Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy

The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects

In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...

Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database

Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...

Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?

Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...

3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings

Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...

Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty

Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...

Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder

The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...

Is Jalin Hyatt a Legit First-Round Talent and Future Dynasty Star? The Advanced Metrics Are Pretty Crazy

Jalin Hyatt is widely expected to be taken in the first round of the reality draft. The speed and explosiveness he displayed at the combine only solidifies his draft stock. Yet he routinely slips to the second round of dynasty rookie mock drafts. Are NFL GMs overvaluing Hyatt’s final season production and tested athleticism? Or are fantasy GMs undervaluing Hyatt’s on-field abilities? The Box Score…...

4 Wide Receivers Who Boosted Their Stock at the Combine, and 2 Who Should Have Skipped It Altogether: 2023 Combine Winners and Losers

In many ways the NFL combine marks the unofficial start to the 2023 offseason. Although best balls drafts are in full swing, it’s not until the annual underwear olympics that we get new data on soon-to-be NFL players. In a lot of cases this new data just confirms what we already expected. But occasionally there are some surprises — both positive and negative. Those surprises…...

Cooper Kupp and David Johnson Were Once Small School Stars – 4 FCS Players to Watch in 2023

It’s rare for a player who didn’t go to a Power-Five school — let alone an FBS school — to make it big in the NFL. Yet occasionally, players from the FCS and lower divisions do hit in big ways. Christian Watson (North Dakota State) is the most recent example, but players like Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington), David Johnson (Northern Iowa), Tarik Cohen (North Carolina…...

When Wide Receiver Isn’t an Option: How to Navigate the Middle Rounds of a Superflex Draft

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. The FFPC is running two “Never-Too-Early” Best Ball Tournaments. Shawn Siegele and I are currently taking part in a draft for the Superflex version. Superflex drafts add several strategic wrinkles. While standard 1-quarterback best ball is far from solved, there are a few dominant strategies that most players are…...

A Superflex Best Ball Tournament Is the Perfect Format for Contrarian Strategies, But How Crazy Can You Get?

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. Underdog’s Big Board Tournament includes upcoming 2023 rookies and pays out $200,000 to first place. Their Little Board follows the same basic structure but costs less to enter, has fewer entrants, and pays out $10,000 to first. If you’re new to Underdog and want to get in on the…...

Is Isaiah Hodgins the Real Deal? 1 Big Thing from Wild Card Weekend

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. The New York Giants upset Minnesota on Sunday in part because of the heroics of Isaiah Hodgins. So far only two receivers scored more fantasy points in the playoffs’ opening round. Among players with more…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts for Running Backs? The Wrong Read, No. 75

In the 75th installment of The Wrong Read, Blair Andrews takes a deep dive into the metrics that best help us find Year 2 running back breakouts. Does efficiency make a difference? Can we beat draft position? Are we looking for different profiles from late picks compared to early picks? Last week I explored which Year 1 metrics help us predict Year 2 wide receiver…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts? – The Wrong Read, No. 74

Earlier this week I explored George Pickens’ chances for a Year 2 breakout. While he’s got a lot going in his favor, there are some red flags. But it does raise the question of which metrics actually matter for predicting Year 2 breakouts. Which red flags should we actually be concerned about? Which metrics are so important that they drown out any red flags? How…...

Is George Pickens In Line for a Year 2 Breakout? 1 Big Thing from Week 16

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. George Pickens led all Steelers in PPR points in Week 16. That sounds pretty good, but he had only 16.7 points. He’s only surpassed that number twice this season. Despite making a few amazing catches,…...

How to Leverage the RotoViz Tools to Dominate DFS: Top Stacks for Small-Field DraftKings Tournaments

Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools and signature metrics such as expected points and game-level similarity projections to find underutilized but high-upside stacks for the Christmas Eve slate on DraftKings. I’m filling in for Michael Hitchcock this week. If you’ve been reading Michael’s work this season, you know that he’s been on fire in small-field DraftKings tournaments. And that’s no fluke. Michael strategically picks his…...

Trevor Lawrence Is the Next Breakout Quarterback Star: 1 Big Thing from Week 15

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, but failed to live up to the hype, as he struggled with passing efficiency throughout his rookie season. He had only four QB1 weeks in…...

Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy

The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects

In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...

Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database

Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...

Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?

Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...

3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings

Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...

Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty

Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...

Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder

The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...

Is Jalin Hyatt a Legit First-Round Talent and Future Dynasty Star? The Advanced Metrics Are Pretty Crazy

Jalin Hyatt is widely expected to be taken in the first round of the reality draft. The speed and explosiveness he displayed at the combine only solidifies his draft stock. Yet he routinely slips to the second round of dynasty rookie mock drafts. Are NFL GMs overvaluing Hyatt’s final season production and tested athleticism? Or are fantasy GMs undervaluing Hyatt’s on-field abilities? The Box Score…...

4 Wide Receivers Who Boosted Their Stock at the Combine, and 2 Who Should Have Skipped It Altogether: 2023 Combine Winners and Losers

In many ways the NFL combine marks the unofficial start to the 2023 offseason. Although best balls drafts are in full swing, it’s not until the annual underwear olympics that we get new data on soon-to-be NFL players. In a lot of cases this new data just confirms what we already expected. But occasionally there are some surprises — both positive and negative. Those surprises…...

Cooper Kupp and David Johnson Were Once Small School Stars – 4 FCS Players to Watch in 2023

It’s rare for a player who didn’t go to a Power-Five school — let alone an FBS school — to make it big in the NFL. Yet occasionally, players from the FCS and lower divisions do hit in big ways. Christian Watson (North Dakota State) is the most recent example, but players like Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington), David Johnson (Northern Iowa), Tarik Cohen (North Carolina…...

When Wide Receiver Isn’t an Option: How to Navigate the Middle Rounds of a Superflex Draft

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. The FFPC is running two “Never-Too-Early” Best Ball Tournaments. Shawn Siegele and I are currently taking part in a draft for the Superflex version. Superflex drafts add several strategic wrinkles. While standard 1-quarterback best ball is far from solved, there are a few dominant strategies that most players are…...

A Superflex Best Ball Tournament Is the Perfect Format for Contrarian Strategies, But How Crazy Can You Get?

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. Underdog’s Big Board Tournament includes upcoming 2023 rookies and pays out $200,000 to first place. Their Little Board follows the same basic structure but costs less to enter, has fewer entrants, and pays out $10,000 to first. If you’re new to Underdog and want to get in on the…...

Is Isaiah Hodgins the Real Deal? 1 Big Thing from Wild Card Weekend

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. The New York Giants upset Minnesota on Sunday in part because of the heroics of Isaiah Hodgins. So far only two receivers scored more fantasy points in the playoffs’ opening round. Among players with more…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts for Running Backs? The Wrong Read, No. 75

In the 75th installment of The Wrong Read, Blair Andrews takes a deep dive into the metrics that best help us find Year 2 running back breakouts. Does efficiency make a difference? Can we beat draft position? Are we looking for different profiles from late picks compared to early picks? Last week I explored which Year 1 metrics help us predict Year 2 wide receiver…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts? – The Wrong Read, No. 74

Earlier this week I explored George Pickens’ chances for a Year 2 breakout. While he’s got a lot going in his favor, there are some red flags. But it does raise the question of which metrics actually matter for predicting Year 2 breakouts. Which red flags should we actually be concerned about? Which metrics are so important that they drown out any red flags? How…...

Is George Pickens In Line for a Year 2 Breakout? 1 Big Thing from Week 16

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. George Pickens led all Steelers in PPR points in Week 16. That sounds pretty good, but he had only 16.7 points. He’s only surpassed that number twice this season. Despite making a few amazing catches,…...

How to Leverage the RotoViz Tools to Dominate DFS: Top Stacks for Small-Field DraftKings Tournaments

Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools and signature metrics such as expected points and game-level similarity projections to find underutilized but high-upside stacks for the Christmas Eve slate on DraftKings. I’m filling in for Michael Hitchcock this week. If you’ve been reading Michael’s work this season, you know that he’s been on fire in small-field DraftKings tournaments. And that’s no fluke. Michael strategically picks his…...

Trevor Lawrence Is the Next Breakout Quarterback Star: 1 Big Thing from Week 15

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, but failed to live up to the hype, as he struggled with passing efficiency throughout his rookie season. He had only four QB1 weeks in…...

Is the NFL Draft Efficient? Running Back Metrics That Help You Project the NFL Draft . . . and Then Beat It In Fantasy

The NFL Draft is only hours away, and when it comes we will get our most telling indication of how our favorite prospect’s NFL careers might go. Nothing predicts NFL success better than draft position, in part because nothing determines early NFL opportunity quite like draft position. But just because draft position is the most predictive metric, that doesn’t mean it’s entirely efficient. What do…...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a Multi-Definitional Look at Breakout Age for Wide Receiver Prospects

In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...

Anthony Richardson, Kayshon Boutte, and How Fantasy Managers Can Beat the NFL Draft: The 2023 NFL Prospect Age Database

Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...

Chase Brown’s Insane Production Hasn’t Yet Earned Him the Approval of NFL Scouts — Is This an Exploitable Inefficiency or a Failure of the Metrics?

Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...

3 Small (or Small School) Running Backs Who Could Surprise You, and 1 Trendy Name with a Major Red Flag: 2023 Backfield Dominator Ratings

Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...

Jamaal Williams Is a Sneaky Pick to Regain Elements of His Green Bay Profile and Benefit from Alvin Kamara Uncertainty

Jamaal Williams has signed a three-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $12 million, with $8 million guaranteed. Williams is coming off a league leading 17-touchdown season on the back of 46 green zone touches (also the most in the league). Can he replicate this type of season in New Orleans? Williams’ Breakout Season Williams is moving to his third team since entering the…...

Jimmy Garoppolo Finally Ready to Add Fantasy Exploits to His Reality Value? 3 Stealth Reasons He’s More Than a Placeholder

The Raiders wasted little time in replacing their long-time quarterback Derek Carr (now a New Orleans Saint). They all but signed Jimmy Garoppolo on the first day of the NFL’s “legal tampering” period. The deal will be official on Wednesday, but is apparently worth $67.5 million over three years. Is Garoppolo a suitable replacement for Carr? How will he fit in the Raiders’ offense? And…...

Is Jalin Hyatt a Legit First-Round Talent and Future Dynasty Star? The Advanced Metrics Are Pretty Crazy

Jalin Hyatt is widely expected to be taken in the first round of the reality draft. The speed and explosiveness he displayed at the combine only solidifies his draft stock. Yet he routinely slips to the second round of dynasty rookie mock drafts. Are NFL GMs overvaluing Hyatt’s final season production and tested athleticism? Or are fantasy GMs undervaluing Hyatt’s on-field abilities? The Box Score…...

4 Wide Receivers Who Boosted Their Stock at the Combine, and 2 Who Should Have Skipped It Altogether: 2023 Combine Winners and Losers

In many ways the NFL combine marks the unofficial start to the 2023 offseason. Although best balls drafts are in full swing, it’s not until the annual underwear olympics that we get new data on soon-to-be NFL players. In a lot of cases this new data just confirms what we already expected. But occasionally there are some surprises — both positive and negative. Those surprises…...

Cooper Kupp and David Johnson Were Once Small School Stars – 4 FCS Players to Watch in 2023

It’s rare for a player who didn’t go to a Power-Five school — let alone an FBS school — to make it big in the NFL. Yet occasionally, players from the FCS and lower divisions do hit in big ways. Christian Watson (North Dakota State) is the most recent example, but players like Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington), David Johnson (Northern Iowa), Tarik Cohen (North Carolina…...

When Wide Receiver Isn’t an Option: How to Navigate the Middle Rounds of a Superflex Draft

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. The FFPC is running two “Never-Too-Early” Best Ball Tournaments. Shawn Siegele and I are currently taking part in a draft for the Superflex version. Superflex drafts add several strategic wrinkles. While standard 1-quarterback best ball is far from solved, there are a few dominant strategies that most players are…...

A Superflex Best Ball Tournament Is the Perfect Format for Contrarian Strategies, But How Crazy Can You Get?

With the 2022 season officially over, 2023 best ball season is now back in full force. Underdog’s Big Board Tournament includes upcoming 2023 rookies and pays out $200,000 to first place. Their Little Board follows the same basic structure but costs less to enter, has fewer entrants, and pays out $10,000 to first. If you’re new to Underdog and want to get in on the…...

Is Isaiah Hodgins the Real Deal? 1 Big Thing from Wild Card Weekend

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. The New York Giants upset Minnesota on Sunday in part because of the heroics of Isaiah Hodgins. So far only two receivers scored more fantasy points in the playoffs’ opening round. Among players with more…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts for Running Backs? The Wrong Read, No. 75

In the 75th installment of The Wrong Read, Blair Andrews takes a deep dive into the metrics that best help us find Year 2 running back breakouts. Does efficiency make a difference? Can we beat draft position? Are we looking for different profiles from late picks compared to early picks? Last week I explored which Year 1 metrics help us predict Year 2 wide receiver…...

Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts? – The Wrong Read, No. 74

Earlier this week I explored George Pickens’ chances for a Year 2 breakout. While he’s got a lot going in his favor, there are some red flags. But it does raise the question of which metrics actually matter for predicting Year 2 breakouts. Which red flags should we actually be concerned about? Which metrics are so important that they drown out any red flags? How…...

Is George Pickens In Line for a Year 2 Breakout? 1 Big Thing from Week 16

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. George Pickens led all Steelers in PPR points in Week 16. That sounds pretty good, but he had only 16.7 points. He’s only surpassed that number twice this season. Despite making a few amazing catches,…...

How to Leverage the RotoViz Tools to Dominate DFS: Top Stacks for Small-Field DraftKings Tournaments

Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools and signature metrics such as expected points and game-level similarity projections to find underutilized but high-upside stacks for the Christmas Eve slate on DraftKings. I’m filling in for Michael Hitchcock this week. If you’ve been reading Michael’s work this season, you know that he’s been on fire in small-field DraftKings tournaments. And that’s no fluke. Michael strategically picks his…...

Trevor Lawrence Is the Next Breakout Quarterback Star: 1 Big Thing from Week 15

In 1 Big Thing, Blair Andrews uses the RotoViz tools to take a deep dive into an interesting, unique, and potentially actionable development from the last week of fantasy football. Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, but failed to live up to the hype, as he struggled with passing efficiency throughout his rookie season. He had only four QB1 weeks in…...

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