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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Can Jonathon Brooks or Another Rookie Running Back Resurrect This Exciting AFC Running Game? NFL Offseason Primer, Part 3

The 2024 fantasy football season is officially here! With RotoViz TriFlex leagues and the Never-Too-Early Best Ball Tournament in full swing over at the FFPC, along with the Big Board and Little Board tournaments both launching on Underdog, it is a great time to be alive. No matter what type of league we’re competing in, the exercise of researching each NFL team’s salary cap situation,…...

Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye (or Caleb Williams) – Which Rookie QB Will Have Big-Time Upside in this Ascending Offense? NFL Offseason Primer, Part 2

The 2024 fantasy football season is officially here! With RotoViz TriFlex leagues and the Never-Too-Early Best Ball Tournament in full swing over at the FFPC, along with The Big Board and Little Board tournaments both launching on Underdog, it is a great time to be alive. No matter what type of league we’re competing in, the exercise of researching each NFL team’s salary cap situation,…...

The Gauntlet Returns: How to Navigate Underdog’s Divisional Round ADP

Shawn Siegele explores the nuances of building Underdog playoff rosters now that we’re down to eight teams as we enter the Divisional Round. Wild Card weekend lived up to its branding and delivered in a way that regular season football generally did not in 2023. As Colm and I broke down on Overtime yesterday, the initial wave of playoff games followed our expected script but…...

Underdog Playoff Strategy – The Best Team You Can Draft Today and What to Watch For on Sunday

Shawn Siegele looks at some Saturday options for loading your Underdog playoff portfolio with the next big movers ahead of Week 16’s Sunday action. Our recommendation last week to load up on the Bills and Rams has paid big dividends for drafters. Buffalo’s pieces made a big jump in ADP, while L.A. is now up to a 72% chance to make the playoffs. The Rams…...

A Few Thoughts on Underdog Playoff Tactics and Why You Might Draft Your Best Team Today

Shawn Siegele breaks down the Underdog playoff format and gives his early take on the teams and players to target. When it comes to drafting, there’s no more enticing and addictive format than Underdog’s Gauntlet ($25), which also comes in Mitten pricing ($5). The playoff contests are six-team, 10-round best-ball drafts that start 1-QB, 1-RB, 2-WR/TE, 1 Flex, and employ Underdog’s half-ppr scoring. Our plan…...

The Best Drafters of 2023: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 14

Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season is in the books and that means most best ball tournaments, including Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4), are heading into the playoff rounds. It also means that many analysts and fantasy football personalities are sharing their BBM4 advance rates and favorite advancing teams on social media. I’ve written about advance rates in various contexts throughout this season,…...

Exploring Roster Construction Leverage: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 13

With only one week left in the Best Ball Mania IV regular season, we can start to analyze what the playoff field will look like. The playoff field is valuable to understand because it’s a weighted selection of the players, player combinations, and roster constructions that had the most success this season. However, when the playoffs start, we’ll see the dynamic flip. Zero running back…...

Pricing Upside in 2023: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 12

As the 2023 Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) regular season winds down I’m beginning to think about the lessons that we’ll learn from this season. It’s easy enough to look at the performance of various roster constructions and assume that 2024’s average draft position (ADP) will be influenced by those. We’ll likely see even more emphasis on “zero RB” and “hero RB” structures. Elite quarterbacks…...

The Final Rookie Breakouts: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 11

In the Week 7 edition of my Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) Advance Rate Review we pushed the NFL veterans aside to focus exclusively on the 2023 rookie class. This week we will do the same.  I wrote in Week 7 about how many rookies see their usage change at some point during the season. This year we’ve seen Dalton Kincaid, Demario Douglas, and Jahmyr…...

Hope for Robust RB: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 10

This week in my Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) advance rate review we’ll be revisiting our format from Week 6, looking at advance rates by roster construction. Back in Week 6, the story centered on the dominance of the zero running back construction. Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, Zach Moss, and Kyren Williams had defined the season to that point. Each of these players were producing…...

Texans Stacks Surge: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 9

Over the last few weeks we’ve taken some detours in the Underdog Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) advance rate review series. We’ve looked at advance rates by roster construction, rookies, and leverage points for the best ball playoffs. Today we’ll grab our wide lens and return to reviewing the entire landscape at the individual player level. Week 5 was the last time we had a…...

Where’s the Leverage?: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 8

One of the broadcasts this past Sunday mentioned that we are halfway through the NFL season. While that isn’t technically true (the end of Week 9 will mark the halfway point of the NFL regular season), it’s quite close. It struck me that we’ve been analyzing the season up to this point almost exclusively through the lens of preseason expectations. Preseason expectations inform the cost…...

Rookie Check In: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 7

One of the most popular talking points each NFL offseason is the disproportionate production of rookies. Many rookies start the season slow and finish strong as they get acclimated to the NFL game. The disproportionate production is easy to show in terms of raw points per game scored, but it’s more difficult to quantify their true value to a team. When you include price and…...

Zero RB is Defining the Season: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 6

This week in my Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) advance rate review we’ll be veering off the path we’ve carved thus far to take a look at roster constructions. Underdog released the entire field of teams in their flagship contest two weeks ago and it’s time to put that data to work. We’ll be looking at roster construction by position. Sorting by position helps us…...

Actual Advance Rates Have Arrived: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Review – Week 5

One of my econometrics professors in university used to repeat the same phrase in nearly every lecture: “All models are wrong but some are useful.” It’s a popular aphorism for a reason. I’ve published my Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) advance rate model each week this season, but as of recently that model has reached the end of its usefulness. Last week Underdog released the…...

The RB Dead Zone Lives On: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Model Review — Week 4

Let’s start with a thought experiment:  You go back in time and draft a Best Ball Mania IV (BBM4) team with all the knowledge you have now. Who do you select in each round? As someone who has been keeping up with my expected advance rate model, you may be tempted to simply select the player with the highest expected advance rate in each round…....

The Value of a Spike Week: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Model Review — Week 3

One of the more underappreciated ways that Underdog best ball is different from a normal redraft league is the “points chase” scoring. There are no weekly matchups and no W/L records, only points. Total points scored matters to an extent in redraft, but it’s typically relevant on the margins as a tie breaker or similar. This makes spike weeks less impactful in redraft. All of…...

Late-Round Stars Emerging: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Model Review — Week 2

Two weeks into the 2023 NFL season and we already have a few clear candidates for the best ball MVP. They show up in redraft leagues as waiver wire headliners and late-round dart throws, but how do these studs leave their mark in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV? (BBM4) In this week’s BBM4 advance rate model review, we’ll identify a few late round stars and…...

Tyreek Hill Steals the Show: Best Ball Mania IV Advance Rate Model Review – Week 1

If you’re anything like me, you opened up the Underdog app to check out your best ball portfolio less than a quarter into the early window of Week 1. I’ll admit it’s premature; the Underdog app often hasn’t even updated the scores, but I just have to know. We spend all summer drafting best ball teams and when the season arrives it can feel anticlimactic…....

Don’t Miss Out On 2023’s Crazy Rookie Wide Receiver Value Like You Missed Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson massively outperformed in fantasy a year ago, putting up more than 1,100 yards despite historically bad quarterback play. Now Michael Dubner reveals the rookie WR on the same path Wilson blazed a year ago.  With one week of drafting remaining in the FFPC Main Event and FantasyPros contests, and 4% of Best Ball Mania drafts remaining, I’m bringing you an urgent message not…...

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