One of the useful things that you can do with player comparables is get a sense as to how rare (or not rare) a player’s production is as they enter the NFL. For instance, sometimes there will be a player that is being talked about as a 1st round talent and then you look at his mix of production and physical measurables and see that a lot of guys that were similar ended up going later in the draft. It begs the question as to why you would burn a pick on that player early when you might be able to get something similar much later in the draft (even if not in the same year).
When I look at Markus Wheaton’s comparables I see two names that were picked relatively early in the draft (Kendall Wright and Jeremy Maclin) and then some other names that went later. Both of those guys will probably be fine for their teams, but they also might not provide the greatest ROI to their teams given their draft slot. I’m probably more of a fan of getting bigger guys (who also produced in college) in that range and while it might seem like that’s not really possible, Dez Bryant, Hakeem Nicks and Demaryius Thomas all went after pick 20 in the draft and all would fit the algorithmic projection model that we use here. Then if you add in the fact that a player like Markus Wheaton might be similar physically and in terms of college production to Wright and Maclin, and Wheaton will be available later in the draft, I think the value picture becomes complete. This is basically taking the arbitrage idea that we deploy in our fantasy drafts and applying it to the NFL.
Having said all of that, here are some players that are relatively comparable to Markus Wheaton.
*The most common comment that is always given on these player comparables is that you need to adjust for college scheme. The good news is that we already do. The Market Share numbers (msYDS and msTD) are the player’s share of his college team’s passing yards.
|Markus Wheaton-Oregon State||2012||189.0||4.45||1.1||13||0.32||0.44||95.69||0.85||13.7||10.9|
|Kyle Williams-Arizona State||2009||188.0||4.40||0.2||11||0.34||0.57||74.09||0.73||14.3||6.6|