Jaguars announce rookie WR Allen Robinson will be out “extended period of time.” Not good with Cecil Shorts also hurt.
— NFL: AroundTheLeague (@NFL_ATL) August 1, 2014
Shawn Siegele has opined that Marqise Lee could be this year’s Keenan Allen, which would also make him the rookie to own. Shawn also made a comparison of Sammy Watkins and Lee where Lee holds up pretty well. As I noted in this piece, I was convinced enough by Shawn’s argument to use the 18th overall pick in a rookie draft on the wideout.
A key component of Keenan Allen’s rise last year was the parting of the Red Sea that happened in front of him on the depth chart. Lee might have already been a lock as a starter, but this news will mean additional targets for Lee as well. Remember that Cecil Shorts’ hamstrings have all of the elasticity of a radiator belt.
The interesting thing is that based on current ADP, Lee is going as WR70. That is sure to change the longer that Robinson is expected to be out, but I don’t ever think it’s going to catch up with Sammy Watkins’ ADP. Lee is likely to see more targets as a rookie, while Watkins is sharing targets with two other fairly talented players in Mike Williams and Robert Woods. Even if you think those other two are stiffs, Watkins is sharing targets with them.
So right now Lee really does appear to be free money. That will change a little but I’ll be surprised if he ever creeps past WR50. Even if the Jags dial back their passing this year and put up 500 attempts, compared to 592 last year, assuming Lee can capture 25% of them he’s in line for 125 targets. You can’t get 125 targets at WR50 prices.
I still like Allen Robinson in dynasty and actually tried to trade for him the other day. This setback is more likely a bump in the road and you might wait a month or so before trying to make a play for Robinson.
One last point on Lee. Hopefully the fact that some of the RotoViz writers are ready to jump on his bandwagon will put to bed the idea that we’re rabid in our dislike of small or old prospects. The reality is that we’re just very value oriented and the edges we look for are open to exploitation. But when another exploitable opportunity comes along, like an old and small receiver who might be in store for a monster rookie season while also barely registering an ADP, we’ll jump on that too.