The Post-Combine mock began with Round 1, and we move on to Round 2 here. Risers are in green and fallers in red. (It is possible to see a player’s draft slot move in one direction and their prospects move in the other.) These are not my rankings, but instead an exploration of where I see the players going this summer. All visuals and commentary are new, so if you want more information on any individual player, don’t hesitate to also try the original mock of Rounds 2-4.
2.01. Duke Johnson, RB, Miami, 21.3, 5-9, 207
Johnson resides in the same location as last time, but on that occasion he was essentially locked in a tie with Jay Ajayi, T.J. Yeldon, and Tevin Coleman. The Alabama runner has plummeted out of this range, but Johnson is no longer a legitimate competitor with the other two. Miami’s record-holder turned in a very disappointing 4.54 forty and 33.5 inch vertical before opting out of the agility drills that might have helped rehab his value. Johnson’s RB Prospect Lab score cratered from a 71 to a 49.
2.02 Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota, 20.7, 6-4, 250
In my Combine preview, I asked whether Williams would establish himself as one of the best tight end prospects of the decade by running a 4.6 forty and generating above average scores in the agilities. He failed the first measure with a disappointing 4.78 but rallied somewhat with a good 4.37 in the short shuttle. Moreover, early drafters seem to be catching on to his tremendous 2014 season, and his ADP is rising slightly despite the disappointing Combine.
2.03 Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska, 21.6, 5-9, 205
Was there something wrong with the timing of the RB 40s? We can’t be sure, but we do know Abdullah looked almost superhuman in the explosion and agility drills after struggling to a 4.60 in sprint.
Plotted 40 times versus BRD+VERT for 310 RBs going back to ’00. 2015 had 9 of the 13 most extreme observations pic.twitter.com/EJyRi0V9rK
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) February 23, 2015
The Prospect Lab Rankings are now very down on Abdullah, but a 205-pound back with a strong collegiate resume, a 42.5-inch vertical and a 10.79 Agility Score is probably someone to target. You could make the case for him as fitting somewhere between LeSean McCoy and Giovani Bernard.
2.04 Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn, 6-1, 212
Coates’ status has always relied on his size and athleticism. While his Freak Score was ultimately a little disappointing, he demonstrated elite measurables at the Combine. Here’s a look at the top prospects exclusively on the athletic numbers.
Once you adjust for Jaelen Strong probably avoiding the agility drills due to the likelihood of under-performance, I think it’s reasonable to claim that Coates is the best overall athlete. With the confirmation of his athleticism in hand, his status is stable.
2.05 David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa, 23.0, 6-1, 224
After starring at the Senior Bowl, David Johnson torched the Combine as an encore. Some scouts have questioned his quickness, but he ran an absurd 6.82 three-cone at 226 pounds, second fastest behind Abdullah. With size, speed, quickness, and three-down ability, Johnson could quickly turn into this year’s Le’Veon Bell.
2.06 David Cobb, RB, Minnesota, 21.6, 5-11, 229
We don’t know Cobb’s true speed due to a tweak in his first forty trial, but a 38.5-inch vertical leap bolstered the argument for those who prefer “bruiser” to “plodder.” The former Golden Gopher could quickly become one of the NFL’s top early down workhorses.
2.07 Nelson Agholor, WR, USC, 21.6, 6-0, 198
In my pre-Combine look at why 40 times are so important for small wide receivers, I explained that Agholor needed to run a 4.44 to earn himself a Freak Score of 54. While that’s overly precise, I strongly believed a time in that range was crucial. If he did so, I had Jeremy Maclin as his closest comp in terms of size, DR, breakout age, and speed. He nailed a 4.42 and Maclin joins an impressive list of comps from the Box Score Scout.
2.08 Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida, 21.3, 6-2, 212
Perriman’s momentum crested just before the Combine as he started occasionally joining the first round in rookie mocks. And the hype was justified. Perriman could easily be mistaken for Kevin White. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury forced him out of the workout and stalled his progress. With the rest of the WR class impressing, he’s more of an afterthought at this point. Perriman’s likely to run a very fast time at his Pro Day, but significant skepticism will exist about those numbers.
2.09 Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska, 22.1, 6-6, 240
If the wide receivers impressed at the Combine, the edge rushers brought the house down. Although outclassed by some of his peers in the athletic measures, there was nothing about a 4.64 forty or 125-inch broad jump that did anything but solidify Gregory as a Top 10 overall pick in the upcoming reality draft. Greg Cosell recently claimed Gregory is a superior prospect to Jadeveon Clowney.
2.10 T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama, 6-1, 226
It will be interesting to see how NFL teams view Yeldon’s results in light of the way Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have struggled. While his Combine numbers weren’t as bad as Ingram’s, a 4.61 forty and 7.19 three-cone pushed his RB Prospect Lab score down to 37. Evan Silva still loves him and uses Arian Foster as a comp. Mock drafters at the excellent Dynasty League Football are ignoring his workout and still selecting him late in Round 1.
2.11 Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State, 22.8, 6-0, 196
Smith is a study in contradictions. He needed a 4.43 to hit the 54 Freak Score level and managed a 4.42. Unfortunately that still probably leaves him in the second or third round area. In order to stay in the first round discussion, he needed a result more in line with DeSean Jackson (4.35) or Mike Wallace (4.28). Smith was expected to be in that vicinity, so his weekend qualifies as a disappointment. He did leap 39 inches and sports a general level of athleticism that isn’t in doubt.
For a lot more on the intersection between productivity, breakout age, and forty times, there’s an exhaustive breakdown in Devin Smith, Phillip Dorsett, and The Importance of 40 Times for Small Receivers.
2.12 Jeremy Langford, RB, Michigan State, 6-0, 208
Langford is soaring up draft boards after running a 4.42, the fastest 40 of any RB at the Combine. The Michigan State bell cow even went 1.12 in a mock I’m doing with DLF. He still only managed a 48 in the Prospect Lab, in part because he caught a paltry 11 passes during his final campaign. Langford did haul in 28 receptions in 2013 and has scored 40 touchdowns over the last two seasons on 568 carries.
Dropped Out: Mike Davis, Leonard Williams, Javorius Allen, Phillip Dorsett
True dynasties are built by acquiring a lot of picks in Rounds 3 and 4 and then using those selections to choose high vol players like Jerrick McKinnon, Andre Williams, or Martavis Bryant. Part 3 of the Post-Combine Mock will be up shortly and will also feature a heavy dose of IDP.