Even though our site is still fairly young, we’ve already tried a number ways to get at the issue of figuring out who sharky fantasy players like in different formats. In 2013 we looked at the Pros vs. Joes drafts. We’ve also data-mined Thursday night GPPs to find out who the high volume players were playing in DFS. This year I’m planning on doing something similar with MFL10 data.
It’s still early right now, so we can’t be sure that every owner that’s entered a number of MFL10s will actually play a lot in the format, although I think that’s a safe assumption. If you’ve entered four out of the 28 leagues that have drafted (or are currently drafting) then I think it’s a safe assumption that you’ll probably play a decent number of MFL10s this year.
Here’s a list of some of the more targeted players among the number of owners that have entered at least four leagues already.
|Charles, Jamaal KCC RB||3.86|
|Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB||15.44|
|Graham, Jimmy NOS TE||17.00|
|Hill, Jeremy CIN RB||19.14|
|Mason, Tre STL RB||33.14|
|Bell, Joique DET RB||33.57|
|Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR||38.88|
|Forsett, Justin BAL RB||41.27|
|Gordon, Melvin FA RB (R)||46.43|
|Matthews, Jordan PHI WR||50.71|
|Jackson, DeSean WAS WR||55.43|
|Thomas, Julius DEN TE||59.14|
|Landry, Jarvis MIA WR||66.71|
|Spiller, C.J. BUF RB||69.80|
|Decker, Eric NYJ WR||73.57|
|Robinson, Allen JAC WR||78.43|
|Gore, Frank SFO RB||116.10|
Again, my methodology was pretty simple. Find franchise owners who had entered at least four MFL10s, then aggregate their picks by player and summarize the players that had been drafted the most often.
In some sense I hate to ascribe talent or skill to someone who might just have $40 burning a hole in their pocket, so implying that this list represents value in any way could be dangerous. On the other hand the list is valuable even if you didn’t ascribe talent to the person drafting it. As the season goes on the high volume players are likely to have an outsized impact on ADP, so it helps to know who they like. It’s also useful to try to climb in an owner’s head (or a group of collective owners in this case) and try to figure out what they’re thinking. I don’t look at every name on the list and say “that’s smart” – I look at every name and say “Is that smart?”
I pretty much love the CJ Spiller pick and I suspect we’ll see his ADP rise by about 20 spots or so over the next month. There are similar backs going quite a bit earlier right now.
One name that I think is sneaky is Jarvis Landry. Whether or not MIA brings in another receiving option I think the role that Landry plays in the offense could make him PPR gold.
I kind of like Tre Mason because you’re getting a starting running back on what is likely to be a run-heavy-defense-oriented team, and getting that RB for cheaper than someone like Marshawn Lynch.
I’ll be honest and say that I’m not 100 percent sure what to think about Kelvin Benjamin. He’s a player whose value would really implode if the Panthers drafted a wide receiver.
I would like Allen Robinson a lot if I knew for certain that Justin Blackmon wasn’t coming back. But with competition for targets I’m not sure.
Julius Thomas is another sneaky pick I think. There’s some potential that he could be back in DEN, which isn’t priced in to his draft position. Then if he does leave in free agency he’s leaving for a team that’s paying a good amount for him. His quarterback situation is no doubt getting worse, but his usage is likely going up. In any case, I think the ADP shown in the table doesn’t really reflect the upside. He was a second round pick last year.
What do you guys think? Are there names on the list that you like a lot?