It’s time for another season of bad bets based in good process, better known as Bold Predictions.
In this series, we’ll look at weekly match ups, using history as a contextual backdrop – as well as in-season trends – in order to unearth unexpected events that have a chance at coming true.
A recap of another successful week:
- We hit the Adam Thielen prediction out of the park. Not only did he fall short of 75 receiving yards, he couldn’t even hit 25.
- Kenny Golladay did not get the anticipated bump in volume, leaving him with just 8.4 fantasy points.
- After averaging five targets over his last four games, D.J. Moore saw just two in a game where the Panthers put up 42 points. Surprisingly, those two targets were not enough to break the franchise record for rookie WR fantasy points.
We’re on fire with a 6-20 record — a 23 percent hit rate above our goal of 15 to 20 percent.
David Johnson hits 30 Fantasy Points for First Time in Almost Two Years
The last time David Johnson put up at least 30 PPR points was a 33.6-point outing on Christmas Eve, 2016
Since then, he’s appeared in 10 games, averaging 14.7 points and surpassing the 20-point plateau just once.
On Sunday, I predict he rejoins the 30-point club against Kansas City. The Chiefs are last, or nearly last, in almost every RB category.
- They give up 27 fantasy points per game against opposing RBs, worst in the league.
- They’ve been burned for five receiving TDs and eight rushing TDs, last and fifth last, respectively.
- They’re second last in RB targets, receptions, and yards allowed.
That matchup is not enough to convince the GLSP App, however, as it has Johnson falling 11 point short in even the best-case scenario.
His usage was pretty much the same in Byron Leftwich’s first game as play caller as it was under Mike McCoy. However, they’ve now had a bye week to figure it out, and with his Cardinals coming in as an insane 16.5-point underdog, a Johnson projects to see a ton of opportunity in the passing game.
Marcus Mariota Outscores Tom Brady
Hear me out.
For a guy who brings such a low floor on such a consistent basis, we also know that Marcus Mariota is capable of hitting his high-ceiling potential now and then.
I’m forecasting a hot week for Mariota against a Patriots defense yielding the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs at 19.7 per game.
The Titans occupy the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up 15.5 points per game, fourth best in the league.
The GLSP App smells what I’m cooking, sort of. While Tom Brady’s range of outcomes is much more weighted to a solid showing, Mariota’s ceiling is not far off from the future Hall of Famer’s.
Between the Titans’ tough pass defense, and the potential return of RB Sony Michel, a quieter game for Brady is a strong possibility. Mariota could be playing catch up all night, a position that’s served him well for fantasy purposes.
Tyler Boyd Goes Career Against the Saints
All of Tyler Boyd’s top-five fantasy games have come this season. The best was 28.6 points against the Buccaneers, and he’s also hit 25 points on two other occasions.
Boyd is likely to see a significant bump in usage without A.J. Green and his 9.5 targets per game. His efficiency should similarly spike against a New Orleans defense giving up the most yards, most TDs, and most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Five different players have smoked the Saints for at least 25 points.
The GLSP doesn’t see a career effort from Boyd as much of a possibility, but it doesn’t rule out 30 points completely, either.
The model also doesn’t know that the team’s leading receiver is on the shelf.