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My Final Preseason Player Shares

I wanted to post a final version of the player targets articles I’ve been sharing throughout August. In the time since my last article I’ve done one more draft and also gone through one round of FAAB to land at the rosters that I’ll take into Week 1.

In total I have eight mid-stakes teams that I largely drafted with some version of a Zero RB strategy. Only twice did I take a RB before the fifth round. So six of the teams are some form of Zero RB. I’ve posted the table of any player that I own on at least two teams below. Here are my thoughts:

  • There are two types of players that I own a lot of. The guys I love, like Alshon Jeffery, Amari Cooper, and DeAndre Hopkins, and the guys that I can’t believe no one else likes, like Torrey Smith, Terrence West, and Khiry Robinson. As Kevin Cole pointed out in a recent Slack message, people really hate Torrey Smith.
  • In the final preseason FAAB run I loaded up on Dion Lewis although I now wish I’d gotten even more of him. He cost about one percent of FAAB, so he was essentially free, and I’ve already started him in one league for 15 points. He might have already paid off his FAAB price. I know that people will say that Belichick is going to screw around with the RB situation, and I don’t know that Lewis will be as involved as he was last night, but Shane Vereen went in the seventh round of drafts last year. So I think there’s a pretty big cushion in terms of the difference between Lewis’ cost and his potential value. Also, while I was able to get Lewis for one percent of FAAB, I don’t know that I’ll get him in the league where he’s still available. I might be priced out.
  • Getting priced out is what’s happened in regards to Christine Michael. I was buying him when I could use an end of draft pick on him. Now he’s sneaking into the 10th round. One thing that could make Michael valuable – the Dallas offensive line – could also work against him. That line could make Joseph Randle look good enough that Dallas never needs to go to Michael. Still, if you’re going to hope for an outcome for your end of draft guy, what’s happened with Michael is pretty much it. You would want a talented player who could be involved in a great offense, and where the options in front of him are really underwhelming. Incumbency is a big factor in the NFL, so I expect the Cowboys to give Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden a chance to fail. But based on the fact that they’re Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden, I’m willing to keep Michael stashed for a month to see what happens. He’s the ultimate lottery ticket. Note that I also don’t find very much value in the statements that go “Christine Michael couldn’t even beat out Robert Turbin and Seattle was willing to let Michael go for a conditional pick because they were going to cut him anyway.” If I thought that coaches always got talent evals right then I would be persuaded by that argument. Instead we see a pretty steady stream of instances where the coaching staff appears to have gotten the depth chart exactly precisely wrong. Also keep in mind that Seattle decided that Percy Harvin was worth about twice the amount of money that Golden Tate signed for last year. Even smart teams, like the team that drafted Kris Durham ahead of Richard Sherman, make talent evaluation mistakes. To be clear, it’s not great that Michael couldn’t beat out Turbin, but he also wouldn’t have been close to free if he had.
  • I wish that I had drafted Amari Cooper on every team.
  • I won’t be at all surprised if both my Brian Quick shares and Breshad Perriman shares are totally worthless. I actually kept buying Perriman through August because he kept getting cheaper. As it relates to Quick I’m going to be ready to pull the plug and send him to the waiver wire if he isn’t getting full snaps by Week 2.
  • I never paid very much for Terrence West (average 14th or 15th round pick) and I don’t really know what to expect now. We know that the TEN coaches aren’t excited by anybody that’s active on the roster right now. I guess that creates some opportunity for West. But it might just be a total mess you should avoid. I like West because his receiving ability and size do suggest that he could be an every down back if the right situation presented itself. But it’s also possible that he just totally sucks. At this point he’s a placeholder for a roster spot on my teams.
  • I got my shares of Danny Woodhead when he was in the ninth and tenth round. Both Woodhead and Kendall Wright got more expensive as August progressed. By this week there probably wasn’t much of a discount for either player. But I do wish I had drafted more Wright when I was taking Perriman in the ninth round.
  • These teams are all TE premium scoring and all but one of them has Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, or Jimmy Graham. One team has both Kelce and Gronk. I like all three because I feel like their usage situations should be pretty safe. They have a lot of safety baked in for that reason. As long as they’re healthy I expect them to return value.
  • It was an absolute steal when you could get Devante Parker in the 12th and 13th round. We didn’t know it at the time though because we also didn’t know he would be on track to play Week 1. I don’t expect him to get out to a hot start, but his competition for targets isn’t very formidable and MIA will run a lot of plays.
  • Isaiah Crowell‘s value should have increased with the Terrence West trade. But I was able to get him in the eighth round of a draft yesterday. The fact that the CLE coaches can no longer go to West creates a higher floor for Crowell. Some think that Duke Johnson will eventually take the job but keep in mind that what we know about Duke Johnson right now is this: he missed most of August with injuries, he says that he pretty much always has issues with his hamstrings, and Sports Injury Predictor rates him as 86 percent likely to miss time due to injury this year. I didn’t like drafting Crowell in the eighth when he was a member of a three headed attack. I don’t mind at all drafting the lead back of a two back committee in the eighth round.
  • I can’t even wait to look back on these shares in January and wonder what the hell I was thinking.
NAME % Owned
Alshon Jeffery 75%
Torrey Smith 75%
Amari Cooper 62%
Breshad Perriman 50%
Brian Quick 50%
Christine Michael 50%
DeAndre Hopkins 50%
Dion Lewis 50%
Khiry Robinson 50%
Terrance West 50%
CAR Team Defense 38%
Danny Woodhead 38%
DeVante Parker 38%
IND Team Defense 38%
Larry Fitzgerald 38%
Rob Gronkowski 38%
Travis Kelce 38%
Bishop Sankey 25%
Brandon Coleman 25%
Brandon Marshall 25%
Charles Clay 25%
David Johnson 25%
Dorial Green-Beckham 25%
Eric Decker 25%
Giovani Bernard 25%
Isaiah Crowell 25%
Jared Cook 25%
Jeremy Maclin 25%
Jerick McKinnon 25%
Jimmy Graham 25%
Kendall Wright 25%
Marcus Mariota 25%
Martavis Bryant 25%
Roy Helu 25%
Ty Montgomery 25%

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