The course for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week is one that we’ve only seen one other time on tour. It’s Trinity Forest Golf Club and it’s a par 71 that plays right around 7,400 yards. We’ve only seen this course played on Tour on one other occasion. If you’re interested in a detailed look at how the course played last year, check out the preview and trends article.
Checking the Chalk
Brooks Koepka ($11,400) is at the top of the salary heap this week in a relatively weak field. He’s coming off of a second place finish at the Masters. Koepka has developed a bit of a reputation for only showing up for majors. His wins have come in majors but if that’s a knock against me, I’d take it in a heartbeat. It’s also not really true, but that’s a story for another day. He lost it on approach right before the Masters at TPC Sawgrass, but he hadn’t hit fewer than 65% of GIR since September. He’s scored at least 75 DK Points in four of his past five starts.
He’s two months removed from his first win, and it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster since then. If you could design a track for Keith Mitchell ($9,100), I’d imagine it would look a bit like Trinity Forest. Since the start of 2019, Mitchell has made 11 starts. He’s scored 60-plus DK points in eight of those starts, including three 90-plus point performances. Mitchell played well here last year as he hit 90% of GIR and finished in third place.
Trey Mullinax ($7,600) has averaged 65% of GIR in each of his past two starts and his splits over his last 15 rounds are encouraging. His putter was a lot like Bruce Banner in Infinity War last week. The Hulk never came out, it was just Bruce. He lost 3.3 strokes on the greens as he settled into a tie for 50th place. Mullinax’s solid putting performances are few and far between. He’s lost strokes putting in all but three of his last 15 starts heading into this week. It would be an understatement to say that Mullinax hasn’t quite found his ceiling yet this season. It’s possible that a wide open course with plenty of birdie opportunities can get him on track, but ownership is key. If he pushes into the mid-teens, I’m out.
Note: As always, make sure you check out the model and ownership projections below. As I’m writing this, it looks like these are some of the popular options, but things change as the week goes on.
Sungjae Im ($9,600) has the potential to pick apart a golf course like this. After running the model this week, he’s tied for the fourth best score and is below $10,000 in a weak field. With just a bit of chaos in the five-figure salary range, you could be looking at a massive advantage with Im. Over his past 50 rounds, Im has scored the sixth most DK points in the field. If that’s too long of a time frame, over the last 24 rounds he’s fifth in that same category. He’s my favorite play of the week.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,900) is getting some buzz this week and he showed up well in the model. If you’re looking for an ownership discount around the same price, Jimmy Walker ($7,700) makes a bit of sense from a fit perspective. He’s been making cuts in some difficult fields including the Masters, The PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This field is much weaker and could give Walker a chance to pop a little bit. At low ownership if he can finish in the top 25, he can pay off nicely as leverage off of a higher owned Scheffler.
Matt Jones ($7,500) is another guy that seems poised for a breakout. After some ups and downs, he’s currently on a streak of eight straight made cuts including four finishes in the DK bonus. Over the past two seasons, on courses over 7,300 yards he’s averaging 2.6 SG: Tee to Green compared to out of that split where he’s averaging just 0.26 in the same category. Over his past 24 rounds, he’s scored the 23rd most DK points and is at a very palatable price.
He’s becoming a staple here at RotoViz, but I wrote up Hank Lebioda ($6,700) for the Yahoo! Article and all of that applies for DK as well.
We suffered just our third missed cut of the season in this section this week as Charles Howell bit the big one. So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 29/32 made cuts, 20/30 top 30s, and 12/30 top 10s. Let’s get it back on track with this week’s locks.
- Sungjae Im ($9,600)
- Matt Jones ($7,500)
Ownership Projections and Model Results - AT&T Byron Nelson*Note: This is the final run of ownership projections.
|Player Name||DK Salary||T15 Score||Ownership|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||8600||0.28||22.73|
|Charles Howell III||8500||1.00||12.64|
|Cheng Tsung Pan||7900||0.71||8.01|
|Billy Hurley III||6900||0.46||0.87|
|Meen Whee Kim||6400||0.22||0.40|
|Jose de Jesus Rodriguez||6400||0.07||0.40|
|Tyrone Van Aswegen||6300||0.42||0.30|
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