Shawn Siegele has some fun with the ESPN Playoff Machine, projects every remaining NFL game, and finishes his 1-32 NFL team rankings with the top-16 teams in the NFL.
The ESPN Playoff Machine allows us to simulate the remaining NFL games in a variety of ways. Before actually picking every NFL game the rest of the way, let’s take a peek at what some of the defaults can give us.
Using Offensive Rank to Simulate the Rest of the Season
- In this simulation, offensively oriented teams like the Lions and Cowboys both climb back from the brink to qualify, while inept squads like the Eagles, Jaguars, and Texans miss.
- The Patriots and Bears clinch the top seeds and the byes that go with them.
Using Defensive Rank to Simulate the Rest of the Season
- In this iteration, the Seahawks claim the No. 1 seed while the Bears fall out entirely on the NFC side. This helps to illustrate the tenuous nature of Chicago’s situation despite their claim to the top spot if the season ended today. NextGen’s playoff probability has them at only 78% to even make the playoffs, a far cry from Denver and New England at 99%.
- Interestingly, the Lions climb back into the playoffs in this version as well, this time with a 10-7 final record.
Using Home Field to Simulate the Rest of the Season
- The 49ers have already played 13 games, and three of their four remaining contests are at home. They didn’t even make the playoffs in the first scenario, but they rise to the No. 1 seed here.
- The Broncos gain the No. 1 seed on the AFC side for the first time, winning the tiebreak with the Patriots while taking three of their last five.
- Meanwhile the Colts miss the playoffs for the second straight time, a reminder of their difficult schedule situation.
- This version also has a below-.500 squad making the playoffs for the first time and offering a hint about Cincinnati’s potential even as they finish a game back.
Using Current Record to Simulate Rest of the Season
- This sim introduces ties, which are always fun. Detroit finishes a half-game back of Green Bay, a team that has tied in reality, for the final NFC playoff spot.
- The Steelers edge the Ravens in the AFC North, while Indianapolis misses the playoffs yet again.
Using Point Differential to Simulate Rest of the Season (By Hand)
- Point differential doesn’t necessarily reflect where every team is in the moment, nor will the favorites win every game, but this scenario reinforces the potential for teams with good metrics but poor results (K.C., Detroit) to pull back into playoff position.
And now it’s time to go week-by-week and handpick every game.
