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I’ve been looking at passing-game arbitrage opportunities lately, and among other things I found that Joe Flacco’s ADP looks extremely overvalued relative to his receivers’.[1]Wide receivers and tight ends I listed a few caveats in the analysis, the two most significant being that the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs does not account for QB rushing production, or passing production to running backs. Rather than just leave…...

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Recently I wrote a piece on the relationship between passing-game ADPs, specifically comparing a quarterback’s ADP versus that of his collective wide receivers and tight ends. I highlighted a few potential arbitrage opportunities, and I concluded that Joe Flacco should be avoided based on the fact that he was being drafted too high in comparison to his receivers, none of whom are going in the first 100 picks…. Membership Required...

  The 2015 NFL Draft could be to running backs what 2014 was to wide receivers. You won’t necessarily need to be the best back in this loaded class to make an immediate impact. Jay Ajayi may be the Mike Evans to Todd Gurley’s Odell Beckham, or he might be the Sammy Watkins to Melvin Gordon’s . . . well, Gordon is (not) going to…...

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RotoDoc holds a Ph.D. in mathematics and tackles sports data to give you a competitive edge in your fantasy games. If you haven’t noticed by now, I like creating projections to predict fantasy football performance. Whether it be daily fantasy projections, early-season positional projections (as this series is), or any other kind of projections, I think the most value you get out of projections is finding…...

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I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the benefit of de-emphasizing player-specific analysis that is largely baked into ADP, and instead focusing on relationships between players’ prices to identify historically favorable risk/reward opportunities. I’ve already looked at how prediction markets can help us find find undervalued rookies and what usage tendencies can tell us about the value of running backs in 2015. This arbitrage analysis was sparked…...

In the soon to be published RotoViz Pre-Draft Rookie Mock I took Kevin White with the third overall pick, as the second wide receiver off the board. As you’ll soon see in the RotoViz Rookie Composite WR Rankings however, I have Kevin White ranked third… and Devante Parker ranked second.  So what gives?… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership...

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