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Tight Ends Don’t Matter, Unless They’re Named Zach Ertz – What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 10. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 10 totEPWk 10 totFPOE
Todd Gurley221.659.422.25.915.49.6
Alvin Kamara195.644.121.74.919.66.6
James Conner184.236.620.54.110.14.2
Adam Thielen17442.719.34.700
Saquon Barkley191.124.521.22.719.5-5.5
Michael Thomas152.862.217.06.914.612.4
Kareem Hunt160.949.216.14.910.90.7
Tyreek Hill14363.214.36.317.515.2
Melvin Gordon142.662.717.87.815.811.7
James White179.825.418.02.512.2-4.6
Christian McCaffrey164.83918.34.316.420.4
Davante Adams157.936.817.54.111.210.5
DeAndre Hopkins154.539.217.24.400
Antonio Brown160.225.817.82.98.712.9
Julio Jones166.917.118.51.922.11.6
Zach Ertz161.422.517.92.527.712.8
Odell Beckham Jr.166.98.718.51.018.94.4
Ezekiel Elliott174.55.819.40.628.97.8
Travis Kelce142.229.514.23.011.2-0.6
Robert Woods138.32913.82.99.94.7
Brandin Cooks123.141.713.74.620.56.4
Emmanuel Sanders123.831.413.83.500
Mike Evans134.123.614.92.611.2-3.1
David Johnson1552.517.20.327.49.9
Juju Smith-Schuster136.115.415.11.78.311
Tyler Boyd113.637.212.64.16.13.4
A.J. Green127.921.816.02.700
George Kittle115.230.311.53.015.32
Eric Ebron116.728.713.03.29.618.5
T.J. Yeldon131.31414.61.69.61.7
Stefon Diggs142.12.217.80.300
Keenan Allen128.812.314.31.413.74
Cooper Kupp98.836.312.44.512.1-3.2
Tarik Cohen98.536.410.94.015.11.3
DeSean Jackson93.740.510.44.513.2-1.5
Calvin Ridley80.549.78.95.59.2-2.2
Jarvis Landry171.4-42.417.1-4.28.2-4
Tyler Lockett7652.28.45.810.49.1
Adrian Peterson116.911.113.01.213-4.1
Tevin Coleman108.61712.11.920.5-11.2
Kenyan Drake121.92.112.20.28.4-2.6
Kenny Golladay10419.911.62.221.7-1.9
Kerryon Johnson108.814.912.11.719.27.7
Joe Mixon115.16.816.41.08.61.9
Golden Tate119.2214.90.35.2-1.9
Phillip Lindsay9920.111.02.200
John Brown114.24.512.70.500
Matt Breida88.829.78.93.01513.2
Sterling Shepard104.81311.61.47.64
Marvin Jones10510.811.71.29.9-1.4
Isaiah Crowell84.231.18.43.16.94.8
Jared Cook101.61311.31.412.1-2.9
Sammy Watkins95.118.610.62.100
Dion Lewis115.2-1.612.8-0.213.4-4.6
Corey Davis124.3-11.313.8-1.316.49.1
Chris Godwin94.714.610.51.611.75.6
O.J. Howard73.634.18.23.83-0.5
Tyrell Williams60.946.36.85.110.4-1.8
Alex Collins98.8811.00.900
Will Fuller72.933.410.44.800
Austin Hooper92.213.610.21.520.31.3
Dede Westbrook1014.111.20.519.4-10.1
Devin Funchess94.610.110.51.17.5-1.3
Nick Chubb7133.57.13.41421.7
Trey Burton8222.49.12.56.41.6
Danny Amendola95.13.59.50.416.4-2.2
Demaryius Thomas96.56.810.70.800
Latavius Murray80.222.78.92.500
Nelson Agholor112-10.612.4-1.212.31
Julian Edelman963.416.00.618.80.6
Michael Crabtree120.5-20.813.4-2.300
Nyheim Hines97.12.610.80.37.6-2.4
Donte Moncrief96.41.710.70.26.712.1
Jordan Howard107-9.211.9-1.06.5-2.3
Albert Wilson55.535.27.95.000
Austin Ekeler68.628.57.63.21.40.5
Willie Snead106.9-9.811.9-1.100
Allen Robinson82.714.111.82.012.518.8
Javorius Allen94.91.110.50.100
Ty Hilton93313.30.411-0.3
Alshon Jeffery86.39.314.41.613.3-4.5
Taylor Gabriel91.2410.10.44.1-4.1
Duke Johnson80.114.88.01.59.54.8
Josh Gordon85.88.610.71.117.7-5.6
Zay Jones97.7-3.59.8-0.4209.3
Lamar Miller99.5-5.512.4-0.700
Jalen Richard88.35.49.80.6100.9
Adam Humphries903.210.00.44.92.4
Mohamed Sanu76.2178.51.913.2-2.5
LeSean McCoy109.7-16.612.2-1.818.76.1
Larry Fitzgerald107.9-15.212.0-1.714.8-3.8
Aaron Jones64.128.29.24.017.814.4
Cole Beasley8111.39.01.37.8-0.1
Mike Davis83.57.110.40.917.10.9
Jimmy Graham93.4-4.510.4-0.51.50.9
Christian Kirk75.512.58.41.47.8-5
Amari Cooper88.3-1.111.0-0.117.2-3.7
David Njoku89.1-4.39.9-0.51.41.4
Mike Williams54.728.76.13.20.6-0.6
Anthony Miller69.313.58.71.710.113.1
Jordan Reed86.2-4.19.6-0.58.90.2
Vance McDonald60.820.27.62.56.87.6
Kyle Rudolph77.938.70.300
Rob Gronkowski66.513.39.51.900
Marlon Mack70.5914.11.89.3-3.5
Wendell Smallwood69.4108.71.35.11.3
Marshawn Lynch85.8-6.814.3-1.100
Carlos Hyde105.9-27.213.2-3.41.3-0.8
Jordy Nelson63.914.47.11.62-2
Chris Carson76.7111.00.100
Sony Michel83.5-7.111.9-1.07.8-4.7
Frank Gore81.1-5.38.1-0.59.62.6
Marquise Goodwin52.922.96.62.97.53.4
Kenny Stills55.320.36.12.35-0.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling63.112.17.91.511.1-0.7
Derrick Henry73.7-0.58.2-0.110.27.6
Robby Anderson64.18.78.01.100
Keelan Cole77-4.59.6-0.600
Antonio Callaway93.4-22.19.3-2.23.52.4
Ito Smith59.411.97.41.58.6-2
D.J. Moore53.416.75.91.98.2-1.7
Courtland Sutton691.17.70.100
Peyton Barber87.5-17.79.7-2.07.20.4
Mark Ingram61.18.412.21.71411.2
Quincy Enunwa86.8-17.310.9-2.211.6-5.8
Jesse James48.120.35.32.32.25.6
Benjamin Watson67.40.98.40.17.9-6.8
Chris Hogan57.510.85.81.11.5-1.5
Chester Rogers76.3-9.28.5-1.03.1-3.5
Chris Thompson63.32.912.70.600
Greg Olsen48.717.18.12.98.1-0.1
Kendrick Bourne6226.20.210.7-3.4
David Moore42.121.76.03.14.5-1.9
Chris Herndon40.522.25.12.86.10.3
Theo Riddick69.2-6.89.9-1.09.32.7
Bilal Powell65-2.79.3-0.400
Geronimo Allison48.513.89.72.800
Chris Ivory69.8-7.87.8-0.900
Phillip Dorsett57.34.37.20.53.10.7
Rashard Higgins42.818.36.12.61.68.2
Royce Freeman53.37.77.61.100
Giovani Bernard54.56.410.91.35.10.5
Ryan Grant59.21.48.50.21.9-0.3
Jakeem Grant52.97.45.30.71.8-1.8
Paul Richardson56.32.88.00.400
Jeff Heuerman75.1-16.49.4-2.100
Josh Doctson67.6-98.5-1.18.26.4
Pierre Garcon72-13.49.0-1.700
Laquon Treadwell62.9-4.67.0-0.500
Devontae Booker562.26.20.200
Randall Cobb60.2-2.312.0-0.500
Kyle Juszczyk47.210.44.71.03.4-0.1
Mark Andrews54.92.56.10.300
Cordarrelle Patterson58.5-1.85.9-0.22.4-1.3
Ricky Seals-Jones75-18.38.3-2.014-3.9
Kelvin Benjamin89.6-33.49.0-3.35-5
Alfred Blue74-17.98.2-2.000
Corey Clement61.5-5.58.8-0.85-3.2
Seth Roberts44.111.65.51.54.22.7
Dallas Goedert34.919.95.02.800
Maurice Harris58.6-3.89.8-0.68.22.4
Evan Engram530.18.80.08.30.3
Terrelle Pryor49.146.10.55-5
Curtis Samuel27.924.85.65.06.8-0.9
C.J. Uzomah43.69.14.81.050.3
Tre'Quan Smith34.117.34.92.500
Jamaal Williams65.7-157.3-1.71.4-1.1
Nick Vannett52.6-26.6-0.34.13.7
Doug Baldwin47.43.16.80.480.9
Allen Hurns53.3-3.25.9-0.42.93.1
Alfred Morris78.9-298.8-3.26-4.1
Geoff Swaim43.95.96.30.85.2-0.9
Jarius Wright47.12.55.20.33.71.5
Spencer Ware36.812.14.11.33.94.4
Michael Gallup50.5-25.6-0.24.21.2
Ty Montgomery50.5-2.17.2-0.300
Taywan Taylor48.8-0.46.1-0.100
Martavis Bryant45.52.46.50.34.80.1
Rashaad Penny43.24.76.20.75.910.9
Cameron Brate398.34.91.04.2-1.8
Jermaine Kearse82.4-35.39.2-3.97.9-4.3
Tajae Sharpe47.3-0.55.3-0.14.9-4.9
Keke Coutee52.4-5.813.1-1.500
Doug Martin56.5-11.16.3-1.214.7-2.5
LeGarrette Blount54.9-9.86.1-1.18.6-8.2
Torrey Smith43.51.67.30.300
Dalvin Cook44.4011.10.000
Vernon Davis32.112.14.01.51.4-1.4
Jay Ajayi39.14.39.81.100
Jordan Matthews26.916.14.52.74.92.1
Jordan Wilkins44.4-1.45.6-0.20.35
Jack Doyle43.8-1.211.0-0.36.60
Jacquizz Rodgers40.91.75.80.211.36.9
Kapri Bibbs31.710.45.31.77.1-1
Chris Conley40.41.54.50.23.20
Leonard Fournette42.3-1.414.1-0.527.40.5
Raheem Mostert25.115.54.22.600
Ted Ginn39.40.79.90.200
Trent Taylor44.7-4.75.6-0.61.40.8
Jordan Thomas29.7104.21.400
Tyler Eifert30.48.57.62.100
John Ross39.9-1.46.7-0.212.2-0.3
Tavon Austin2116.53.52.800
Ryan Switzer39.8-2.54.4-0.32.92.2
Gerald Everett35.81.34.00.13.46.1
Aldrick Robinson22.913.63.31.900
DeVante Parker40.7-4.28.1-0.818.2-8.9
Tyler Higbee333.54.10.46.15.4
Charles Clay50-14.16.3-1.800
Jamison Crowder35.10.88.80.200
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Virgil Green28.17.13.50.94.10.9
Malcolm Brown28.76.43.60.81.40.6
Jaron Brown21.812.54.42.500
Jonnu Smith33.50.74.20.16.86.7
Zach Pascal46.6-12.87.8-2.100
Erik Swoope16.916.43.43.300
Antonio Gates40.5-7.45.1-0.95-2.2
Michael Roberts23.88.64.81.74.6-2.7
Rhett Ellison30.41.93.80.21.50.1
Jason Croom30.123.80.300
Mike Gesicki38.5-6.44.3-0.71.40.1
Marcus Murphy44-12.47.3-2.17.3-0.4
Andre Holmes38.5-7.93.9-0.81.81.4
Brandon Marshall35.9-5.36.0-0.900
Josh Reynolds22.47.24.51.400
Josh Hill209.43.31.600
Mo Alie-Cox21.87.44.41.58.32.5
Marvin Hall17.811.12.51.61.80.4
James O'Shaughnessy36.5-7.85.2-1.18.11.5
Chad Williams48.9-20.66.1-2.600
D.J. Chark39.4-11.54.9-1.43-3
Nick Boyle48.9-21.36.1-2.700
Maxx Williams23.543.90.700
Brandon LaFell21.84.87.31.610.5-1.8
Trenton Cannon28.7-2.15.7-0.45.8-1.3
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Demetrius Harris19.27.23.81.400
Deonte Thompson30.7-4.34.4-0.600
Ryan Griffin44.2-17.96.3-2.600
Chris Moore24.41.83.10.200
Damion Ratley28.2-27.1-0.500
Chase Edmonds32.6-6.53.6-0.71.6-0.9
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.2-7.26.6-1.400
Demarcus Robinson27.6-3.53.5-0.46.1-0.1
Lance Kendricks231.12.90.12.81.6
Dante Pettis25.4-1.66.4-0.411.7-6.5
Equanimeous St. Brown23.7-0.14.70.04.9-2.6
Bruce Ellington20.42.86.80.900
Matt LaCosse22.803.30.000
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
Luke Stocker19.12.83.20.500
Darren Fells10.610.42.12.100
Nick O'Leary12.87.94.32.60.90.6
C.J. Anderson17.62.22.50.30.4-0.5
Anthony Sherman10.19.61.71.61.4-0.2
Corey Grant23.7-44.7-0.800
Ian Thomas25.3-5.65.1-1.100
James Washington30-10.45.0-1.700
Ronald Jones20.8-1.25.2-0.300
Josh Bellamy22.2-2.73.7-0.500
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Dontrelle Inman17.12.28.61.16.31.8
Wayne Gallman26.7-7.43.8-1.12.7-2.4
Logan Thomas18.5-0.33.7-0.11.5-0.4
Tim Patrick16.623.30.400
Luke Willson21.2-2.73.0-0.400
Elijah McGuire21.8-3.410.9-1.711.3-2.6
Jordan Akins21.4-3.53.1-0.500
James Develin27-9.73.0-1.13.42.7
Josh Adams15.91.13.20.23.80.9
Cody Latimer13.23.64.41.200
Ed Dickson7.98.92.63.01.51.9
Jake Butt18-1.56.0-0.500
Logan Paulsen9.86.32.51.64.2-0.9
Hayden Hurst13.62.12.70.400
Robert Foster18.8-3.23.8-0.66.17.4
Jordan Leggett20.7-5.23.0-0.71.50.1
Austin Carr16.3-1.12.7-0.23.60.4
C.J. Ham19.3-4.52.8-0.600
Rex Burkhead19.4-4.76.5-1.600
Seth DeValve14.30.14.80.000
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
A.J. Derby8.75.12.91.73.6-1.3
Justin Hardy18.8-54.7-1.31.70
Jaylen Samuels11.52.33.80.89.22.7
Alex Armah11.32.11.90.43.7-3.4
Breshad Perriman16.4-34.1-0.83.22.1
Alex Erickson24.2-114.8-2.200
Eric Tomlinson19.7-6.62.8-0.91.5-1.5
Jermaine Gresham10.52.32.60.600
Zach Line16.6-42.8-0.71.20.1
De'Anthony Thomas9.13.43.01.100
David Grinnage12.8-0.74.3-0.200
T.J. Jones14.9-2.83.0-0.62.3-0.1
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.100
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
Josh Perkins18-6.36.0-2.100
Darius Jennings9.31.21.90.21.2-0.2
Mark Walton17.6-6.13.5-1.200
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Bennie Fowler16.2-5.35.4-1.81.9-1.9
Cameron Batson10.50.23.50.14.61
Neal Sterling14.4-3.73.6-0.900
Kenneth Dixon7.92.57.92.500
Stevan Ridley14.5-4.12.4-0.75-2.4
Rod Smith15.3-5.22.6-0.92.50.7
Russell Shepard12.8-2.74.3-0.900
Dan Arnold8.71.32.90.43.51
Kevin White7.82.23.91.100
Cody Core12.9-3.24.3-1.130.7
Levine Toilolo90.71.80.11.61
Richie James5.64.12.82.100
Dwayne Harris10.1-0.81.7-0.13-2
Delanie Walker11.8-2.611.8-2.600
Jacob Hollister7.31.93.71.02.8-0.1
Derrick Willies7.31.87.31.800
Derek Carrier18.5-9.73.7-1.94.8-3.3
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Andy Janovich4.63.81.21.000
Blake Jarwin14.2-62.4-1.000
Gus Edwards9-0.92.3-0.200
Antony Auclair7.802.60.000
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
DaeSean Hamilton4.92.54.92.500
Xavier Grimble61.42.00.500
Darren Sproles13.3-6.113.3-6.100
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.900
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.100
Blake Bell6.70.33.40.24.30.4
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.500
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.100
J.J. Nelson17.9-11.32.6-1.62.1-3.1
Rico Gathers11.4-4.82.3-1.000
Roosevelt Nix5.31.31.80.42.80.9
Keith Kirkwood2.83.72.83.72.83.7
Michael Floyd13.1-6.63.3-1.75.5-2
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Shaun Wilson10.2-3.82.0-0.85.3-4
Dalton Schultz7.4-1.13.7-0.631.1
Eric Saubert11.3-52.8-1.35.8-3.1
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
Kalen Ballage6.3-0.21.30.01.40.2
Travis Benjamin14.1-82.8-1.60.6-0.8
Samaje Perine7.8-1.82.6-0.600
Rashad Greene5.30.51.80.20.91.2
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
Andre Roberts13.7-83.4-2.000
Dwayne Allen50.71.70.21.50.5
Isaiah McKenzie4.51.14.51.14.51.1
Marcedes Lewis4.11.41.40.51.32.7
Lee Smith5.9-0.65.9-0.600
Chad Beebe4.30.84.30.800
Justin Hunter15.4-10.35.1-3.400
Scott Simonson13.3-8.23.3-2.100
C.J. Prosise3.912.00.50.3-0.6
Dwayne Washington5.6-0.72.8-0.44.8-0.1
Damien Williams5.3-0.41.1-0.100
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Justin Jackson5-0.42.5-0.200
Charone Peake4.7-0.21.6-0.11.50.6
Tommy Bohanon6.8-2.31.7-0.61.40.1
Leonte Carroo2.81.62.81.62.81.6
Patrick DiMarco31.41.50.700
Jordan Franks1.52.71.52.700
De'Lance Turner3.20.91.60.500
DeAndre Carter31.11.50.600
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Rishard Matthews9.5-5.43.2-1.81.2-1.2
Derrick Coleman3.40.60.90.200
Ameer Abdullah2.61.31.30.700
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Vyncint Smith7.4-3.63.7-1.800
Nick Williams6.1-2.42.0-0.800
Elijhaa Penny30.41.50.22.70.5
Jamaal Charles6.8-3.43.4-1.700
Orson Charles6.2-2.81.6-0.71.50.1
T.J. Logan2.70.72.70.72.70.7
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Ben Braunecker3.9-0.92.0-0.51.51.5
Dontrell Hilliard3.61.41.20.50.90.7
Dion Sims6.2-3.33.1-1.700
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
DeAndre Washington2.20.51.10.300
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Khadarel Hodge1.411.41.000
Tim White1.411.41.000
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Josh Malone6-3.83.0-1.900
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
Corey Coleman1.50.61.50.61.50.6
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
Tre Madden3.8-1.81.0-0.500
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Darrius Heyward-Bey1.60.31.60.31.60.3
Russell Gage1.70.21.70.200
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.700
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Marcus Kemp3.1-1.41.6-0.71.5-1.5
Alan Cross5.7-4.11.9-1.400
Brandon Powell4.6-34.6-3.04.6-3
David Fluellen1.8-0.20.9-0.11.30.1
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Justin Watson1.501.50.000
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Taquan Mizzell5.7-4.22.9-2.10.8-0.8
Matt Lengel3-1.61.5-0.800
Jamize Olawale1.5-0.21.5-0.200
Chris Manhertz3.1-1.93.1-1.900
Zach Zenner0.50.70.50.70.50.7
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Derek Watt1.3-10.7-0.51-0.8
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
Auden Tate1.6-1.61.6-1.61.6-1.6
Brice Butler1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Brian Parker2.9-2.91.5-1.500
Cole Wick4.3-4.34.3-4.300
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600

Observations

  • Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, only four players are averaging more than 20 total expected points per game — all are running backs. Somewhat surprisingly, not a single player is averaging double-digit expected points in both the rushing and receiving games.2 This highlights the difference between the top performances we’re seeing this year and those we’ve seen in the past. double-digit-epEven though Todd Gurley is having one of the five best RB seasons since 2000 in terms of PPR scoring, in total expected points he is outside the top 15. Both David Johnson’s and Le’Veon Bell’s 2016 seasons rank higher, and Bell also ranked higher in 2017.
  • Gurley is outperforming his opportunity, yet he is still not even the most efficient RB in 2018. That would be Melvin Gordon, whose 7.8 fantasy points over expectation per game rank first among all non-QBs. Gordon faces a favorable schedule over the coming weeks, according to the Weekly Stat Explorer, so he might actually be able to keep it up.Screen Shot 2018-11-15 at 3.58.06 PM
  • Speaking of David Johnson, he finally had a game his owners were expecting when they drafted him. His 27.4 total expected points ranked third in Week 10. Among players who had at least 20 total expected points, only Zach Ertz did more with his opportunity.
  • Ertz has yet to finish a game in 2018 outside of the top 12 at TE. In the 2018 TE landscape, that might not sound very hard. But in fact, there have only been three games this season — out of nine — in which Ertz hasn’t been a top-three TE.Screen Shot 2018-11-15 at 4.09.20 PMInterestingly, Ertz has been at his best this year in negative game script. He’s scored 20 or more points in all five of Philadelphia’s losses, while failing to reach 20 in the Eagles’ four wins. On Sunday Philadelphia travels to New Orleans, where they are 7.5-point underdogs in a game with an over/under north of 55.Screen Shot 2018-11-15 at 4.09.56 PM You’re obviously starting Ertz in your season-long leagues no matter who else you have on your team, but maybe don’t overthink the TE position in DFS either.

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)
  2. Alvin Kamara is very close, with 9.8 rushing EP per game.  (back)

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