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Week 9 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

Week 9 Waiver Wire Advice

I’ll present players by positional tiers, from most desirable to acquire (1) to least (3). Availability in ESPN leagues is shown in parentheses. This week I enlisted the help of a half-dozen fellow RotoViz scribes to help rank the players.

Quarterbacks – Tier 1 – Worth a Bid

Check out Giana Pacinelli’s weekly Streaming QB column for more advice. 

With an eye towards making the playoffs, here are some favorable-schedule quarterback targets.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (94%) – Assuming he gets the start next week, he’s got a great streaming matchup. And if he holds the job, Tampa Bay has a great fantasy schedule from here until the fantasy playoffs begin. One of the week’s top adds if you need help at the position.

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Quarterbacks – Tier 2 – Maybe a Small Bid

Baker Mayfield (60%) – Mayfield also has a great upcoming schedule. A coaching change may keep bids low.

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Dak Prescott (71%) – It hasn’t been a great, or even good, season so far, but perhaps the addition of Amari Cooper and this tasty schedule will help.

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Tight Ends – Tier 1 – Modest Bid

Check out Neil Dutton’s Streaming TE Column for more advice.

Jack Doyle (68%) – In three games this year, he’s gone for 10, 5, and 7 targets. In those same games, Eric Ebron has gone for 5, 4, and 3. There’s no guarantee of course, but it looks a bit like Andrew Luck prefers Doyle when both are available. Given the wasteland at the TE position, it’s worth finding out more.

Tight Ends – Tier 2 – Small Bids

Ed Dickson (99%) – The TD was nice, although he had only two targets. But other than Tyler Lockett, none of Seattle’s pass catchers are impressing.1

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If Dickson takes targets from Nick Vannett and Brandon Marshall, he could come into useful market share. Limited total volume in Seattle’s offense limits the upside, but Dickson at least offers something many other waiver tight ends don’t: potential upside.

Tight Ends – Tier 3 – First Come / First Serve

Chris Herndon (95%) – He has TDs in three straight games, despite only once getting more than two targets. Slightly more appealing if Robby Anderson remains out or limited.

Mark Andrews (98%) & Hayden Hurst (99%) 

Both are getting playing time, but since Hurst entered the lineup in Week 5, it’s Andrews that has been most productive.

Player Targets Receptions Yards TDs YPT
Hayden Hurst 8 3 36 1 3.3
Mark Andrews 13 8 75 1 6.1

Hurst’s arrival hasn’t negatively impacted Andrews playing time, either. If you’re this desperate, take a shot on Andrews.

Running Backs – Tier 1 – Make a Biggish Bid for One

Aaron Jones (52%) – Jones is stuck in a frustrating timeshare, but at least he’s the better-performing partner. Since Week 3:

PLAYER SEAS ruEP reEP ruFPOEPA reFPOEPA
Aaron Jones 2018 24.6 10 0.34 0.01
Jamaal Williams 2018 18.9 15.5 -0.01 -0.55

Green Bay has the third-best fantasy RB schedule from Weeks 9 through 13. Green Bay’s offense is the best of the three RBs in this tier, so Jones upside if Williams loses work is considerable.

Jalen Richard (50%) – Similar to Jones, Richard is in a timeshare. In the first game without Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin earned 13 carries and put up a respectable 72 yards. But Richard earned eight targets in the passing game to only two for Martin. Richard only has one game this season with fewer than five targets, making him a safe-floor PPR back.

Peyton Barber (44%) – With Ronald Jones expected to miss a few weeks, Barber should dominate Tampa Bay’s backfield opportunity. Barber already has as many rushing expected points this season as Alex Collins, Phillip Lindsay, and Chris Carson. Barber doesn’t get much work as a receiver, so it’s a rushing volume and hope for a TD play.

Running Backs – Tier 2 – Smallish Bids for Potential Late Season Help

Nyhiem Hines (61%) – Yes, it’s Marlon Mack’s backfield now, but Hines has been productive enough that he should be heavily involved if Mack misses time again. It’s also possible that injuries in the Colts receiving corps get Hines on the field some more. This is mostly something to consider if you have bench space or limited free agency budget. The Colts have a Week 9 bye, so a low bid might let you stash Hines. It could pay off later in the season, perhaps in Weeks 14 – 16, when the Colts have a top-10 fantasy RB schedule.

Wendell Smallwood (61%) – Smallwood has earned 22 opportunities compared to Corey Clement’s 15 over the past two games. He also compares quite well to one of our favorite players, Austin Ekeler. 

PLAYER SEAS ruEP.Q1 reEP.Q1 ruFPOEPA.Q1 reFPOEPA.Q1 ruEP.Q1.N1
Wendell Smallwood 2018 32.9 31.4 -0.02 0.45 64.3
Austin Ekeler 2018 28.8 34.3 0.03 1.08 63.1

The difference is that Smallwood isn’t blocked by Melvin Gordon. Philadelphia’s backfield is likely to remain a committee, but Smallwood is the best positioned of the three backs at the moment.

Javorius Allen (52%) – Even in a bad game he scored a TD. He’s averaging 4.75 targets per game, which gives him a safe floor if boring ceiling.

Running Backs – Tier 3 – Deep League Small Bids

Trenton Cannon (95%) – The replacement for Bilal Powell could get decent volume, but then again it’s the Jets offense.

Josh Adams (99%) – Showed well in Week 8, but both Smallwood and Clement are more established.

Devontae Booker (88%) – Should be rostered and in lineup consideration whenever Royce Freeman or Phillip Lindsay are out or limited.

Wide Receivers – Tier 1 – Big Bid

Keke Coutee (81%) – Coutee has shown ability already this year, and with Will Fuller’s six targets per game up for grabs, Coutee has role security. Houston is also top-six in plays per game. The clearest waiver situation of the week, my top add. Don’t expect him to be Fuller though.

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Coutee probably won’t create the huge plays Fuller is famous for, but he should soak up a bunch of targets in a receiving corps that’s barren outside of DeAndre Hopkins.

Wide Receivers – Tier 2 – Modest Bids for Breakout Potential

All four are enticing young WRs who are on the verge of standalone value. Additional opportunity via an injury (or trade?) ahead of them makes them all players you’ll want on your roster. Because there are a few choices, don’t bid too much.

D.J. Moore (90%) – Carolina has the fourth-best streaming schedule Weeks 9 through 13.

Christian Kirk (80%) – Kirk now has six games with over five targets, and has had six or more in three straight games. Arizona’s offense isn’t great, but Kirk is one of it’s better options.

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Chris Godwin (51%) – Godwin and DeSean Jackson both carry 15 percent target shares, but Godwin is earning about a point per game more in expected points. The return of Ryan Fitzpatrick should help too.

Courtland Sutton (88%) – Denver has a top-10 fantasy WR schedule Weeks 9 through 13. Sutton has shown well as a rookie, but bidding on Sutton is mostly hoping that one of Denver’s other WRs gets traded, thus vaulting Sutton into a top-25 target share.

Wide Receivers – Tier 3 – Deep Leagues or Small Bids

Marquise Goodwin (39%) – If he stays healthy he’s worth rostering, especially if Pierre Garcon gets traded. He’s gone over 10 points three times — and under five points three times — this season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (97%) – Check out this week’s Dumpster Dives.

David Moore (98%) – I mean, if Doug Baldwin is really Done Baldwin, then sure, I like Moore. As a low-target option in a low volume offense.

Danny Amendola (53%) – Six or more targets in three straight games. Desperation PPR flex.

Willie Snead (88%) – Seven or more targets in five straight games, including 10 or more in two of the past three games. But hasn’t topped 60 yards in a game. A slightly less desperate PPR flex.

DeVante Parker (88%) – Yipee, a good game! Parker’s nine targets last week were his most since Christmas Eve, 2017, and his yardage was a career high. Put me in the camp that thinks Parker’s next game will be more like his career average of three catches for 45 yards. That’s not to say you shouldn’t grab Parker on the cheap. With Albert Wilson done for the year, Parker once again has a chance to be useful. Just make your bid more about the targets available in Miami’s current offense, and less about the one-game blowup.

  1. David Moore is on a very small sample.  (back)

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