Analysis

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

How to Win the FFPC Best Ball Tournament, Part 2

I’ve written a lot about best ball and structure this summer. I thoroughly examined how the field built teams in Underdog’s BBMII and then how to exploit those tendencies using Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile. What’s strange is that I have written nothing about an overall approach to attacking the tournament I actually won last year in the FFPC Best Ball Tournament. Seems like…...

Dynasty Trade Diary No. 4 – When to Trade Strength for Strength

In Dynasty Trade Diary No. 4, Curtis Patrick shares why he traded away Matthew Stafford for Austin Ekeler in a Superflex Dynasty League. Dynasty Trade Diary No. 4 – When to Trade Strength for Strength Entry No. 4 Today’s entry covers a roster-reshaping trade I made to transform a low-end playoff squad into a clear contender. League: Black Crown Dynasty League Format: 1QB, TE Premium…...

Deshaun Watson Suspension: How to Play it

Deshaun Watson is accused of sexually assaulting 24 women. Many of the details are disgusting. It feels odd to be writing about him purely through the lens of fantasy football in the face of such allegations. However, we are playing a game of numbers based on NFL outcomes with money on the line. Therefore, a thorough understanding of how he impacts the fantasy landscape is…...

The Fantasy Football Growth Mindset: Improve Quickly With a Strict “Do Not Draft” List

In The Fantasy Football Growth Mindset, Blair Andrews highlights some strategic principles and tactical motifs you can use to quickly improve as a fantasy football player. First, a controversial topic: the “Do Not Draft” list. The fastest way to improve at fantasy football is to use a strict “Do Not Draft” list. Even if you disagree with the implicit premise of that last sentence —…...

To Hero or to Zero? This Keeper Decision Will Help You Choose in 2022

Happy draft season, RotoViz crew. Whether you’ve been hammering best ball drafts all summer, or are just starting to get back in the swing, the most fun part of the year is right around the corner. As we enter prime draft season, I thought I’d share a difficult keeper decision in my most important league (a home league filled with guys I’ve known my entire…...

The Tight Ends Poised to Smash in the FFPC and Beyond

Your tight end strategy is one of the defining pillars of a draft. It is arguably the most important decision you will ever make (in fantasy football). Like quarterback, it is also often one of the most overlooked elements of roster construction. A key part of this decision is whether or not to use an early pick on a tight end. The factors that drive…...

Using the Range of Outcomes and Projection Machine to Crush Your TE Selections

Your tight end strategy is one of the defining pillars of a draft. It is arguably the most important decision you will ever make (in fantasy football). Like quarterback, it is also often one of the most overlooked elements of roster construction. A key part of this decision is whether or not to use an early pick on a tight end. The factors that drive…...

Dynasty Trade Diary No. 3 – Adding WR2 Firepower

In Dynasty Trade Diary No. 3, Curtis Patrick reviews his recent move to inject upside potential in a dynasty roster lacking firepower at WR2. Dynasty Trade Diary No. 3 – Adding WR2 Firepower Entry No. 3 Today’s entry centers around the search for a high-upside WR2 for one of my squads that’s won two league championships. League: FFPC Dynasty $250 #97 (Startup in 2019) Format:…...

The Key to Predicting Future Pass Rates Is Hiding in Plain Sight: How to Use The NFL Pace App to Find High-Powered Stacks

A team’s pass rate is one of the most important variables in deciding how many fantasy points each player will score. The first order impact is on aggregate rushing attempt and target volume, but it’s also a huge determinant in the overall production of an offense. Pass attempts are more efficient than rush attempts, earning more yards (7.1 versus 4.3) and scoring more touchdowns (4.4%…...

Why Rondale Moore Will Emerge as a Star in 2022

Second-year wide receivers have long been one of the cornerstones of winning in fantasy football. However, recent ADPs have made it more challenging to draft these breakouts, particularly on Underdog. This means that we need to pay particular attention when these players carry discounts. Rondale Moore goes at the end of the 10th round on Underdog and the 12th on FFPC. That he plays with Kyler Murray…...

Is Late-Round QB Dead? Using the RotoViz Tools to Win the Quarterback Position

The quarterback position has seen some of the biggest strategic shifts. QBs score easily the most points, so in earlier years, the top quarterbacks went incredibly early. In 2015, two quarterbacks were being drafted earlier than Josh Allen’s current ADP. 2015 QB ADPs, Fanball Yet this ADP was woefully inefficient. Cam Newton entering his fifth season at the peak of his powers should not have…...

Will Rashaad Penny Earn a Bell Cow Role? Actionable Takeaways From Early July News

Early July is usually a dead period for NFL news, as most free agents have signed, and training camp hasn’t started yet. But a few pieces of recent news have fantasy implications. Darrell Henderson and Kyren Williams Per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrique (one of the best beat reporters in the league): My sense is that the Rams’ hope for Williams is that he eventually takes…...

Can the Range of Outcomes Tool Find 3 Ways to Save Big on Ezekiel Elliott?

Shawn Siegele begins the 2022 Discount Series. Is there an easy way to draft Ezekiel Elliott’s upside without having to spring for his increasing price? Over the past several years, the Discount Series has led us to drafting league-winning players like Diontae Johnson, D’Andre Swift, Chris Godwin, and Devin Singletary. Locating those mispriced players goes a long way to winning leagues and taking down tournaments,…...

Scott Fish Bowl: RotoViz’s Guide To #SFB12 Scoring And Strategy

The 2022 Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB12) kicks off today! The scoring format is mainly unchanged from prior Fish Bowls, with the largest changes impacting the kicker and quarterback positions. Matt Spencer ran several simulations and noted that only 42 points separate draft positions in average projected points, underscoring the balance in scoring for this format. Before I jump into the changes, here’s a quick primer…...

Does the Running Back Dead Zone Still Exist? Comparing Underdog and FFPC

The running back dead zone has entered the public consciousness in a big way. An understanding of how to approach the draft once all the top running backs are off the board and exciting wide receivers are still available has become much more widespread. With this greater understanding comes a shift in ADPs. The Win The Flex tool is uniquely well placed to objectively analyze…...

Mahomes Finally Gets the Offensive Line He Deserves: Elite Quarterbacks and Their Offensive Line Continuity in 2022

Thomas Emerick looks at offensive line continuity as a key feature of efficient NFL offenses. Who stands to benefit from having the most returning offensive line starters? One of the overlooked keys to efficient offensive play in the NFL is the offensive line, and one of the overlooked aspects of offensive line evaluation is overall unit cohesion. How many offensive line starters a team returns…...

Mind the Gap: 3 Small-Gap Backfields to Mine for Fantasy Value

Last time, we looked at three big-gap backfields with buying opportunities. We know from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small-gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that, that the ADP gap between a team’s RB1 and their RB2 has significant implications for how we should expect them to perform. In those previous articles and in this…...

Why the Third Receiver Slot Is So Important on Underdog: Lessons from the Win The Flex App

On Underdog, it is no secret that the half-PPR scoring favors running backs more than the wide receivers. And yet, wide receivers go earlier on Underdog than in any other format. It would be tempting to surmise that running backs are dramatically undervalued. In fact, the projections based on the Win The Flex app suggest that running backs will outscore the next available wide receiver…...

Has the Second-Year Receiver Advantage Been Squeezed Out of Existence?

RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes…...

How to Finish a Hyperfragile Draft Strong

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

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