Patrick Kerrane

Dynasty writer and High Stakes player. Finished 6th of 696 dynasty teams in DFWC 2018; 34th in DFWC 2017. Producer of the Fantasyland Podcast. Co-host of 4for4's 'Ship Chasing podcast.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster of 10 players (1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D; Flex can be RB, WR…...

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a review of McLaurin’s fantasy performance, prospect profile, and finally, how to approach his dynasty value…....

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market share of the passing offense — ranks just 24th among WRs. This highlights two red…...

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in startups. By the end of the summer Montgomery was a staple of the dynasty top…...

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted players in dynasty are on the table. Today I want to revisit Cook, because the…...

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while Cook is undoubtedly a special talent, he’s one of the easiest sells in fantasy at…...

Your Dynasty Gameplan for the NFL’s Leading WRs: Sammy Watkins and John Ross

Every year I try and remind myself that the NFL season is a chaotic swirl of colors, injuries and the unbelievable. And then I try to predict it anyway. But then Sammy Watkins and John Ross combine for over 171 points in the first two weeks of the season. And chaos swirls on. Let’s try and make sense of the madness for your dynasty teams…...

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.[1]This is largely applicable to redraft as well, although my final recommendations will have a dynasty focus. As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for 14 of the Most Important Players In Dynasty – Why You Need Even More Tyler Boyd

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

What If We’re Right? 1 Safe Hold Becomes a Buy Low

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 4 Holds Move to Sells and 1 Becomes a Buy

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 2 Strong Sells are Now Holds

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

5 Dynasty Trade Targets You Need to Acquire Now

Late August is peak re-draft season, but it’s also an underrated time for dynasty. With everyone binging fantasy news and projections, and therefore fully engaged, it can be a great time to work out a trade. Below are five players who are perfect targets at the present moment. D.J. Moore Right after the NFL draft I traded Phillip Lindsay and the 1.12 for Moore. Since…...

A Deep Sleeper is Waking Once Again in Tennessee

Two years ago RotoViz was very excited about a rookie RB out of Boise State, and we had very good reason to be. In fact, he finished second overall in the RB Prospect Lab in a truly loaded class, besting Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Marlon Mack, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara.((Side note: we should probably be talking…...

Is Christian McCaffrey at Risk of Becoming 2010 Ray Rice?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

Is Saquon Barkley at Risk of Becoming 2009 Matt Forte?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

What If We’re Right? Part 5: Strong Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

What If We’re Right? Part 4: Red Flag Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster of 10 players (1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D; Flex can be RB, WR…...

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a review of McLaurin’s fantasy performance, prospect profile, and finally, how to approach his dynasty value…....

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market share of the passing offense — ranks just 24th among WRs. This highlights two red…...

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in startups. By the end of the summer Montgomery was a staple of the dynasty top…...

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted players in dynasty are on the table. Today I want to revisit Cook, because the…...

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while Cook is undoubtedly a special talent, he’s one of the easiest sells in fantasy at…...

Your Dynasty Gameplan for the NFL’s Leading WRs: Sammy Watkins and John Ross

Every year I try and remind myself that the NFL season is a chaotic swirl of colors, injuries and the unbelievable. And then I try to predict it anyway. But then Sammy Watkins and John Ross combine for over 171 points in the first two weeks of the season. And chaos swirls on. Let’s try and make sense of the madness for your dynasty teams…...

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.[1]This is largely applicable to redraft as well, although my final recommendations will have a dynasty focus. As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for 14 of the Most Important Players In Dynasty – Why You Need Even More Tyler Boyd

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

What If We’re Right? 1 Safe Hold Becomes a Buy Low

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 4 Holds Move to Sells and 1 Becomes a Buy

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 2 Strong Sells are Now Holds

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

5 Dynasty Trade Targets You Need to Acquire Now

Late August is peak re-draft season, but it’s also an underrated time for dynasty. With everyone binging fantasy news and projections, and therefore fully engaged, it can be a great time to work out a trade. Below are five players who are perfect targets at the present moment. D.J. Moore Right after the NFL draft I traded Phillip Lindsay and the 1.12 for Moore. Since…...

A Deep Sleeper is Waking Once Again in Tennessee

Two years ago RotoViz was very excited about a rookie RB out of Boise State, and we had very good reason to be. In fact, he finished second overall in the RB Prospect Lab in a truly loaded class, besting Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Marlon Mack, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara.((Side note: we should probably be talking…...

Is Christian McCaffrey at Risk of Becoming 2010 Ray Rice?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

Is Saquon Barkley at Risk of Becoming 2009 Matt Forte?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

What If We’re Right? Part 5: Strong Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

What If We’re Right? Part 4: Red Flag Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster of 10 players (1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D; Flex can be RB, WR…...

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a review of McLaurin’s fantasy performance, prospect profile, and finally, how to approach his dynasty value…....

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market share of the passing offense — ranks just 24th among WRs. This highlights two red…...

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in startups. By the end of the summer Montgomery was a staple of the dynasty top…...

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted players in dynasty are on the table. Today I want to revisit Cook, because the…...

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while Cook is undoubtedly a special talent, he’s one of the easiest sells in fantasy at…...

Your Dynasty Gameplan for the NFL’s Leading WRs: Sammy Watkins and John Ross

Every year I try and remind myself that the NFL season is a chaotic swirl of colors, injuries and the unbelievable. And then I try to predict it anyway. But then Sammy Watkins and John Ross combine for over 171 points in the first two weeks of the season. And chaos swirls on. Let’s try and make sense of the madness for your dynasty teams…...

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.[1]This is largely applicable to redraft as well, although my final recommendations will have a dynasty focus. As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for 14 of the Most Important Players In Dynasty – Why You Need Even More Tyler Boyd

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR…...

What If We’re Right? 1 Safe Hold Becomes a Buy Low

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 4 Holds Move to Sells and 1 Becomes a Buy

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

What If We’re Right? 2 Strong Sells are Now Holds

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells…...

5 Dynasty Trade Targets You Need to Acquire Now

Late August is peak re-draft season, but it’s also an underrated time for dynasty. With everyone binging fantasy news and projections, and therefore fully engaged, it can be a great time to work out a trade. Below are five players who are perfect targets at the present moment. D.J. Moore Right after the NFL draft I traded Phillip Lindsay and the 1.12 for Moore. Since…...

A Deep Sleeper is Waking Once Again in Tennessee

Two years ago RotoViz was very excited about a rookie RB out of Boise State, and we had very good reason to be. In fact, he finished second overall in the RB Prospect Lab in a truly loaded class, besting Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Marlon Mack, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara.((Side note: we should probably be talking…...

Is Christian McCaffrey at Risk of Becoming 2010 Ray Rice?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

Is Saquon Barkley at Risk of Becoming 2009 Matt Forte?

The article below is part of a series exploring downside possibilities for the top players in dynasty. This series is designed to be a thought experiment about what might go wrong for the top players in dynasty, with the goal of rounding out our expectations and better preparing us for the season to come. We’ll do this by looking at a player who was being…...

What If We’re Right? Part 5: Strong Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

What If We’re Right? Part 4: Red Flag Buys at WR

This article is part of a series on dynasty WRs looking at the RotoViz redraft rankings and asking “what if we’re right?”[1]I’m using the royal we here since I don’t actually contribute to our rankings. Many thanks to our redraft rankers: Blair Andrews, Curtis Patrick, Dave Caban, Hasan Rahim, Monty Phan and Shawn Siegele. After all, our rankings are trying to determine the most likely outcome…...

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