PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Plays, and Ownership Projections for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Credit: Tim Spyers/Icon Sportswire Pictured: Brooks Koepka

 

The course for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week is one that we’ve only seen one other time on tour. It’s Trinity Forest Golf Club and it’s a par 71 that plays right around 7,400 yards. We’ve only seen this course played on Tour on one other occasion. If you’re interested in a detailed look at how the course played last year, check out the preview and trends article.

Checking the Chalk

Brooks Koepka ($11,400) is at the top of the salary heap this week in a relatively weak field. He’s coming off of a second place finish at the Masters. Koepka has developed a bit of a reputation for only showing up for majors. His wins have come in majors but if that’s a knock against me, I’d take it in a heartbeat. It’s also not really true, but that’s a story for another day. He lost it on approach right before the Masters at TPC Sawgrass, but he hadn’t hit fewer than 65% of GIR since September. He’s scored at least 75 DK Points in four of his past five starts.

He’s two months removed from his first win, and it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster since then. If you could design a track for Keith Mitchell ($9,100), I’d imagine it would look a bit like Trinity Forest. Since the start of 2019, Mitchell has made 11 starts. He’s scored 60-plus DK points in eight of those starts, including three 90-plus point performances. Mitchell played well here last year as he hit 90% of GIR and finished in third place.

Trey Mullinax ($7,600) has averaged 65% of GIR in each of his past two starts and his splits over his last 15 rounds are encouraging. His putter was a lot like Bruce Banner in Infinity War last week. The Hulk never came out, it was just Bruce. He lost 3.3 strokes on the greens as he settled into a tie for 50th place. Mullinax’s solid putting performances are few and far between. He’s lost strokes putting in all but three of his last 15 starts heading into this week. It would be an understatement to say that Mullinax hasn’t quite found his ceiling yet this season. It’s possible that a wide open course with plenty of birdie opportunities can get him on track, but ownership is key. If he pushes into the mid-teens, I’m out.

Mullinax splits (Last 4 Events)

Note: As always, make sure you check out the model and ownership projections below. As I’m writing this, it looks like these are some of the popular options, but things change as the week goes on.

GPP Plays

Sungjae Im ($9,600) has the potential to pick apart a golf course like this. After running the model this week, he’s tied for the fourth best score and is below $10,000 in a weak field. With just a bit of chaos in the five-figure salary range, you could be looking at a massive advantage with Im. Over his past 50 rounds, Im has scored the sixth most DK points in the field. If that’s too long of a time frame, over the last 24 rounds he’s fifth in that same category. He’s my favorite play of the week.

Scottie Scheffler ($7,900) is getting some buzz this week and he showed up well in the model. If you’re looking for an ownership discount around the same price, Jimmy Walker ($7,700) makes a bit of sense from a fit perspective. He’s been making cuts in some difficult fields including the Masters, The PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This field is much weaker and could give Walker a chance to pop a little bit. At low ownership if he can finish in the top 25, he can pay off nicely as leverage off of a higher owned Scheffler.

Matt Jones ($7,500) is another guy that seems poised for a breakout. After some ups and downs, he’s currently on a streak of eight straight made cuts including four finishes in the DK bonus. Over the past two seasons, on courses over 7,300 yards he’s averaging 2.6 SG: Tee to Green compared to out of that split where he’s averaging just 0.26 in the same category. Over his past 24 rounds, he’s scored the 23rd most DK points and is at a very palatable price.

He’s becoming a staple here at RotoViz, but I wrote up Hank Lebioda ($6,700) for the Yahoo! Article and all of that applies for DK as well.

Cash Locks

We suffered just our third missed cut of the season in this section this week as Charles Howell bit the big one. So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 29/32 made cuts, 20/30 top 30s, and 12/30 top 10s. Let’s get it back on track with this week’s locks.

  • Sungjae Im ($9,600)
  • Matt Jones ($7,500)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - AT&T Byron Nelson

*Note: This is the final run of ownership projections.
Player NameDK SalaryT15 ScoreOwnership
Brooks Koepka114000.9121.35
Hideki Matsuyama110000.9919.35
Jordan Spieth108000.896.85
Henrik Stenson103000.7617.35
Marc Leishman100000.7425.35
Patrick Reed98000.8810.10
Sung-jae Im96000.9812.60
Aaron Wise94000.8714.35
Branden Grace92000.618.35
Keith Mitchell91000.5425.35
Rory Sabbatini90000.989.35
Kevin Na89000.886.35
Ryan Moore88000.9313.35
Lucas Bjerregaard87000.1710.10
Rafael Cabrera Bello86000.2822.73
Charles Howell III85001.0012.64
Scott Piercy84000.3517.35
Thomas Pieters83000.4410.35
Alexander Noren82000.064.35
Thorbjorn Olesen81000.944.35
Ryan Palmer80000.5314.94
Russell Knox80000.967.85
Scott Scheffler79000.9114.35
Cheng Tsung Pan79000.718.01
Justin Harding78000.135.35
J.J. Spaun78000.084.84
Pat Perez77000.6813.35
Jimmy Walker77000.8114.35
Seamus Power77000.675.71
Trey Mullinax76000.5818.85
Abraham Ancer76000.3913.29
Kevin Tway76000.7811.87
Dylan Frittelli75000.6510.60
Daniel Berger75000.327.85
Kyoung-Hoon Lee75000.624.35
Matt Jones75000.994.94
Brian Stuard74000.7010.66
Kiradech Aphibarnrat74000.486.27
Nick Watney74000.644.55
Bud Cauley74000.963.57
Austin Cook74000.452.40
Sung-Hoon Kang73000.091.76
JT Poston73000.033.00
Wyndham Clark73000.866.35
Aaron Baddeley73000.933.49
Russell Henley73000.801.79
Brian Gay73000.841.73
Ollie Schniederjans72000.668.10
Sam Burns72000.394.66
Michael Thompson72000.832.85
Andrew Landry72000.372.40
Brian Harman72000.731.72
Martin Laird72000.560.61
Troy Merritt71000.656.19
Beau Hossler71000.225.73
Scott Stallings71000.694.40
Vaughn Taylor71000.551.79
Denny McCarthy71000.521.04
Bill Haas71000.900.53
Brendon Todd71000.600.40
Adam Schenk70000.3311.76
Nick Taylor70000.512.18
Kramer Hickok70000.821.54
Shawn Stefani70000.581.43
Peter Malnati70000.431.02
Ryan Blaum70000.140.98
Luke Donald70000.850.82
Mackenzie Hughes70000.020.50
D.J. Trahan69000.591.18
Billy Hurley III69000.460.87
Curtis Luck69000.180.81
Alex Prugh69000.440.79
Padraig Harrington69000.950.40
Sam Saunders69000.250.40
Harris English69000.830.40
Jonas Blixt69000.360.40
Julian Etulain68000.670.86
Johnson Wagner68000.270.86
Peter Uihlein68000.750.64
Chris Stroud68000.260.51
Roberto Castro68000.850.40
David Lingmerth68000.800.40
Cameron Tringale68000.480.40
Cody Gribble68000.230.40
Henry Lebioda67000.979.35
Brandon Harkins67000.321.36
Cameron Davis67000.400.99
Fabian Gomez67000.490.75
Ernie Els67000.890.40
Ben Crane67000.780.40
David Hearn67000.760.40
Matt Every67000.260.40
Jim Knous66000.346.85
Carlos Ortiz66000.470.82
Dominic Bozzelli66000.600.80
Robert Streb66000.630.40
Anirban Lahiri66000.160.40
Chase Wright66000.050.40
Roberto Diaz66000.030.40
George McNeill66000.290.40
Doug Ghim65000.751.72
Hudson Swafford65000.290.82
Josh Teater65000.310.71
Andres Romero65000.370.69
Martin Trainer65000.860.50
Kelly Kraft65000.080.40
Derek Fathauer65000.170.40
Colt Knost65000.470.30
Meen Whee Kim64000.220.40
Sang-moon Bae64000.040.40
Anders Albertson64000.140.40
Stephan Jaeger64000.920.40
Jonathan Byrd64000.810.40
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez64000.070.40
Chad Campbell64000.710.30
Ricky Barnes64000.720.30
Nate Lashley63000.456.35
Seth Reeves63000.240.65
Sebastian Munoz63000.730.30
Tom Hoge63000.040.30
Michael Kim63000.520.30
Tyler Duncan63000.380.30
Wes Roach63000.350.30
Tyrone Van Aswegen63000.420.30
Benjamin Silverman62000.300.30
Sepp Straka62000.411.10
Roger Sloan62000.120.69
Adam Svensson62000.500.30
Tom Lovelady62000.770.20
Nicholas Lindheim62000.150.20
J.J. Henry62000.420.20
Will MacKenzie62000.210.20
Alvaro Ortiz62000.010.20
Fredrik Jacobson61000.210.10
Brandon Hagy61000.340.59
Zack Sucher61000.010.30
Kyle Jones61000.530.20
Brady Schnell61000.300.20
Joey Garber61000.060.20
John Chin61000.190.20
Morgan Hoffmann61000.570.10
Will Claxton61000.100.10
Tony Romo60000.191.02
Smylie Kaufman60000.240.59
Martin Piller60000.570.57
Chris Thompson60000.120.20
Rod Pampling60000.680.10
Chad Collins60000.630.10
Jim Herman60000.400.10
Kris Blanks60000.160.10
Stuart Deane60000.090.10
Davis Riley60000.000.10

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