Like any form of investment, we want to monitor the risers and fallers. That’s especially true with fantasy football, specifically wide receiver risers. In a previous article, we covered several Day 3 running backs rising in drafts, so it was logical to examine the receiver position.
Unsurprisingly, we covered mostly Year 1 or Year 2 players, with a veteran joining a team late into the off-season. Rookies and younger players tend to draw more attention in drafts, especially if there’s untapped upside. A player’s ADP can shift because of injuries, preseason news, or viral highlights on social media.
Should we target or fade these wide receiver risers at their new prices? Let’s examine why and their situation as they head into the 2025 season.
Keenan Allen’s Rocket Ship
FFPC ADP: 135.1 (+63.5), WR56
Do we remember the fat Keenan Allen narrative? No? Me neither. Allen posted five games with 20 fantasy points or more in 2024 (33.3%) in his 12th season. He matched D.J. Moore in target share (27%), yet sneakily had a better air yards per target (AY/T). Allen rocked a 9.2 AY/T compared to Moore at 7.5 in 2024, which aligned with Allen’s AY/T in recent seasons.
Allen ranked 22nd in EP/G, yet ranked 207th in FPOE/G. That suggests he should be valued as a WR2 at best, with WR3 as a reasonable outcome. That’s especially notable because Allen will play in a potentially better offensive environment in 2025.
Some might think Allen played with the Chargers in 2023 and ranked first in EP/G. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean we can project an elite usage for Allen in 2025. However, the Chargers had Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator, which means the offense may be more pass-heavy. That’s evident in the Chargers’ ranking third in pass attempts in 2023 under Moore.
Justin Herbert Provides an Upgraded Passer
Theoretically, Allen will play alongside a better passer in Justin Herbert. Herbert bested Caleb Williams in adjusted yards per attempt and completion rate over expected. However, the Chargers tend to lean more balanced on offense, especially in neutral game scripts. That’s clear from the Chargers being tied for ninth in neutral game script pass rate with a negative pass rate over expected.
Allen went from being unsigned to joining his former team. That somewhat depresses the value of Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. However, Ladd McConkey should be the top target earner. Quentin Johnston also suffered a concussion in the preseason, potentially opening up opportunities for Allen.
Summary
Allen’s ADP rose from the dead to a high-end offense as one of the biggest wide receiver risers. His recent ADP puts him near several sleepers, including Brandon Aiyuk, Rachaad White, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jerome Ford, and Marvin Mims Jr. Allen might be a more consistent option than all five, and he still may possess comparable upside. Allen could fit a team as a later-round receiver who could chaperone teams into the second half.
