In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that.
First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and RB2 in backfields where there is an ADP gap of 98.5 or more. Those in backfields with a smaller gap between the RB1 and RB2 are referred to as S1 and S2, respectively.
Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs have produced average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers. Today, we’ll focus on small gap RBs who might provide an edge in our fantasy drafts. Although early, we’ll use the FFPC Redraft ADP and identify small-gap running backs.
The ADP market has become more efficient, presenting opportunities to find value at running backs later. Often, we’ll discover team backfields with uncertainties, suggesting the market is torn on the talent or opportunity. Let’s look at three small gap backfields to determine which ones to target, which includes three rookies.
The Cowboys’ Small Gap Backfield
Javonte Williams, 106.4 ADP, RB38
Williams joins the Cowboys after posting 11.2 EP/G (No. 32) in 2024 with the Broncos. He had a career high in targets (70) in 2024, but he averaged the lowest EP/G in his career, mainly due to an overall decline in volume. Williams continued to struggle with efficiency, averaging -1.7 FPOE/G (No. 140).
Williams once sported a 22% evasion rate, breaking through tackles 17.2% of the time as a rookie in 2021. Last season he saw his evasion rate fall to a career-low (7%). He broke tackles on 5.8% of his attempts and forced a 1% missed tackle rate. That isn’t very good. It translated into subpar after-carry yardage.
Among rushers with 100 attempts, Williams ranked third worst in evasion rate. Only Kareem Hunt (6%) and Nick Chubb (5%) had worse numbers.
Jaydon Blue, 116.2 ADP, RB45
Blue peaked in his final season at Texas after being third on the team in carries in 2023 behind Jonathon Brooks and C.J. Baxter. Texas had a loaded room of running backs in Blue’s freshman season behind Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, and Brooks. Even in Blue’s peak final collegiate season, he played alongside Tre Wisner, who led the team in carries (226) and receptions (44) in his sophomore season.
That explains why Blue’s top comparisons are several unnamed players, in addition to Nyheim Hines, Tony Pollard, and Chris Thompson. Hines and Thompson remained third-down backs with a receiving profile, and Pollard didn’t break out until Year 4 because he played with Ezekiel Elliott.
Blue garnered a respectable 9% receiving yardage market share in his final season, aligning with how Hines and Thompson were deployed. However, Blue flashed his speed, with a 4.38 40-yard dash, translating to a 78th-percentile Speed Score. The Cowboys need explosiveness at the running back position after ranking 26th in explosive rush rate (9.8%). That indicates the Cowboys generated 9.8% of their total rushing yardage on plays of 10 or more.
Early 2025 Outlook
Williams hasn’t looked like the running back of old, with his ability to break and miss tackles. Both Williams and Blue have similar ADPs, indicating the market is torn on them. Expect Williams and Blue to share the workload, especially since Blue never took over a backfield in college, though his competition was part of the problem.
Blue should provide the explosiveness the Cowboys’ backfield needs. However, one might question how Blue performs as a pass blocker, given his size. That’s notable because we expect Blue to chip in the receiving game. Blue falls into the bucket of a big hit, small loss type pick, while Williams’ path to breakout potential is somewhat more difficult. Target Blue at his cost over Williams at his.
