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Week 16: QB Streaming in the Championship Game

QB rankings and streaming advice for Week 16 of the 2018 fantasy football season.

It’s over pretty much as soon as it started and now here we are. The end of the fantasy football season; and what a season it was.

We witnessed young, raw talent make history.

Patrick Mahomes became the first player since 1933 with six touchdowns and five turnovers in a game and passed the Chiefs franchise record for most passing touchdowns in a single season … by Week 10.

Mahomes — as well as Nick Mullens – are on pace to join only three other players in history who’ve averaged 8.5 yards/attempt on 200-plus pass attempts over a season.

Mitchell Trubisky has led the Bears to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, Baker Mayfield has the Browns on pace for their first winning record since 2007 and Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback in history to have five straight games with over 70 yards rushing.

Meanwhile, a couple veteran champions have struggled to live up to their fantasy potential: It’s Week 16 and Tom Brady’s Patriots have yet to clinch the playoffs, with more losses than any Bill Belichick team since 2009. And Aaron Rodgers — albeit injured, with limited weapons and an interim head coach — has had some of the worst plays in his career.

As for Week 15, no quarterback scored more than 25 fantasy points for the first time this season in leagues where you get six points for passing touchdowns.

In some of my final picks of the season, Lamar Jackson continued to deliver as a reliable QB2 with potential for QB1 production. I was correct in the fact that Nick Foles was who the Eagles needed to get back into the playoff hunt – but it was unfortunately not enough to provide substantial fantasy value. And it seems Derek Carr isn’t capable of bouncing back this season, as shown by the recent signing of Nathan Peterman to the Raiders.

Pick QB ESPN Points QB Rank
TwoQB Lamar Jackson 16.7 9
Streamer Nick Foles 9.3 23
Bounceback Derek Carr 12.6 16

CUMULATIVE 2018 FANTASY SEASON RESULTS

Though I had my own highs and lows this season, as I evaluate my performance as a whole I can confidently say my picks stayed in-line with most drafted quarterbacks – further validating the streamer strategy. My streamer pick averaged 17.4 points per week, which, coming off the waiver wire shows a fairly high floor. Both my 2QB and streamer pick averaged a QB ranking in the top 15 – though it seems I have too much clouded optimism in bounce back candidates.1

Pick FPPG QB Rank
2QB 16.7 15
Favorite Streamer 17.4 14
Bounceback 13.9 18

Overall, it was a fun season that delivered in its fair share of surprise performances. And now come our final streaming picks and rankings for the 2018 fantasy football season.2

Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

Quarterback Matchup Ranking
Patrick Mahomes at Seattle 1
Deshaun Watson at Philadelphia 2
Russell Wilson vs Kansas City 3
Ben Roethlisberger at New Orleans 4
Andrew Luck vs NY Giants 5
Matt Ryan at Carolina 6
Mitchell Trubisky at San Francisco 7
Drew Brees vs Pittsburgh 8
Baker Mayfield vs Cincinnati 9
Aaron Rodgers at NY Jets 10
Tom Brady vs Buffalo 11
Philip Rivers vs Baltimore 12
Dak Prescott vs Tampa Bay 13
Josh Allen at New England 14
Kirk Cousins at Detriot 15
Marcus Mariota vs Washington 16
Lamar Jackson at LA Chargers 17
Josh Johnson at Tennessee 18
Sam Darnold vs Green Bay 19
Jared Goff at Arizona 20
Derek Carr vs Denver 21
Jameis Winston at Dallas 22
Nick Mullens vs Chicago 23
Nick Foles vs Houston 24
Case Keenum at Oakland 25
Ryan Tannehill vs Jacksonville 26
Eli Manning at Indianapolis 27
Jeff Driskel at Cleveland 28
Matthew Stafford vs Minnesota 29
Cody Kessler at Miami 30
Josh Rosen vs LA Rams 31
Taylor Heinicke vs Atlanta 32

Week 16 Streaming Recommendations

At this point of the season, 16 starting quarterbacks fit within the threshold of under 50 percent owned – almost half of your total options. They are:  

Low-Owned Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Johnson
Nick Mullens
Derek Carr
Case Keenum
Matthew Stafford
Baker Mayfield
Jeff Driskel
Nick Foles
Eli Manning
Cody Kessler
Marcus Mariota
Ryan Tannehill
Josh Rosen
Taylor Heinicke (he’s on the Panthers)

Some for good reason, some because they were the only option left. Last week Sam Darnold and Josh Allen gave you top-five quarterback production. Josh Johnson and Nick Mullens were in the top 15. However, both Johnson’s (at Tennnessee) and Mullens’ (vs. Chicago) matchups for Week 16 do not make them viable options. Meanwhile, Carr, Case Keenum and Eli Manning have proved themselves unstartable this season. If you recently lost Carson Wentz or Cam Newton, there are still a couple worthy hail mary attempts to help secure that championship win.

TwoQB Pick of the Week – Baker Mayfield vs Cincinnati

Projected: 17.8
Ownership: 47.9%
GSLP: 20.6

The last time Mayfield played Cincinnati he had four touchdown passes in his best fantasy game of the season. Not much has improved on the Bengals defense since then — having allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season — and it doesn’t help that their offense can’t stay on the field long enough for the defense to recover. Although Mayfield has been a little sloppy the last few weeks in terms of accuracy and turnovers, he has a reliably high floor with potential for top five production. In his last home game of the season, with the Browns still (technically) in the playoff picture, he’s a safe add in two quarterback and deeper leagues.

Favorite Streamer – Josh Allen at New England

Projected: 16.9
Ownership: 31.4%
GSLP: 16.7

It’s not the best matchup, but at this stage Allen has given us no reason to doubt him. Since he’s returned from injury, Allen has thrown for 200-plus yards each week and has made it within the top-five QB ranking three of the four. He has also managed to put up RB1 numbers in each of those weeks. His completion percentage (52.2) is less than appealing but his running ability matched with his tough o-line, who only allowed one hit against Detroit last Sunday, makes him streamable in this week’s divisional matchup against the Patriots. New England has struggled in the past few weeks and their pass rush is equally as non threatening at Detriot’s. There is some risk, but Allen’s average 23 fantasy points the last four weeks make him an ideal streaming option.

  1. I did not make a bounce back pick this week for that reason.  (back)
  2. Ownership and projected points are from ESPN Fantasy. Rankings based on GSLP, FPPG and matchup. GSLP models were run three times – six weeks back, four weeks back and three weeks back, averaging results.  (back)

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