000, only Wes Welker in 2011 (133.5) and Peyton Manning in 2013 (136.8) scored more PPR points through four weeks. For whatever it’s worth (which probably isn’t much) he’s on pace to score 523.6 PPR points. Can’t Mark Ingram just stay away a little bit longer?
  • Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both in the top three in receiving expected points. Surprisingly, both are below average in terms of efficiency. The expected points numbers here may be a result of Pittsburgh playing in a lot of negative game scripts. But they may also just be the result of increasing target concentration in Le’Veon Bell’s absence. I’d expect both to remain near the top of this leaderboard.
  • Saquon Barkley is quietly entering the elite RB ranks, at least in terms of his workload. Although he’s been a slightly inefficient receiver, he’s the second-ranked RB in terms of total EP, ahead of Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson.
  • Speaking of the aforementioned Johnson, you have to scroll all the way to 27th to find his name. Despite the Cardinals’ offensive struggles, Johnson has basically met expectations, registering only 0.5 fantasy points below expectation. His lack of targets is concerning, and the depth of those targets he does see is discouraging. In 2016, Johnson easily led all RBs with 558 total air yards on a 4.6 average depth of target (aDOT). Through four games in 2018, he has only 31 total air yards on 19 targets, for an aDOT of 1.6.
  • The Browns’ roster boasts the league leader in rushing expected points and rushing fantasy points over expectation. Unfortunately for the Browns, they aren’t the same person. Carlos Hyde is 2018’s leader in rushing EP, but ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing FPOE. Maybe we’ll soon see him cede carries to 2018’s leader in rushing FPOE, Nick Chubb.

hyde_chubb

  • Apart from one game, Hyde has been disappointing. But he isn’t the worst rusher on the year. That distinction belongs to Peyton Barber.2 After suffering through the league’s worst rushing attack for three games, the Tampa Bay coaching staff finally decided to give Ronald Jones a few looks. Jones didn’t do much better, scoring only 3.3 PPR points on 7.7 total expected points.
  • Barber is the least efficient player in the league, and interestingly his teammate, DeSean Jackson, is nearly the most efficient player in the league. But not quite. On practically identical workloads, Calvin Ridley has put up 0.7 more fantasy points over expectation than Jackson. He’s scored six touchdowns in the last three games — further proving that the problem with Julio Jones isn’t Matt Ryan.
  • The problem with Julio Jones is Steve Sarkisian. Only three WRs have more targets than Jones. Nobody has more air yards or more receiving yards. Yet Jones ranks just seventh in receiving expected points. The main reason for any discrepancy between targets and expected points is a difference in usage around the goal line. Jones is the most athletic WR in the NFL playing for one of the highest scoring offenses in 2018, yet his targets are less valuable than Jarvis Landry’s, Cooper Kupp’s, or Taylor Gabriel’s.

jonesep

  • Come to think of it, Steve Sarkisian is also the problem with Tevin Coleman. Coleman, like Jones, is one of the most athletic players in the league. Like Jones, he plays for a high-scoring offense. Yet he barely makes it into the top 50 in total expected points. And this is without Devonta Freeman in the picture. If you made Coleman the centerpiece of your Zero-RB draft, you’re probably pleased with the production you’re getting from a fifth-round pick. But you’ve got to also be a little frustrated at the potential that’s being wasted. Under Sarkisian, Coleman actually sees fewer targets when Freeman is out.

coleman splits

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)
  2. Barber is in fact the least efficient non-QB, in terms of total FPOE, despite playing his first three games in the league’s most prolific passing offense.  (back)

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