Using the similarity search criteria that I laid out yesterday, I’m going to be doing quick posts for each of the receivers in this year’s draft. I always say that similarity doesn’t equal destiny, so you can take these all with a grain of salt. When I go through comps I’m mostly looking to see if the comparable players changes my view of the subject player at all. I should also say that when I look at comparables, I don’t say “how many of the comps are Hall of Famers?” – that’s a standard that isn’t very helpful. I’ll even see players that some might consider negative while I consider them a positive. For instance, I always think it’s cool when Hakeem Nicks shows up in a player’s comps. Nicks was a great college player and then succeeded in the NFL at a very young age before his career was derailed by injuries. Kenny Britt is another example where I probably have a slightly more positive view. Even if Britt’s dominant games in the NFL can be counted on two hands (or maybe even one hand), he was a beast and I kind of think his career probably would have turned out differently if not for injuries.
Having said that, here are the Allen Robinson comparables with commentary below the table.
DR = Dominator Rating, GMSDOM = number of games where a .35 DR was achieved over a career, MAXAGE = the age that the player played his last college game
|NAME||SEAS||DP (Estimated)||MAXAGE||WT||40 Tm||YPG||TDPG||GMSDOM||DR|
- I estimated Robinson as the 60th overall pick for purposes of generating the comps. But you can see that the similar player universe is sparse enough that the returned comps include some first rounders. There’s just no way around this if you want to compare a decent number of players.
- The players with the highest draft position in this table were actually the most disastrous draft picks.
- Robinson is very young and all of these players also entered the league at a young age.
- You can see that the average of the comps is a close approximation of Robinson. That’s true for all but the height/weight mix. Robinson is bigger and slightly slower than the comp group.
- I like Robinson as a prospect, but I would be much more excited about him if he were faster. My guess is that he’ll run again at his pro day and clock a 4.55 or so, just because that’s about average for a receiver and it’s not that far from where he ran in Indy. But the tough thing when drafting him in a rookie draft is that depending on what situation he ends up in, you might be waiting a few years to see how he pans out.