NOTE: Our tools will be updated each week as soon as data from our stats provider is available. Generally, data from Sunday’s games will be available early Tuesday afternoon. For an immediate look at the games from the previous weekend, please check out our Monday Reviewtool which includes a collection of preliminary stats.
Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
This week, NFL fans were definitely grateful to have four premium matchups to tune into over the holiday. While none of the matchups featured an epic comeback in the closing minutes, each game offered an opportunity for some RotoViz favorites to usher a comeback, in one way or another. While all of our favorites definitely did not hit in the ways we would have liked, there were still some positive takeaways from each game. Let’s jump in and break down each of the four games we were gifted over the past two days.
Packers @ Lions
After Detroit was embarrassed by the Packers in Week 1, the Lions were given a chance to return the favor in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving. Detroit seemingly had everything working in their favor following a huge overtime win against the Giants on Sunday, in which Jahmyr Gibbs set a new season high with 55.4 PPR points. But the Packers had some reason for optimism of their own, as Josh Jacobs was set to return following a one-game absence.
While Jacobs and Gibbs both ended up dominating the touches in their respective backfields, the biggest headlines on each side in this one came via the passing attacks. For the Lions, the game got off to a bad start when Amon-Ra St. Brown left with an ankle injury in the first quarter, opening up for Jameson Williams to become Detroit’s WR1 the rest of the way. Four days after Williams put up a goose egg for fantasy managers against the Giants, he showed up huge on Thanksgiving by recording a 7-144-1 line on 10 targets.
Even though Williams paced all receivers in the game in catches and yards, the bigger story may have come from the Green Bay WR corps. In a performance that helped absolutely no one except Jordan Love owners, Dontayvion Wicks rose from the ashes to turn seven targets into a 6-94-2 stat line. But in a performance that was fantasy-relevant, Christian Watson kept up his streak of strong outings since returning from his 2024 ACL tear, scoring 18.3 PPR points on 4-80-1 while leading the Packers with 10 targets and adding one rush attempt for 3 yards.
In Shawn Siegele’s preview of the Thursday and Friday games in this week’s installment of The Banana Stand, he broke down why Watson was the best hope for fantasy managers to find a reliable Green Bay receiver in the short term:
Christian Watson led the team in routes, targets, and air yards again last week, and while he didn’t match his two-score performance against the Giants, he hauled in all five catchable passes. Watson hasn’t been doing much after the catch and doesn’t have the overall target volume to threaten WR2 territory very often, but his solid air-yards profile makes him the only fantasy viable option in Green Bay (until Jayden Reed is healthy).
While Wicks was the star of the show in Week 13, it is doubtful that anyone outside of the most desperate fantasy managers will have the cojones to slide him into lineups next week. Watson, on the other hand, should continue to be a worthwhile play for fantasy managers who are struggling to fill their WR3 or flex spots.
Even without St. Brown and with Love having his way with Detroit’s defense through the air, a 44-yard catch and run from Williams set up a field goal that had the Lions within one score late with all three timeouts remaining. Three plays into the next drive, and Love was able to hit Watson for 8 yards on a third and 5 with just under three minutes left. Following three more plays, the Lions were out of timeouts. With just under two minutes left, Wicks came up big with a 16-yard reception on fourth and 3 to ice the victory.
It is fair to say that the biggest names on the Lions and Packers didn’t make a ton of noise in this one. Still, it was nice to see Love get right by scoring 25.8 fantasy points, marking the first time since Week 8 and only the fourth time all season he has eclipsed 20.0 fantasy points.
Watson’s story continues to be one of the more pleasant surprises of the year, after it was fair to question whether he would even be able to suit up in 2025 after tearing his ACL in Week 18 of last season.
While the injury to St. Brown could not have come at a worse time for his team and fantasy owners, the overall prognosis has been relatively positive, with current estimates that he will miss only one or two games. While St. Brown is out, Williams should have every opportunity to prove that he can operate as a legitimate WR1 by continuing on his recent hot streak and making up for the donut in the box score from Week 12. He’ll get a chance to continue making his amends in a favorable matchup against the Cowboys in Week 14.
Chiefs @ Cowboys
Kansas City and Dallas authored two of Week 12’s biggest comebacks in matchups that were chock-full of playoff implications. While the Chiefs and Cowboys took a step in the right direction last week, both were still on the outside looking in at a playoff berth.
The Cowboys were down 21-0 to the Eagles with less than a minute left in the first half before ultimately pulling out a 24-21 victory on a 42-yard field goal as time expired. The win pulled Dallas to .500 with a record of 5-5-1, keeping their playoff hopes alive.
The Chiefs also found themselves behind the eight ball in a matchup against the Colts and needed overtime to come out on top. I detailed Kansas City’s late-game heroics in this week’s Monday Review:
Kansas City has been no stranger to adversity during their last three Super Bowl runs, but 2025 has easily been their most difficult season since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018. Heading into a pivotal matchup against the Colts, Andy Reid’s squad sat at 5-5 and on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Another loss would be devastating — yet not altogether unlikely — against an 8-2 Indianapolis team that was coming out of their bye and featured a well-rested Jonathan Taylor.
So far this season, Taylor has been building his own MVP case. But on Sunday, Kansas City made stopping him a priority, with his 8.6 PPR points representing his second-lowest output of the season.
Kansas City’s game plan to make Daniel Jones beat them ultimately worked out in their favor, but there were plenty of doubts along the way. The Chiefs trailed from the time the Colts scored their first TD seven minutes into the game until the final play of regulation, when a 25-yard field goal as time expired sent the game to overtime.
As long as Mahomes remains a Chief, it feels safe to say no other Kansas City player will sniff an MVP award. But on Sunday, Rashee Rice made a case as the most valuable player on the Chiefs’ offense, delivering big play after big play to help keep the team in the game late. On the final drive of regulation, it was a 47-yard catch and run from Rice that really got the offense moving and a 19-yard reception on 4th and 3 that ultimately kept the Chiefs from falling to 5-6.
After forcing Indianapolis into a three-and-out to start overtime, momentum was firmly on Kansas City’s side. Still, the game-winning drive didn’t come easy, as Xavier Worthy made his first significant play of the game on a 31-yard deep shot on 3rd and 7 to reach the outer rim of field goal territory. Two plays later, Rice’s YAC abilities effectively sealed the win when he took a short pass 21 yards to Indianapolis’ 24-yard line. Four plays later and the Colts were heading back to Indianapolis with a record of 8-3, while Kansas City’s playoff hopes were alive and well.
The Chiefs have been able to overcome some tight games in recent years by leaning on a defense that is often overlooked due to the ever-present shadow of Mahomes. This year, Kansas City’s defense is continuing to do their part, ranking fourth in scoring and sixth in total defense (11th against the pass and sixth against the run). And in a development that may come as somewhat of a shock, the offense has actually been among the league’s best as well, clocking in at ninth in scoring and fifth in yards, largely on the back of the league’s second-ranked passing attack.
Following two QB2 performances in a row, Mahomes was able to get back on track against the Colts. And things had the chance to get increasingly better against the Cowboys, as Blair Andrews pointed out in his Thanksgiving edition of The Wrong Read:
Patrick Mahomes (KC @ DAL)
No. 2 floor projection on the slate (16.4).
KC pass offense: No. 2 in EPA per pass (0.22), No. 1 in time to pressure allowed (3.12).
DAL pass defense: No. 32 in average separation allowed (4.1), No. 26 in time to throw allowed (2.95).
Dallas allows the most separation in the league — receivers are getting 4.1 yards of cushion on average. This is a strong spot for Mahomes, whose protection has given him the most time in the pocket of any QB in the league over the last six weeks. The floor here is solid. However, Dallas’s pass rush can still generate pressure, and their defenders tackle relatively well, which both put a cap on the Chiefs’ explosive plays.
On Thursday, Rice continued on his hot streak by kicking off the scoring with a 27-yard catch and run following a Dak Prescott interception on Dallas’ third offensive play of the game. From there, it was on, as the teams traded haymakers in a game that never ventured outside of a single-score point differential for longer than two minutes of game time. In the end, the Cowboys were able to salt away the clock while up seven points over the final three and a half minutes of the fourth quarter. In a similar fashion to the Packers, Dallas relied on their superstar WRs to come through with big catches — and draw even bigger pass interference calls — when it mattered most.
Unlike the matchup between the Lions and Packers, the names on the marquee in Dallas heading into the game were the stars of the show. CeeDee Lamb (7-112-1 on nine targets) and George Pickens (6-88-0 on 13 targets) continue to all but cement themselves as the best receiver duo in the league. Meanwhile, Rice’s stat lines (8-92-2 on 12 targets) continue to beg the question of whether or not he may have been able to keep pace with Jaxon Smith-Njigba had he not been suspended to start the year. And with the big numbers put up by the receivers, we all know that Mahomes (32.1 fantasy points) and Prescott (24.8) both ate as well.
After starting off the season 3-5-1, the Cowboys have won three in a row and are in the midst of a playoff push. As it just so happens, they sit a half of a game behind their Week 14 opponent, the Lions, in ninth place in the NFC playoff picture. After that, the Cowboys only have one more game against a .500 opponent, as they play the Vikings (4-7), Chargers (7-4), Commanders (3-8), and Giants (2-10) over the final four weeks of the season.
Although Kansas City fell to .500 following their loss on Thanksgiving, they currently match the Cowboys by coming in at ninth in the AFC conference standings. Known for having a flair for the dramatic, I refuse to count out Mahomes and the Chiefs until the final bell sounds. While games against the Texans, Chargers, and Broncos look tough on paper, none seem altogether unwinnable. And with two gimme matchups against the Titans and Raiders along the way — with a trip to Las Vegas in Week 18 potentially being the last roadblock to a playoff berth — I would not be so quick to dismiss Kansas City, even in a down year.
Bengals @ Ravens
On a Thanksgiving Day slate that was filled with exciting matchups, perhaps no story was bigger than the return of Joe Burrow following a 10-week layoff due to a turf toe injury. On the other sideline, Lamar Jackson has been back the past four weeks following an early-season hamstring injury. But he hasn’t really been back back.
After the Ravens and Bengals gave us two of 2024’s most memorable games, their first matchup of 2025 in prime time on Thanksgiving had all the makings of a bounce-back game for all parties involved. Unfortunately, practically none of the players were able to live up to sky-high expectations set by last year’s showdowns.
Cincinnati fared better than the Ravens almost universally, evidenced most notably by them pulling out the win. Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown both went over 100 scrimmage yards, and Burrow looked solid on his way to 21.9 fantasy points. But the rest of the offense lacked a spark without Tee Higgins in the lineup, circumstances that generally lent themselves to big games for Mike Gesicki last season, as Neil Dutton noted in this week’s TE Streamers article:
Gesicki does not have a great matchup on paper this week. The Ravens have not allowed a TE to clear 9.9 PPR points in any of their last five games. But Tee Higgins suffered a concussion on Sunday and will miss this game. Going back to last season, Gesicki ate whenever Higgins missed time. And that trend, allied to the return of Joe Burrow to the Bengals offense, makes Gesicki a player to consider if you are hurting at TE this week.
Sadly, Gesicki’s trend of strong performances with Higgins out of the lineup was squashed, as Mitchell Tinsley earned nine targets but was only able to turn them into two receptions for 22 yards.
For as underwhelming as things were for Cincinnati in this one, life on the Baltimore sideline was considerably worse. Turnovers were the theme of the night for the Ravens, as they lost four fumbles and an interception over the course of the game. Plenty of fans and analysts alike had this game circled as the perfect chance for Jackson to get right after a month-long stretch during which he had not looked like himself. Blair laid out how juicy the matchup appeared on the surface in the Wrong Read:
Lamar Jackson (BAL vs CIN)
BAL pass offense: No. 17 in time to pressure allowed (2.88 seconds), No. 8 in average separation (3.6).
CIN pass defense: No. 32 in time to pressure (3.04), No. 32 in YAC over expected allowed, No. 31 in EPA per pass allowed (0.31).
The GLSP is strangely skeptical of what is on-paper the best passing matchup of the slate. No team allows more YACOE than the Bengals, and no team gives opposing QBs more time to throw. Of course, volume could be an issue, especially when you consider Baltimore’s alternative on offense.
In this week’s D/ST Streamers article, Ross Durham added some additional context as to why Thursday’s game against the Bengals should represent a bounceback for Jackson:
Lamar Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants against what might be the worst defense in football, considering they let Carson Wentz and Justin Fields do whatever they wanted while dropping a combined 86 points on them this year.
Instead of lighting up the Bengals’ defense, the Ravens’ offensive ineptitude made Cincinnati’s defenders look like the 1985 Bears, if only for one night. The 14 points Baltimore scored were the fewest by any offense against Cincinnati this season. On top of forcing five turnovers, the Bengals defense also registered three sacks against a version of Jackson who quite obviously lacks his usual burst.
While Derrick Henry was able to top 100 scrimmage yards and reach the end zone once, it still felt like he left a lot on the table, considering how favorable a matchup the Bengals have been for running backs over the past five weeks.
The same has been true for tight ends. But even the biggest highlight of Isaiah Likely’s 5-95-0 bounce-back game was a fumble that was knocked out of his hands just before crossing the goal line that went out of the back of the end zone for a touchback.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore’s defense was not able to take advantage of the Bengals’ terrible offensive line or a rusty Burrow, only registering one sack and one turnover on the day after coming into the game on a recent hot streak, per Ross:
Joe Burrow should be forced to throw early and often in his first game since Week 2, with Tee Higgins missing. That’s good for the Ravens, who still have one of the most talented secondaries in the game and have cashed in on nine turnovers in their last four games.
While Burrow did come out slinging it, Baltimore was not able to capitalize. The Thursday night matchup between the Bengals and Ravens has to be considered a promising step forward for Cincinnati in Burrow’s return, but we are now left with more questions than answers about Baltimore’s outlook for the rest of the season. In Jackson’s case, fantasy managers are just looking for some semblance of the player we saw at the beginning of the year.
Please, Lamar, come back.
Bears @ Eagles
No one thrust themselves back into the spotlight last season quite like Saquon Barkley. For as exhilarating as his 2024 was, Barkley’s 2025 has been almost equally as disappointing. And things are not getting any easier following the loss of one of the bookends of the Eagles’ line, as Thomas Emerick detailed in this week’s Offensive Lines and Their Fantasy Impacts column:
The famous Lane Johnson splits are part of weekly fantasy decisions once again.
This tertiary but not insignificant factor was put to the test during the Eagles’ collapse in Dallas without the future Hall of Famer, even if Philly’s full game EPA landed about halfway between the In and Out splits on the season leading up to the game. They had an EPA per play of +0.078 with Johnson versus -0.097 in snaps without their longtime right tackle.
The 0.003 EPA/play mark that day against the Cowboys’ maligned-yet-improved defense landed at 11th of 28 teams for the week — not every game benefited from climate-controlled sites in November.
Unlike in the Bengals-Ravens matchup, where we all felt like we knew what we were getting, fantasy managers really had no clue what to expect going into this one, as Shawn pointed out in The Banana Stand:
The Eagles and Bears come into Black Friday as two of the most controversial teams in the NFL. If you read my deep dive into Chicago a week ago, you know that they’ve relied on fluky fourth-quarter heroics to overcome poor peripherals against one of the league’s easiest schedules. They’re still 8-3 with a rising QB and an instant HC star in Ben Johnson.
The defending Super Bowl champions are arguably even harder to read. They’re also 8-3, but were outgained in each of their first eight contests — often by large margins — and again in their Week 11 win against the Lions and their Week 12 collapse against the Cowboys.
Their unwillingness to pass has complemented Barkley’s big-play downturn, but not in the way anyone expected. Jalen Hurts has given the offense a bit of a spark across the last six weeks, throwing for 280-plus yards on three occasions and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.
Of course, over this stretch he’s had the easiest QB schedule in the NFL.
It feels pretty safe to say that no one would have predicted the Bears would move to 9-3 in quite the way they did on Friday. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai did their best impression of Johnson’s Detroit tandem of Gibbs and Montgomery, as both notched at least 125 rushing yards and a touchdown on the day. In this week’s RB Advanced Stats article, Corbin Young dove a little deeper into Chicago’s backfield performance against Philadelphia:
We saw the Bears’ backfield dominate the Eagles on Friday in Week 13. We saw Kyle Monangai lead the Bears’ backfield in snap share for the first time in Week 12, possibly hinting that the rookie is taking on a more significant role than D’Andre Swift, as seen below. The spike in Monangai’s snap share in Week 9 came with Swift out.
We’ll see how the snap shares look in Week 13, but they obliterated the Eagles’ run defense, racking up over 200 rushing yards between Swift and Monangai. That’s notable because the Eagles’ run defense allowed the 10th-lowest adjusted YBC/Att, yet the Bears’ offensive line ranked sixth in adjusted YBC/Att. After being toward the bottom of the running back advanced stats group in YAC/Att, we expect them to be much higher in Week 13 after both produced well against the Eagles.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams only totaled 154 passing yards on 17 completions. Although the stat lines of Chicago’s receivers left plenty to be desired, it is noteworthy that Luther Burden III led the team in receptions, tied for the team lead in targets, and fell just three yards short for tops in receiving yards after being the cover boy for this week’s Waivers article:
Luther Burden III displaced Olamide Zaccheus as the Bears’ WR3 over the past two weeks, with the latter only seeing one target against the Steelers on Sunday. Over the past two games, Burden is leading Chicago’s wideouts in expected points added per snap, nearly doubling up DJ Moore, who is the next in line. Although facing the league’s worst WR schedule through Week 17 is a bit disheartening, Burden’s arrow is pointed straight up nonetheless.
In a game with huge playoff implications, the defending Super Bowl champions were mostly flat, allowing Chicago to leapfrog them to claim the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff picture. Just as Thomas predicted, Barkley’s struggles continued, as he only mustered 5.6 PPR points on the day. Really, the only bright spot on the day was A.J. Brown, who pulled in both of Hurts’ TD throws on his way to putting up his second straight 100-yard game. Despite Brown’s two big performances in a row, I’m still sticking to my take from this week’s WR Advanced Stats article, where I advised moving on from Brown in dynasty leagues this offseason:
By the looks of the air yard numbers of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith from Week 12, we would assume that things are starting to get right in the Eagles’ passing attack. Although there were some positive takeaways for fantasy managers, it still feels like Philadelphia has a long way to go before they have any chance of replicating their reality success from last season.
Both Brown and Smith saw double-digit targets against Dallas and were top-20 in IAY for the week. Smith ranked third among all wideouts in IAY, and his 40% air yards conversion rate was solid after taking into account his 16.0 IAY/T. While Brown’s total IAY was almost half that of his teammate’s, his 75 converted air yards led the team and ranked sixth among WRs this week.
The Eagles got off to a blazing start against the Cowboys, opening up a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter. It was an added bonus that Brown was getting looks early and often, scoring a touchdown on Philadelphia’s opening drive and catching all five of his targets for 67 yards in the first quarter. Then it was Smith’s turn, as Jalen Hurts hit him for a 41-yard gain to set up the Eagles’ third TD early in the second quarter.
From there, the Eagles would only run 34 offensive plays across eight drives as they shied away from the passing game until the fourth quarter, after momentum was already firmly in Dallas’ corner. And while Brown (PPR WR6) and Smith (WR21) were able to add to their stat lines in the final quarter and finish as top-24 options for the week, fantasy managers were still left feeling like there was a ton left on the table in a plus matchup against a weak Cowboys’ secondary.
This season, Smith is seeing his highest aDOT since his rookie year, which has likely been the primary reason his catchable target has dipped by almost 10%. But Smith is making do, bringing in his catchable targets at a similar rate as last year despite the jump in aDOT. However, his PPR per game has slipped by nearly two points, falling from 15.3 down to 13.5. But since Smith has been able to stay mostly healthy this year, he currently ranks as the PPR WR16 in 2025 despite the dip in per-game scoring.
While Smith is doing whatever he can to maintain, Brown is not faring as well. When looking at the quality and volume of Brown’s targets, his numbers have stayed mostly static compared to 2024. Unfortunately, it is Brown who appears to have slipped, with his receptions per catchable targets rate slipping by almost 10%. In turn, Brown’s PPR/GM has fallen from 16.7 to 12.7, which has landed him all of the way down at WR30 in PPR scoring for the year.
The problems in Philadelphia’s passing game have been exacerbated in 2025 by Saquon Barkley’s struggles. Although Hurts is definitely part of the problem, it feels safe to say that Brown should be willing to shoulder his fair share of the blame. Despite being 28 years old — an age when most WRs are still considered to be in their prime — it appears that Brown’s skills are starting to decline. Even though he still has enough ability to put up big games, it does feel like we are seeing a change of the guard in the Eagles’ WR room.
With this in mind, fantasy managers should be looking to sell any remaining shares of Brown that they have in dynasty this offseason, while also looking to gain more exposure to Smith.
While the Eagles were winning, Brown had plenty to say about his lack of involvement in the offense. Now Philadelphia has lost two straight, but Brown is getting fed. While diagnosing the root cause of Philadelphia’s recent struggles is not as simple as that, it is still a talking point to consider as Philadelphia looks to turn things around down the home stretch of the 2025 regular season.
Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!
What’s included in your subscription??
Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff
Kevin Szafraniec uses RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover under-the-radar trends at the wide receiver position from the first 12 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. All the way back in Week 2, I examined Wan’Dale Robinson’s evolving role in the Giants’ offense. Since then, a lot has changed around him — the season-ending injury to Malik Nabers, the elevation of Jaxson Dart into the starting…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 13. As fantasy seasons wind down every year and non-contenders begin to lose interest, without fail there will always be emerging players who fly under the radar because many fantasy managers simply aren’t paying attention. Now that we are coming down the stretch of…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 12 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. The further we get into the 2025 NFL season, the more it seems that the league’s top players are one-upping each other in each passing week. After Brock Bowers returned from injury in Week 9 to set a season high with…...
Kevin Szafraniec uses RotoViz’s Advanced Stats Explorer to uncover under-the-radar trends at the wide receiver position from the first 12 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. All the way back in Week 2, I examined Wan’Dale Robinson’s evolving role in the Giants’ offense. Since then, a lot has changed around him — the season-ending injury to Malik Nabers, the elevation of Jaxson Dart into the starting…...
Kevin Szafraniec highlights the best players available on waivers in 50% or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 13. As fantasy seasons wind down every year and non-contenders begin to lose interest, without fail there will always be emerging players who fly under the radar because many fantasy managers simply aren’t paying attention. Now that we are coming down the stretch of…...
Kevin Szafraniec discusses the biggest storylines of Week 12 with the help of RotoViz’s industry-leading suite of tools, most notably the Monday Review Tool. The further we get into the 2025 NFL season, the more it seems that the league’s top players are one-upping each other in each passing week. After Brock Bowers returned from injury in Week 9 to set a season high with…...
