Analysis

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

How to Finish a Hyperfragile Draft Strong

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

Are Underdog Players Drafting Enough Running Backs?

The RotoViz suite of Roster Construction Explorer tools are awesome. Because we have both tournament data and a long history of data, we are able to rigorously test out roster construction ideas for historical success. I’ve written previously about how to use these tools to build unique and utterly dominant Zero RB, Anchor RB, and Hyperfragile teams. When it comes to the Underdog BBM III…...

Applying Optimal Bestball Principles to a Hyperfragile Draft

I recently wrote about Hyperfragile drafts in Bestball Mania and how to draft them optimally. It can be an exciting way to draft, but it is usually not implemented very well and the results reflect it. RB3 BEFORE ROUND 5, FIVE OR FEWER RBS Fortunately, the errors are easy to correct and result in a contrarian monster. Doing this research made me extremely excited about…...

Fixing Hyperfragile: Dominating with a Contrarian Approach

Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...

An Unusual Anchor RB Approach With Even More Upside

Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...

Don’t Overthink Uniqueness in a Zero RB Build

Best Ball Mania III is a 451,600-entry tournament with a 470-team Week 17 final. Because of this, finding ways to build high-upside teams that are meaningfully different from the field is of the utmost importance. Accounting for the fact that a large percentage of the prize pool is dedicated to the top few places (38% is for the top-five finishers) is a core facet of…...

Dynasty Trade Diary No. 2 – How to Trade Up In Your Rookie Draft

In Dynasty Trade Diary No. 2, Curtis Patrick reviews his recent trade of D.J. Moore as he prepares for the 2022 FFPC Dynasty Rookie Drafts. Dynasty Trade Diary – How to Trade Up in Your Rookie Draft Entry No. 2 League: FFPC Dynasty $250 #106 (Startup in 2019) Format: 1QB, TE Premium scoring Lineups: Start 10 (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2…...

Dynasty Rankings & Tiers Update – How I’m Valuing the 5 Rookie Superstars

Curtis Patrick plugs the superstar rookies into his dynasty rankings and tiers. Dynasty Rankings & Tiers Update – How I’m Valuing the 5 Rookie Superstars Our team has been slaying rookie content this week and the onslaught will continue until we’ve got every noteworthy player updated with draft capital and landing spot analysis. Before you check out where I’ve slotted the five superstar rookies in…...

Dynasty Trade Diary – I Traded Justin Herbert and Rebuilt a Roster

In Dynasty Trade Diary, Curtis Patrick reveals his recent dynasty trades and shares the thought process behind offering or accepting the deals. Dynasty Trade Diary – I Traded Justin Herbert and Rebuilt a Roster Entry No. 1 League: The Bourgeoisie Dynasty League (Scott Barrett Charity Invitational) Format: Superflex, TE Premium scoring Lineups: Start 10 (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3…...

What Justin Jefferson and Chris Godwin Taught Me About Fantasy Football: Buy Low Report Year-End Review

Like all NFL seasons, 2021 was an interesting year. As a fantasy football experience, the most important development was the proliferation of very detailed analysis regarding player usage across all positions. This evolution is welcomed as it pushes us all towards a greater understanding of what happens every week. On the other hand, it makes life more difficult. As the information becomes more widespread, the…...

Reviewing the RotoViz Staff Bold Predictions for the 2021 NFL Fantasy Football Season

In September, the RotoViz staff came together to give our bold predictions for the 2021 NFL Fantasy Football Season. These bold predictions were long-shot bets that RotoViz forecast to have a higher probability of occurring than the public anticipated. Bold Prediction 1: Michael Dubner – Tee Higgins is a WR1 Higgins was the overall PPR WR18 with 221.1 PPR. But… On a points per game…...

NFL Playoff Challenge – Quarterbacks Versus the Field

Curtis Patrick uses the RotoViz Game Splits App and NFL Stat Explorer to create a quarterback reference tool for 2021 NFL Playoff Challenge Contests. NFL Playoff Challenge – Quarterbacks Versus the Field There are a number of NFL Playoff Challenge contests to choose from and I hope you’re playing in at least one of them this year. It’s a great way to put a cap…...

Should You Handcuff Your Running Backs? Backfield Stacks and Their Effects on Win Rates

Matt Spencer uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to determine whether handcuffing your RBs is a good strategy. Does it improve your floor or ceiling outcomes? Or is it simply a wasted roster spot? Football is still a week away and we’ve already lost J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne Jr., along with another 33 running backs listed on the injury report. If…...

The 2021 RotoViz Auction Draft Strategy Guide

Auction drafts are easy to “win” but even easier to “lose.” Dave Caban overviews the preparation, thought processes, and in-auction strategies needed to ensure that you’re ready for the intensity and challenges auctions will throw at you and are poised to leave your draft with a contender. Heading into the 2020 season, I compiled a list of auction-related articles that I had written over the…...

Supercharged Start: Teams to Target and Fade in the First Month

When analyzing strength of schedule, I prefer to focus on the first four weeks of the season. Vegas win totals and the previous year’s correlation are strongest early on, as injuries and variance often play an increasing role as the season continues. My goal is to target teams and players with easy starts (and fade those with tough starts), increasing their value as October arrives…...

Darrell Henderson’s Value Jumps to a Top-24 RB in the Wake of the Cam Akers Injury

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, Shawn Siegele and I drafted a team together in one of the new RotoViz TriFlex FFPC dynasty leagues that had just launched. After drafting our first running back, Chuba Hubbard, in the 10th round, and our second RB, Tony Pollard, in the 12th, we waited until the 15th round to draft our third RB: Darrell Henderson. You probably…...

Offensive Line Continuity Shake-Ups Entering NFL Training Camp

The offensive line continuity prospects of several NFL teams will enter the kiln come training camp. Fortunately, enough is in place to provide an outlook on 2021 fantasy football impact by tracing from the trenches to offensive production over the years. I’ll concede and even emphasize that OL continuity isn’t a first-order factor. However, you will see that the best and most consistent offenses usually…...

Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Why Fantasy Football Doesn’t Have to Be That Hard: An Introduction to Some New (and Old) Advanced Wide Receiver Metrics

Blair Andrews examines some new advanced metrics in a massive correlation matrix. Should we still be focusing on the same statistics when predicting wide receiver performance? At RotoViz, we always aim to have the most advanced and predictive fantasy metrics in the industry. This means not only having access to many different metrics but also teasing out which metrics give us actual signal, and which…...

Dynasty Trade Targets 2021 – A Potential Top-5 WR Valued Outside the Dynasty Top-85

In this edition of Dynasty Trade Targets 2021, Curtis Patrick reviews a prime-age, potential WR1 who’s being drafted in Round 8 of startups at WR28. I love writing dynasty trade target articles. I am constantly on the prowl for opportunities to improve my rosters, and I want you prowling around with me. Earlier this offseason, I revealed an RB who is being drafted like an RB4…...

Simulating Optimal Roster Construction With The Scott Fish Bowl

Last week I went through the process of transforming your projections to include expected first downs. Now that Dave Caban dropped the official RotoViz projections, we can explore the snake draft simulation tool I created. I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. One of Scott’s goals with this format is to create a really balanced…...

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