Charles Clay, Zach Ertz, and Some Early TE Values

charlesclay

I’m going to run through the position groups using the same methodology that I described in my QB post here.

Simply, I’ll forecast each player using the Sim Score apps, then I’ll standardize that score and compare it to a standardized ADP. The difference between the standardized ADP and the standardized projection is what I’ll call the Delta.

I like doing things this way because it gives more granularity than simply putting ranks next to projections. If Jimmy Graham is the top ranked and projected TE, he could still technically be a value. This methodology will tell us whether he is or not (if his standardized projection is better than his standardized ADP).

First, here’s the table using FF Calculator ADP, then sorted by the Delta. Some thoughts after the table.

Overall ADP Pick Name Projection STD Proj STD ADP Delta
160 13.08 Antonio Gates 11.20 0.26 (1.16) 1.43
147 12.08 Charles Clay 9.60 (0.41) (0.91) 0.50
123 10.12 Zach Ertz 10.40 (0.07) (0.44) 0.37
36 4.01 Rob Gronkowski 14.40 1.61 1.25 0.35
178 14.03 Heath Miller 7.80 (1.16) (1.51) 0.35
8 1.09 Jimmy Graham 15.40 2.03 1.80 0.23
139 12.01 Martellus Bennett 9.00 (0.66) (0.75) 0.09
152 13.02 Ladarius Green 8.20 (1.00) (1.01) 0.01
174 14.02 Jace Amaro 7.00 (1.50) (1.43) (0.07)
76 7.04 Jordan Reed 11.50 0.39 0.47 (0.08)
63 6.02 Jordan Cameron 12.10 0.64 0.73 (0.09)
72 6.12 Jason Witten 11.60 0.43 0.55 (0.12)
54 5.04 Vernon Davis 12.30 0.73 0.90 (0.18)
85 7.12 Greg Olsen 10.60 0.01 0.30 (0.29)
30 3.05 Julius Thomas 13.10 1.06 1.37 (0.31)
103 9.04 Kyle Rudolph 9.60 (0.41) (0.05) (0.36)
95 8.08 Dennis Pitta 9.50 (0.45) 0.10 (0.55)
111 9.12 Eric Ebron 7.00 (1.50) (0.21) (1.29)
  • Several of the TEs at the bottom of the table (overvalued end) are also in changing situations. I think that Sim Scores can inform our thoughts on their value, but the Sim Scores also aren’t the last word.
  • I don’t think that Kyle Rudolph is really the vertical TE that Norv Turner really uses well, but maybe that won’t matter.
  • Maybe Julius Thomas is worth his 3rd round price because he’ll pick up a lot of the Decker production, although the downside is that because his production was so TD dependent, he could be volatile.
  • Greg Olsen might pick up a lot of the slack in CAR, or maybe Kelvin Benjamin will. This all requires more evidence.
  • Of the names at the bottom of the list, the two that I would be most comfortable betting against are Eric Ebron and Vernon Davis.
  • VD was TD dependent last year, plays for a team that seems not to understand his value, and now will compete with a few fresh faces for targets when there weren’t a lot to go around anyway.
  • In Ebron’s case I just think he’s a rookie and that’s that.
  • I had to customize Zach Ertz’s projection by looking at mostly his late season games where he was targeted a good amount. I’m not sure if that’s the best way to forecast his production.
  • Antonio Gates is potentially a value trap. I’m not even sure that handcuffing Gates with Ladarius Green is that great of an idea. It’s true that neither costs very much, but you might also not know whether either is startable. But this is an idea that I think requires more study.
  • This methodology actually does reveal Graham to be a value. The uniqueness of his projection outstrips the uniqueness of his ADP. The same is true for Rob Gronkowski.
  • For a 12th round pick you kind of have to like Charles Clay. He’s maybe the best WR in MIA.
  • I don’t have a way to use the Sim Score app for rookies so I just used 7 pts/game for each. Honestly I would really have to see something impressive out of the rookie TEs to take them in a re-draft.

Just using some articles from the site thus far I can start to build out the later rounds of my re-draft strategy. I’m just relying on this article, this article, and the table above to create the list. It might look something like this:

Round Player
1
2
3
4
5 Michael Floyd
6 Torrey Smith
7 Eric Decker
8 Cam Newton
9
10 Zach Ertz
11
12 Charles Clay
13
14
15
16 Brian Hartline
17
18

To be fair, stacking my three WR targets in rounds 5-7 is probably fairly risky as the odds of going 3 for 3 are long (i.e. I might miss one of them, although the popularity of WR early this year might make it easy to scoop value WRs in the middle of the draft). Some people might be down on Cam Newton, although I think the price is low and I don’t think his receivers have ever really helped him that much. Then my TE strategy certainly isn’t dominant, although I do think it’s serviceable. But I’m going to be honest and say that I kind of like that team already and it doesn’t even have a 1st-4th round pick yet.

My strategy will probably be pretty fluid until we get into August, but this is at least a start on coming up with a re-draft strategy for this year.