Kevin Szafraniec highlights some of the biggest NFL storylines of the week, as seen through the eyes of RotoViz’s staff and our industry-leading suite of tools.
With the 2025 fantasy season nearly at an end, it feels safe to say we have a pretty strong grasp on who the biggest hits and misses of the year have been. While there is always room for a few more surprises over the final two weeks of the fantasy postseason, it is unlikely that anyone will be coming out of nowhere to claim fantasy’s MVP award. Articles across the site this week have shed some light on 2025’s highs and lows amid an exhilarating start to the fantasy postseason.
The Highest of Highs
With recency bias firmly at the forefront of my mind, it is difficult to argue against calling Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the two most important players in fantasy this season. However, neither player had an average draft position (ADP) inside the first round of FFPC drafts because concerns about the quarterbacks made drafters wary of each player’s ceiling.
While the summer’s prior concerns had been squashed long ago, Thursday’s NFC West showdown dispelled any doubts about either player’s position at the top of 2025’s fantasy hierarchy. In this week’s Monday Review, I outlined the gravity of the matchup. The game was able to live up to the hype, and then some:
Thursday Night’s Rams-Seahawks Matchup Will Define the NFC Playoff Race
Even though Week 15 has yet to come to a close, it is difficult not to already be looking ahead to this Thursday’s NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Rams in Seattle. After both teams picked up wins on Sunday, they sit tied for the best record in the NFC, with Los Angeles currently holding the tiebreaker following their home win back in Week 11. Whichever team comes out on top in Week 16 will control their own playoff destiny over the final two weeks of the regular season and have a first-round bye squarely in their sights.
Both the Seahawks and Rams showed grit in tough Week 15 matchups. An explosive Lions team traveled to Los Angeles and came out swinging, as Amon-Ra St. Brown looked fully healed from his ankle injury on his way to scoring two TDs halfway through the second quarter. But St. Brown was not alone in giving the Rams’ secondary fits, as Jameson Williams joined him as a top-three PPR option for the week.
Sandwiched between the Lions’ dynamic WR duo, we find Puka Nacua, who reset his career high in receiving yards for the second time this season by pulling in nine of his 11 targets for 181 yards and looking largely unstoppable in the pass game.
Unlike the Detroit offense, the Rams featured a balanced attack that allowed them to start pulling away from the Lions as the third quarter came to a close. The Rams’ 1-2 punch of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were both able to reach double-digit PPR points, while neither Jahmyr Gibbs nor David Montgomery was able to claim the same after being the focus of the Rams’ stout defensive front all game.
Seattle surprisingly had a decent amount of trouble dealing with the Philip Rivers-led Colts, but the Seahawks were ultimately able to come away with the win after Jason Meyers’ sixth field goal put Seattle ahead 18-16 with 18 seconds remaining in regulation. The Seattle running game got little going against Indianapolis’ defensive front, with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet scoring 6.0 PPR points combined one week after neither back hit double digits against the Falcons.
As has been the case all season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba did most of the heavy lifting on offense, although it was nice to see continued signs of progress from Rashid Shaheed, who logged his second straight game above 12.0 PPR points. Following a slow start that included Smith-Njigba not seeing a single target in the first quarter, he headed into halftime with only three catches for 31 yards with the Seahawks down 13-6. However, Smith-Njigba came out in the second half and had his way with the Colts’ secondary, serving as the primary catalyst for Seattle’s win.
It is safe to say the Rams possess more offensive firepower than the Seahawks, and there is a case to be made that they out-talent Seattle at every position. But after Davante Adams reaggravated a lingering hamstring injury early in the fourth quarter against Detroit, there is a very strong chance that he will not be back on the field in time for Thursday night’s game, which could level the playing field a bit for Seattle.
Back in their first meeting, Smith-Njigba out-dueled Nacua in the box score despite not coming away with the win.
In Week 16, Smith-Njigba will have to do that and more as he continues to make his case to become the first non-QB to win the NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson did so 13 years ago. Knocking Matthew Stafford and the Rams out of the top of the NFC playoff standings will go a long way toward Smith-Njigba making his case as the most valuable player in the NFL this season, while breaking the all-time receiving yardage record will also likely be necessary before voters will take his candidacy seriously.
Week 15 Monday Review: Round 1 of the Fantasy Playoffs Has Had No Shortage of Fireworks
On Thursday, Smith-Njigba once again saw little work in the first half, putting up a goose egg in fantasy points. Fortunately, he was able to turn it on after halftime, eclipsing 20.0 PPR points with his overtime touchdown, which set up the game-winning two-point conversion.
Although the Seahawks came out with the win, the fantasy story of the night was Nacua’s 12-225-2 receiving line. But based on Nacua’s recent play, there is a very strong likelihood that his fantasy managers were still alive in the semifinals and will be able to benefit from his career day. I detailed Nacua’s recent hot streak in this week’s WR Advanced Stats article:
The only wideout who converted more air yards than [Mike] Evans in Week 15 was Puka Nacua.
Sunday marked the second time this season Nacua has set a new career high in receiving yards. And if not for a 170-yard outburst back in Week 4, it would have marked the second time in as many weeks that he accomplished that feat.
One recent trend that has helped ignite Nacua is an increase in aDOT. Over the past two games, Nacua’s targets are coming at an average of 12.6 IAY per target (IAY/T) compared to 8.5 IAY/T over the first 13 weeks of the season.
For the year, Nacua’s 9.2 IAY/T lines up exactly with his rookie year, with his 2024 aDOT of 8.1 IAY/T sandwiched in between. We have seen fluctuations in Nacua’s IAY/T on a week-to-week basis throughout his career, so we should be cautious about assuming the past two weeks mark the start of a permanent shift in his role.
Generally, we do not hear fans find fault with Nacua’s IAY profile as often as we hear them gripe about his red-zone usage. Still, the advantages he presents when working downfield appear to be pretty obvious.
It is difficult to argue with Nacua’s overall WR2 standing, but that does not mean that there isn’t room for improvement. If the Rams begin using him more regularly as a vertical threat, it could unlock a whole new element of his game. If that scenario were ever to come to fruition, Nacua might become the NFL’s unquestioned alpha at the WR position.
Just in case you were wondering, Nacua’s air yards per target did hit double digits against the Seahawks, although it fell short of his pace from the past two weeks. But as I mentioned in the article, his two touchdown receptions will probably overshadow his deeper aDOT, although both may prove equally valuable in Nacua’s growing claim as the NFL’s alpha WR.
I have seen some debate on social media this week pertaining to whether or not TreVeyon Henderson should be considered a hit or a miss this season. Honestly, the answer will likely depend on which point of the summer you drafted him.
Drafters who chased Henderson’s late-summer ADP into the middle of the third round definitely expected him to be a viable starting option out of the gate. However, the chances were always that he would start the year splitting time with Rhamondre Stevenson, an outcome more palatable at the fifth-round price tag he held for most of the draft season. While no one expected Henderson’s usage to crater to the depths that it hit early in the year, it can be argued that he has been making up for it lately, as Henderson’s explosiveness has finally superseded the stubbornness of New England’s coaching staff.
In this week’s RB Advanced Stats article, Corbin Young broke down Henderson’s recent play:
TreVeyon Henderson led Week 15 with 6.2 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att). He was one of seven running backs with 2.0 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) and 3.0 YAC/Att in Week 15. Besides Henderson, Derrick Henry, Keaton Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, and De’Von Achane met those thresholds.
Mitchell and Stevenson had a small sample of single-digit rush attempts. However, it’s notable that two running backs on the Patriots and Ravens were thriving in yards before and after contact. The Patriots faced the Bills in Week 15, who have been the second-worst run defense in adjusted YBC/Att allowed, ahead of the Giants. Since Week 9, we’ve seen Henderson handle 69% of the snaps with 52% of the team’s rush attempts and a 13% target share. That leads the team in all the opportunity categories.
That’s a significant change in usage after Stevenson led the team in snaps (62%) and rush share (36%) in Weeks 1-8. Henderson handled 23% of the rush attempts and 32% of the snaps while having a similar target share to Stevenson at 8-9% in Weeks 1-8. There has been a drastic difference in their running back advanced stats. Henderson averages 3.90 YAC/Att with only an 11% evasion rate. Stevenson garners 2.60 YAC/Att, yet a significantly better 20% evasion rate.
With the Patriots’ RBs owning the second-best fantasy schedule over the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, there is a good chance Henderson could completely rewrite his rookie year narrative by helping fantasy managers bring home titles in 2025. Admittedly, experiencing the emotional rollercoaster that inevitably accompanies each fantasy season is not always fun. However, as in Henderson’s case, it is considerably more enjoyable when the highs come at the end of the year rather than at the beginning.
The Lowest of Lows
Fantasy managers will have a difficult time finding a 2025 offense that disappointed more than the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy has single-handedly cratered the fantasy value of all of his pass catchers this season. After numerous journeyman backups successfully kept Justin Jefferson’s stat lines afloat over the past few years, it was reasonable to assume that a top-10 draft pick would be able to achieve the same result. In this week’s installment of The Banana Stand, Shawn Siegele lays out how wrong that mindset proved to be:
We weren’t completely out on a player of Jefferson’s talent, especially in mid-Round 1, regardless of the circumstances, but he was a mild fade due to target competition and extreme uncertainty at QB.
What happened: J.J. McCarthy was dramatically worse than Zach Wilson.
To put that in a bit of context . . .
I’ve honestly never seen anything like this. McCarthy’s level of incompetence might be the most stunning result of the last 20 years.
Outlook: Even pure backup-level QBs could keep Jefferson in Round 1 next season, but the Vikings have painted themselves into a corner where they could go a second season without even that level of play.
Things have gotten so bad that Minnesota is now a team that defenses circle on their calendars. Despite the Giants being one of the lowest-scoring D/STs this season, Ross Durham explains why they could be in for a big day against McCarthy and Co. in this week’s D/ST Streamers article:
New York Giants (vs. Vikings): Available in 93.8% of ESPN Leagues/$2600 on DraftKings
J.J. McCarthy is coming off the two best games of his young career. Should we stop targeting him for the time being? Not if we want to take advantage of the price dip. The Vikings have faced very little pressure against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and have had success using Justin Jefferson as a decoy to open up the field for Jalen Nailor. That could change this week. The Giants still have one of the meanest defensive lines in the game and could be up against a Minnesota offensive line missing both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Prior to the last two weeks, McCarthy threw ten interceptions in just six games and remains a big fat meltdown risk if Dexter Lawrence, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, and Abdul Carter get cooking. If McCarthy goes out and turns the ball over four times this week, no one would be especially surprised. But then you won’t be able to get his next D/ST opponent for $2600 on DraftKings.
Everything Is Aligning for Buffalo’s Perfect Storm in Cleveland: D/ST Streaming, Week 16
Another one of my biggest oversights this draft season was prioritizing Jarquez Hunter over Blake Corum in the final rounds of drafts.
While I was certainly not alone in this stance, it does not help the multitude of my best ball rosters that could have benefited from the boost Corum would have given them this year. However, the fluidity of redraft rosters did allow for me to partially rectify this mistake, as Corum has been among the top RB adds in my Waivers column all season:
Blake Corum has been a staple of this article all season. Even when his ownership sat below 10%, he was still consistently ranked in the top two running back tiers based on a decent amount of standalone value and the massive potential of his contingent upside. Recently, his role has grown in the Rams offense, and while fantasy managers have taken note, his ownership in home leagues has only risen to the levels where they should have been all season. At this point, Corum should be owned in all leagues. If you still have an opportunity to add him to your rosters, now is the time to act.
Corum continues to pick up steam, finishing as an RB2 or better in each of the past three weeks. A tough matchup against Seattle on Thursday isn’t ideal, but it’s hard to bet against the Rams’ running attack right now. A date with the Seahawks’ run defense becomes less worrisome after realizing that Kyren Williams almost hit the century mark against them just over a month ago.
However, a Week 17 meeting with a generous Atlanta rush defense could result in both Corum and Williams going off in championship games. Over the past three weeks, Corum has looked like he is being shot out of a cannon on his way to averaging 9.3 yards per carry. While a lack of usage in the receiving game will always be his Achilles heel, he is doing enough on the ground right now to make up the difference.
While it is important to note that the Rams have faced the third-most favorable schedule for RBs during Corum’s recent hot streak, he still looked good in an unfavorable matchup against the Lions on Sunday and could usher a repeat performance on Thursday. Despite the concerns that Corum’s receiving profile and schedule present, I’m still buying in on him as a low-end RB2 or flex option over the final two weeks of the season.
Week 16 Waivers: It’s About Time Fantasy Managers Put Some Respect on Blake Corum’s Name
In Seattle on Thursday, Corum continued to be a usable fantasy asset, delivering 13.1 PPR points in a difficult matchup. He should continue to be a viable starter next week against the Falcons.
Lastly, sometimes starting out high can make the lows feel that much lower. Such was the case with Tucker Kraft this season. Through eight weeks, Kraft ranked as the PPR TE2 after being a fixture of RotoViz’s 2025 draft blueprint.
Kraft was the only Packers receiver who was able to get much of anything going through the first half of the year. After his season ended with a torn ACL, there was some hope that 2023 second-rounder Luke Musgrave could step up in his place. The results so far have not been promising, but Neil Dutton did offer a little bit of hope for Musgrave’s Week 16 outlook in his TE Streamers article:
Luke Musgrave was never going to replace Tucker Kraft. But he has at least seen his opportunities and productivity increase since Kraft was lost for the season. So that’s something, right?
Indeed, Musgrave has seen 10 targets over his last two games, including one against the Bears. The two meet again this weekend.
Musgrave is unlikely to feature among the very elite in terms of fantasy output. He could, but you think he would need to find the end zone a couple of times to do it. Given Musgrave has one touchdown in his NFL career, you’d have to say that he was due a couple of scores, right? The Bears are not an elite defense and haven’t been shutting down TEs this season. They haven’t been gashed either, but we skew positive in these pages. TEs have averaged 5.2 receptions for 46 yards against the Bears in their last five games. There is the possible absence of Christian Watson for the Packers, which could see a slight boost in all other receivers’ opportunities, too. Even so, Musgrave would be my third choice out of the three players mentioned here.
