Always be Reaching
This is a real test for the idea that you simply pay attention to draft position as a proxy for NFL talent. There’s some feeling that Phillip Dorsett was both a reach and a poor fit for IND. The RotoViz Scouting Index had Dorsett as the eighth wide receiver and he was drafted as the sixth off the board. Although the bigger issue is that he went to a team with a bunch of other needs that already had a small speed receiver.
Just so that the criticisms above aren’t conflated, I think that we can safely say it was kind of a bad pick simply because if it were going to be defended as a “best player available” pick, then ideally Dorsett would have come off the board after his relative ranking in the RSI. Note that I’m pretty comfortable substituting the judgment of the RSI component rankers for scouting perceived talent just due to its inherent advantage from a wisdom of the crowds standpoint.
Is Donte Moncrief’s Dynasty Stock Dead?
I actually made an offer for Donte Moncrief this morning. Here’s why:
What’s notable is that Moncrief easily has the best mix of athleticism and production in that table. What’s more is that Moncrief has a full year of NFL experience and he’s still six months younger than Dorsett!!
I don’t think it was good for Moncrief’s stock when the team drafted Dorsett. But it could be the case that they’re just trying to give themselves negotiating leverage when TY Hilton becomes a free agent. Maybe Dorsett isn’t related at all to Moncrief. That’s just speculation, but my point is more that since there’s now some uncertainty related to Moncrief, I would use it as an opportunity to buy him as cheaply as possible.
Again, it’s not great for Moncrief that the team drafted Dorsett. But it might not be as bad as is widely perceived.
Long Live Andrew Luck
Since the Colts drafted Luck in the 2012 draft they’ve used draft picks on two tight ends, three receivers, and they already had veteran Reggie Wayne. Even though I think they probably overpaid for Dorsett and could have gotten something comparable later, I still like that they’re basically throwing the kitchen sink at the problem of making their QB successful. And he was likely to be a success anyway just because of his prospect pedigree. Every team should approach their passing game in the same way. The goal isn’t to have a successful QB, it’s to have a successful offense.
What About Dorsett?
If you can’t tell from my earlier comments, I’m slightly skeptical about Dorsett. The biggest thing he has going for him is Andrew Luck. The biggest reason he might not succeed is probably competition for targets in the near term and possibly the long term as well.
Here are some Dorsett comparables:
You can see that things get pretty thin after Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss, who are coincidentally also both from The U. I don’t think that the comparables list means at all that Dorsett couldn’t be a success in the NFL. But lots of teams paid less for similarly productive and athletic receivers. The kind of player that shows up in this comp list is a very small and very fast player, who was moderately productive in their final season. But lots of players on this list have also had times where they were fantasy relevant. In fact it’s probably safe to say that Santonio Holmes had a somewhat decent career (although maybe not decent for the 25th overall selection in a draft).
In dynasty I could see myself pulling the trigger on Dorsett if he drops to the end of the first round. I don’t mind getting a player who starts to slide past players taken after them in the NFL draft. But we’ll have to wait to see what happens in the second round of the draft to know what to do with Dorsett.