We’ve examined six small gap backfields in two previous articles, including three with rookies adding to the uncertainty and the one team with three rushers inside the top 150 in ADP. In the past, we’ve looked at big-gap and small-gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that.

First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and RB2 in backfields where there is an ADP gap of 98.5 or more. Those in backfields with a smaller gap between the RB1 and RB2 are referred to as S1 and S2, respectively.

Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs have produced average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers. Today, we’ll focus on big-gap RBs who might provide an edge in our fantasy drafts. Although early, we’ll use the FFPC Redraft ADP and identify big-gap running backs.

The ADP market has become more efficient, presenting opportunities to find value at running backs later. One of the big gap backfields became murkier after the injury news, leading to two other later-round picks becoming relevant. There’s one more of these big gap backfields on an elite offense that posted record numbers last year. Let’s examine two teams with a big gap backfields to mine for value if we miss the earlier option.

Ravens’ Backfield

Derrick Henry, 16.3 ADP, RB7

Henry joined the Ravens and quieted the skeptics again after having the second-most rushing yards (1,921) and the most FPOE/G (6) in his career during the 2024 season. The Ravens were the fourth-most run-heavy team in 2024 during neutral game scripts. Among running backs with a 55% rush share or higher, Henry (5%) and Chubb (3%) were the only two running backs with a target share at 5% or below.

Henry was dominant while playing alongside Lamar Jackson, who boasted the third-highest team rush share (25%) behind Jayden Daniels (28%) and Jalen Hurts (27%) among quarterbacks. It’s probably hard to quantify, but Henry and Jackson, as dominant rushers, were difficult to defend. That’s especially notable because Henry boasted the 11th-highest evasion rate, mainly via his whopping 14.9% broken tackle rate (No. 7) among rushers with 50 attempts.

Henry faced the sixth-highest rate of stacked boxes, with 8 or more defenders. Meanwhile, Henry averaged the highest rate of rush yards over expected (RYOE/Att), ahead of Saquon Barkley among the running backs. That indicates Henry was quite unstoppable, as indicated by his fantasy production.

Henry averaged six fantasy points over expected per game in 2024. That’s ridiculous. He averaged the 11th-most FPOE/G in a season without a playing time filter since 2010. Achane, McCaffrey, and Kamara were the only running backs who saw an increase of 1.0 in FPOE/G in the following season.

Can Henry do it one more time in 2025?