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Rookie WRs Give Hope to Dynasty Owners: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 11

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 11. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 8 totEPWk 8 totFPOE
Todd Gurley231.561.921.05.69.52.9
Saquon Barkley214.83621.53.623.711.5
Alvin Kamara212.445.121.24.5170.8
James Conner199.132.619.93.314.7-3.8
Ezekiel Elliott19815.419.81.523.59.6
Adam Thielen191.838.519.23.917.8-4.2
Christian McCaffrey183.637.218.43.718.9-1.9
Antonio Brown180.428.318.02.820.22.5
Julio Jones180.427.418.02.713.510.3
James White18025.218.02.500
Kareem Hunt176.853.416.14.9164.1
Davante Adams176.744.617.74.518.77.9
Odell Beckham Jr.176.217.917.61.899.5
Stefon Diggs173.52.419.30.331.20.4
David Johnson172.11.817.20.217-0.6
Jarvis Landry171.4-42.417.1-4.200
Travis Kelce168.631.815.32.926.42.3
DeAndre Hopkins165.844.516.64.511.35.3
Tyreek Hill164.884.915.07.721.621.9
Zach Ertz16423.416.42.32.60.9
Michael Thomas159.374.915.97.56.412.8
Melvin Gordon15967.917.77.516.55.1
Robert Woods158.625.914.42.420.3-3.1
Juju Smith-Schuster151.118.815.11.914.83.6
Keenan Allen150.314.815.01.521.52.5
Mike Evans14536.714.53.710.613.4
Brandin Cooks141.242.314.14.218.10.6
T.J. Yeldon137.812.713.81.36.5-1.3
Emmanuel Sanders132.732.713.33.38.91.3
Golden Tate131.6-1.414.6-0.212.3-3.3
Corey Davis131.5-13.613.2-1.47.2-2.3
Tyler Boyd129.232.712.93.315.6-4.5
Joe Mixon128.67.516.10.913.60.6
A.J. Green12821.716.02.700
Adrian Peterson126.718.412.71.89.87.3
Kenny Golladay126.22312.62.321.93.4
Michael Crabtree125.4-2412.5-2.44.8-3.1
Dion Lewis122.7-4.912.3-0.57.4-3.2
Kenyan Drake121.92.112.20.200
Kerryon Johnson119.42211.92.210.67.1
Willie Snead118.9-11.711.9-1.211.9-1.8
Lamar Miller118-10.213.1-1.118.5-4.7
Eric Ebron116.828.611.72.900
Jordan Howard116.6-11.311.7-1.19.3-1.8
Larry Fitzgerald116.3-7.311.6-0.78.47.9
Tevin Coleman116.320.811.62.17.83.7
John Brown116.25.811.60.62.11.2
Nelson Agholor115.4-1411.5-1.43.2-3.2
George Kittle115.230.311.53.000
Phillip Lindsay113.632.111.43.214.811.8
Jared Cook109.71711.01.78.14
LeSean McCoy109.7-16.612.2-1.800
Carlos Hyde109.5-26.412.2-2.93.50.9
Ty Hilton108.623.913.63.015.421.1
Sterling Shepard108.113.910.81.43.40.8
Tarik Cohen107.535.410.83.59-1
Devin Funchess107.43.210.70.312.8-6.9
Taylor Gabriel107.21.910.70.216.1-2.2
Dede Westbrook106.92.110.70.25.7-1.8
Nyheim Hines106.4-2.310.6-0.29-4.6
Austin Hooper105.27.310.50.713-6.3
Marvin Jones104.910.911.71.200
Jordan Reed104.6-2.410.5-0.218.51.6
DeSean Jackson104.137.910.43.810.4-2.6
Alex Collins102.811.810.31.24.13.7
Peyton Barber102-13.210.2-1.314.54.5
Donte Moncrief99.219.90.12.9-0.8
Jalen Richard99.16.99.90.710.81.5
Chris Godwin9918.39.91.84.43.6
Cooper Kupp9936.112.44.500
Adam Humphries98.69.69.91.09.15.9
Zay Jones97.9-3.79.8-0.400
Amari Cooper97.7-3.910.9-0.49.4-2.8
Demaryius Thomas97.75.69.80.61.2-1.2
Sammy Watkins96.718.49.71.81.6-0.2
Julian Edelman963.416.00.600
Javorius Allen95.40.89.50.10.5-0.3
Jimmy Graham95.2-49.5-0.41.70.6
Danny Amendola95.13.59.50.400
Alshon Jeffery94.78.213.51.28.4-1.1
Antonio Callaway93.4-22.19.3-2.200
Cole Beasley93.19.39.30.912.1-2
Allen Robinson92.211.511.51.49.4-2.5
Kelvin Benjamin89.7-33.59.0-3.400
David Njoku89-4.29.9-0.500
Mike Davis88.88.89.91.05.31.7
Calvin Ridley88.748.28.94.88.2-1.5
Matt Breida88.729.88.93.000
Chris Carson87.94.111.00.511.23.1
Mohamed Sanu86.916.28.71.610.6-0.7
Kyle Rudolph86.7-2.58.7-0.38.6-5.3
Quincy Enunwa86.7-17.210.8-2.200
Marshawn Lynch85.8-6.814.3-1.100
Josh Gordon85.78.710.71.100
Tyler Lockett84.855.68.55.68.83.4
Isaiah Crowell84.3318.43.100
Sony Michel83.6-7.211.9-1.000
Marlon Mack83.310.113.91.712.81.1
Trey Burton83.223.18.32.31.20.7
Latavius Murray82.820.68.32.12.4-1.9
Jermaine Kearse82.7-35.69.2-4.000
O.J. Howard82.438.18.23.88.84
Jeff Heuerman82.2-17.59.1-1.97.1-1.1
Christian Kirk81.7238.22.36.210.5
Frank Gore81-5.28.1-0.500
Duke Johnson80.114.88.01.500
Aaron Jones8039.610.05.01611.3
Theo Riddick79.8-9.410.0-1.210.6-2.6
Mark Ingram79.612.213.32.018.63.7
Chester Rogers79.5-9.58.0-1.03.1-0.2
Alfred Morris78.9-298.8-3.200
Ricky Seals-Jones78.8-20.67.9-2.13.8-2.3
Josh Doctson78.3-13.58.7-1.510.7-4.5
Derrick Henry78.2-0.47.80.04.50.1
Courtland Sutton78.12.87.80.39.21.6
Alfred Blue77.8-17.17.8-1.73.80.8
Keelan Cole76.9-4.49.6-0.600
Anthony Miller7518.28.32.05.44.9
Austin Ekeler74.331.77.43.25.73.2
Will Fuller72.933.410.44.800
Pierre Garcon72-13.49.0-1.700
Nick Chubb7133.57.13.400
Vance McDonald70.522.27.82.59.91.8
Tyrell Williams70.341.17.04.19.4-5.2
Wendell Smallwood70.38.77.81.01-1.4
Chris Ivory69.8-7.87.8-0.900
Laquon Treadwell67.8-7.86.8-0.84.8-3.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling67.59.57.51.14.4-2.6
Benjamin Watson67.40.98.40.100
Keke Coutee67.2-7.913.4-1.614.8-2.1
D.J. Moore66.8326.73.213.315.4
Rob Gronkowski66.513.39.51.900
Jamaal Williams66.1-14.96.6-1.50.50
Doug Baldwin65.63.18.20.418.20
Ito Smith65.5107.31.16.1-1.9
Bilal Powell65.1-2.89.3-0.400
Corey Clement65-5.58.1-0.73.50
Maurice Harris64.9-7.89.3-1.16.3-4
Robby Anderson64.18.78.01.100
Ryan Grant63.90.28.00.04.8-1.3
Jordy Nelson63.814.57.11.600
Chris Thompson63.32.912.70.600
Doug Martin62.6-10.46.3-1.060.8
Kendrick Bourne6226.20.200
Leonard Fournette61.91.115.50.319.72.4
Giovani Bernard60.76.710.11.16.10.4
Randall Cobb60.1-2.212.0-0.400
Royce Freeman59.711.37.51.46.43.6
Tajae Sharpe59.32.25.90.211.82.9
Mike Williams58.632.45.93.23.93.7
Cordarrelle Patterson58.5-1.85.9-0.200
LeGarrette Blount58.2-135.8-1.33.4-3.3
Michael Gallup58.1-7.65.8-0.87.6-5.6
Chris Hogan57.510.85.81.100
Devontae Booker57.32.35.70.21.40
Phillip Dorsett57.34.37.20.500
Tre'Quan Smith56.926.27.13.322.88.9
Mark Andrews56.345.60.41.41.5
Paul Richardson56.22.98.00.400
Evan Engram55.95.88.00.82.95.7
Greg Olsen55.7198.02.771.9
Nick Vannett55.4-2.16.2-0.22.8-0.1
Albert Wilson55.435.37.95.000
Kenny Stills55.420.26.22.200
Chris Conley55.113.25.51.314.711.7
Antonio Gates55.1-36.1-0.314.64.4
David Moore5518.56.92.312.9-3.2
Seth Roberts54.49.16.01.010.3-2.5
Nick Boyle54.4-19.26.0-2.15.52.1
Dalvin Cook53.3-4.910.7-1.08.8-4.8
Allen Hurns53.3-3.25.9-0.400
Marquise Goodwin52.922.96.62.900
Geoff Swaim52.93.36.60.49-2.6
Jakeem Grant52.97.45.30.700
C.J. Uzomah51.97.95.20.87.8-0.7
Jarius Wright51.35.35.10.54.32.7
John Ross51.1-1.97.3-0.311.2-0.5
Jack Doyle50.70.210.10.06.91.4
Ty Montgomery50.6-2.27.2-0.300
Charles Clay50-14.16.3-1.800
Terrelle Pryor49.146.10.500
Chad Williams48.9-20.66.1-2.600
Taywan Taylor48.8-0.46.1-0.100
Geronimo Allison48.613.79.72.700
Zach Pascal48.3-12.46.9-1.81.70.4
Jesse James48.120.35.32.300
Rashaad Penny47.64.96.00.64.40.2
D.J. Chark47.6-16.25.3-1.88.1-4.6
Jacquizz Rodgers47.2-3.15.9-0.46.2-4.7
Kyle Juszczyk47.110.54.71.100
Jordan Wilkins46.55.55.20.62.16.9
Jonnu Smith45.7-1.15.1-0.112.2-1.8
Martavis Bryant45.42.56.50.400
Gerald Everett44.712.34.51.28.911
Tyler Higbee44.74.15.00.511.80.5
Trent Taylor44.7-4.75.6-0.600
Ryan Switzer44.4-1.34.4-0.14.51.3
Ryan Griffin44.2-17.96.3-2.600
Marcus Murphy44-12.47.3-2.100
Torrey Smith43.61.57.30.300
Cameron Brate43.57.44.80.84.4-0.8
Rashard Higgins42.918.26.12.600
DeVante Parker40.7-4.28.1-0.800
Chris Herndon40.522.25.12.800
James O'Shaughnessy39.7-9.65.0-1.23.2-1.8
Jay Ajayi39.449.91.000
Ted Ginn39.40.79.90.200
Curtis Samuel38.630.66.45.110.85.7
Mike Gesicki38.5-6.44.3-0.700
Andre Holmes38.5-7.93.9-0.800
Josh Reynolds37.711.96.32.015.34.7
Spencer Ware36.812.14.11.300
Kapri Bibbs36.48.35.21.24.7-2.1
Dallas Goedert36.318.54.52.31.4-1.4
Brandon Marshall35.9-5.36.0-0.900
Jamison Crowder35.10.88.80.200
Chase Edmonds35-7.23.5-0.72.4-0.7
James Washington34.7-135.0-1.94.8-2.7
Bruce Ellington34.5-0.18.60.014.1-2.9
Vernon Davis34.49.83.81.12.3-2.3
Virgil Green33.76.23.70.75.6-0.9
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.1-7.16.6-1.400
Jordan Matthews32.617.14.72.45.71
Rhett Ellison31.72.83.50.31.40.8
Jordan Thomas31.110.73.91.31.40.7
Malcolm Brown31.15.53.50.62.4-0.9
Demarcus Robinson30.7-4.23.4-0.53-0.6
Deonte Thompson30.7-4.34.4-0.600
Wayne Gallman30.6-5.83.8-0.73.91.6
Tyler Eifert30.48.57.62.100
Jason Croom30.123.80.300
Dontrelle Inman29.739.91.012.60.8
Equanimeous St. Brown29.5-3.34.9-0.65.7-3.1
Trenton Cannon28.7-2.15.7-0.400
Damion Ratley28.2-27.1-0.500
Brandon LaFell27.89.77.02.464.9
Josh Adams27.75.54.60.911.94.3
Aldrick Robinson27.319.63.42.54.46
Josh Bellamy27.2-4.63.9-0.75.1-2
James Develin27-9.73.0-1.100
Chris Moore26.72.73.00.32.40.8
Lance Kendricks26.60.73.00.13.6-0.4
Josh Hill26.47.63.81.16.4-1.8
Alex Erickson25.9-12.74.3-2.11.7-1.7
Matt LaCosse25.5-0.83.2-0.12.7-0.8
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Dante Pettis25.5-1.76.4-0.400
Ian Thomas25.3-5.65.1-1.100
Raheem Mostert25.215.44.22.600
Jordan Akins24.3-0.23.00.02.93.3
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
Michael Roberts23.88.64.81.700
Corey Grant23.8-4.14.8-0.800
Maxx Williams23.543.90.700
Luke Stocker23.32.23.30.34.2-0.6
Luke Willson23-4.52.9-0.61.7-1.7
Mo Alie-Cox22.76.53.81.10.9-0.9
Demetrius Harris22.35.43.70.93.1-1.8
Elijah McGuire21.9-3.511.0-1.800
Jaron Brown21.812.54.42.500
Austin Carr21.513.10.15.22.1
Tavon Austin21.416.13.62.700
Ronald Jones20.8-1.25.2-0.300
Jordan Leggett20.7-5.23.0-0.700
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Eric Tomlinson19.7-6.62.8-0.900
J.J. Nelson19.6-132.5-1.61.7-1.7
Rex Burkhead19.4-4.76.5-1.600
C.J. Ham19.3-4.52.8-0.600
Marvin Hall19.110.12.41.31.3-1
Zach Line19-6.52.7-0.92.6-2.7
Robert Foster18.9-3.33.8-0.700
Justin Hardy18.8-54.7-1.300
Logan Thomas18.5-0.33.7-0.100
Derek Carrier18.5-9.73.7-1.900
Rod Smith18.4-5.52.6-0.83.1-0.3
Travis Benjamin18.2-12.13.0-2.04.2-4.2
Josh Perkins18-6.36.0-2.100
Jake Butt17.9-1.46.0-0.500
Tim Patrick17.80.83.00.11.1-1.1
Bennie Fowler17.7-4.84.4-1.21.50.5
Mark Walton17.6-6.13.5-1.200
C.J. Anderson17.62.22.50.300
Michael Floyd16.9-7.63.4-1.53.9-1.1
Erik Swoope16.916.43.43.300
Gus Edwards16.693.31.87.79.8
T.J. Jones16.4-3.12.7-0.51.5-0.3
Breshad Perriman16.4-34.1-0.800
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Justin Hunter15.4-10.35.1-3.400
Stevan Ridley14.7-4.32.5-0.700
Cody Core14.6-4.93.7-1.21.6-1.6
Neal Sterling14.4-3.73.6-0.900
Seth DeValve14.30.14.80.000
Jermaine Gresham14.20.42.80.13.7-1.9
Blake Jarwin14.2-62.4-1.000
Andre Roberts13.7-83.4-2.000
Hayden Hurst13.62.12.70.400
Darren Sproles13.3-6.113.3-6.100
Scott Simonson13.3-8.23.3-2.100
Cody Latimer13.23.64.41.200
Logan Paulsen1372.61.43.20.7
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
Nick O'Leary12.87.94.32.600
David Grinnage12.8-0.74.3-0.200
Russell Shepard12.8-2.74.3-0.900
DeAndre Washington12.7-6.14.2-2.010.5-6.6
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Cameron Batson12.5-0.33.1-0.12-0.5
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.100
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.100
Dan Arnold12.22.33.10.63.51
Delanie Walker11.7-2.511.7-2.500
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.900
Jaylen Samuels11.52.33.80.800
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Rico Gathers11.4-4.82.3-1.000
Eric Saubert11.3-52.8-1.300
Alex Armah11.32.11.90.400
Levine Toilolo10.81.21.80.21.70.6
Darren Fells10.610.42.12.100
Ed Dickson10.414.92.63.72.56
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Lee Smith10.3-2.45.2-1.24.4-1.8
Shaun Wilson10.2-3.82.0-0.800
Anthony Sherman10.19.61.71.600
Dwayne Harris10.1-0.81.7-0.100
Keith Kirkwood9.92.95.01.57.1-0.8
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Rishard Matthews9.5-5.43.2-1.800
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.500
Darius Jennings9.31.21.90.200
De'Anthony Thomas9.23.33.11.100
A.J. Derby8.75.12.91.700
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Andy Janovich82.61.60.53.4-1.2
DaeSean Hamilton7.90.94.00.53.1-1.7
Kenneth Dixon7.92.57.92.500
Kevin White7.82.23.91.100
Antony Auclair7.802.60.000
Samaje Perine7.8-1.82.6-0.600
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Vyncint Smith7.5-3.73.8-1.900
Marcell Ateman7.41.67.41.67.41.6
Xavier Grimble7.41.31.90.31.4-0.1
Dalton Schultz7.4-1.13.7-0.600
Dwayne Washington7.4-2.82.5-0.91.7-2
Derrick Willies7.31.87.31.800
Jacob Hollister7.31.93.71.000
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.100
Jeremy Sprinkle7.2-7.22.4-2.43-3
Jamaal Charles6.9-3.53.5-1.800
Trey Quinn6.82.16.82.16.82.1
Blake Bell6.80.23.40.100
Tommy Bohanon6.8-2.31.7-0.600
Matt Lengel6.62.22.20.73.63.8
Elijhaa Penny6.6-0.82.2-0.33.6-1.2
Dion Sims6.3-3.43.2-1.700
Kalen Ballage6.3-0.21.30.000
Nick Williams6.2-2.52.1-0.800
Orson Charles6.2-2.81.6-0.700
Taquan Mizzell6.2-4.82.1-1.60.5-0.6
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Josh Malone6-3.83.0-1.900
Chad Beebe5.82.12.91.11.51.3
Alan Cross5.7-4.11.9-1.400
Richie James5.64.12.82.100
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Ben Braunecker5.4-11.8-0.31.5-0.1
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Roosevelt Nix5.31.31.80.400
Rashad Greene5.30.51.80.200
Damien Williams5.3-0.41.1-0.100
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
Justin Jackson5-0.42.5-0.200
Dwayne Allen50.71.70.200
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Charone Peake4.7-0.21.6-0.100
Brandon Powell4.6-34.6-3.000
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Durham Smythe4.6-4.61.5-1.500
Isaiah McKenzie4.51.14.51.100
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Cole Wick4.4-4.44.4-4.400
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Marcedes Lewis4.11.41.40.500
Ameer Abdullah3.921.30.71.30.7
C.J. Prosise3.912.00.500
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
Tre Madden3.8-1.81.0-0.500
Khadarel Hodge3.60.11.80.12.2-0.9
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
Dontrell Hilliard3.61.41.20.500
Derrick Coleman3.40.60.90.200
Freddie Martino3.3-3.33.3-3.300
De'Lance Turner3.30.81.70.400
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Auden Tate3.2-1.71.6-0.91.6-0.1
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
Robert Tonyan Jr.3.19.31.64.71.510.9
Chris Manhertz3.1-1.93.1-1.900
Marcus Kemp3.1-1.41.6-0.700
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Patrick DiMarco31.41.50.700
DeAndre Carter31.11.50.600
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
Brian Parker2.9-2.91.5-1.500
Trent Sherfield2.8-1.22.8-1.22.8-1.2
Jordan Franks2.82.91.41.51.40.1
Leonte Carroo2.81.62.81.600
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Corey Coleman2.71.31.40.71.20.7
T.J. Logan2.70.72.70.700
Taiwan Jones2.7-2.71.4-1.400
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.700
Byron Marshall2.4-1.92.4-1.92.4-1.9
MyCole Pruitt2.30.62.30.62.30.6
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
David Fluellen1.8-0.20.9-0.100
Russell Gage1.70.21.70.200
Stacy Coley1.7-1.71.7-1.700
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Darrius Heyward-Bey1.60.31.60.300
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Riley McCarron1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Justin Watson1.501.50.000
Jamize Olawale1.5-0.21.5-0.200
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Tim White1.411.41.000
Brice Butler1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Jehu Chesson1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Derek Watt1.3-10.7-0.500
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Cameron Artis-Payne0.5-0.40.5-0.40.5-0.4
Zach Zenner0.50.70.50.700
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Detrez Newsome0.5-0.50.5-0.500
Rod Streater0.5-1.60.5-1.600
J.J. Jones000.00.000

Observations

  • After a rare down game from Todd Gurley — especially when you consider his team scored 54 points — we have a new leader in per-game expected points. Saquon Barkley leads all players with 21.5 EP per game. What’s remarkable is that the Giants rank 22nd in points per game. But no player has a higher share of his team’s rushing attempts, and among running backs only James White has a higher percentage of his team’s targets. The passing game work gives Barkley the edge. White is the only RB averaging more receiving EP per game.Screen Shot 2018-11-22 at 12.24.24 AM
  • Barkley helped his case with 23.7 total EP on Sunday, but his workload was only the third most valuable of the week. Stefon Diggs led all players with 31.2 total expected points. He moves into second in receiving EP per game with last week’s performance. The only player above him: teammate Adam Thielen. Thielen and Diggs predictably also rank first and second in targets per game — each with more than 11.5.
  • We know that rookie-year efficiency is a positive sign for predicting future WR breakouts, and the 2018 rookie class is giving dynasty owners a lot of reason to be excited. Calvin Ridley ranks fourth in receiving fantasy points over expected. D.J. Moore, Tre’Quan Smith, and Christian Kirk join him as rookie WRs with more than 20 receiving FPOE on the season. Anthony Miller falls just short at 18 FPOE, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling falls just short of 10 receiving FPOE. Courtland Sutton is narrowly exceeding expectations with just under three receiving FPOE. Having a good rookie season is no guarantee, but WRs who exceed expectations in Year 1 average nearly 150 fantasy points in Year 2, while those who fail to do so average less than 100. Keep an eye on these rookies as the season continues.Does-Rookie-Year-Efficiency-Matter_
  • Moore and Kirk both scored more than 10 points over expectation in Week 11, but neither was the top scoring rookie WR of the week. That was Tre’Quan Smith, who saw 13 targets en route to a 22.8 total EP day. He ended with 31.7 PPR points, finishing the week as the overall WR3.

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)

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