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Kenny Golladay: New Starter, Late Round Flier?

Kenny Golladay was a RotoViz favorite in the 2017 NFL draft class and when he landed with the Lions, there was an expectation that he could emerge as a starter. You can imagine our excitement when a Detroit beat writer mentioned Golladay as a likely starter.

ESPN Lions reporter Michael Rothstein listed third-round WR Kenny Golladay as a starter in his pre-camp roster projection.

This projection from Rothstein only helps confirm what many expected after the draft, Golladay is the most likely replacement for Anquan Boldin in 2017.  Athletically, Golladay matches up well with Boldin.

Golladay Boldin Comp

Using the RotoViz Box Score Scout app, Golladay’s comparables include busts like Jaelen Strong and Devin Thomas, but a handful of exciting names, including Kenny Britt, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice, and Allen Robinson.

golladay compsCurrent RotoViz Projections have Golladay as the WR73 in PPR scoring. This is in large part because of Detroit’s consistently low usage of a third WR, however, that may be proven to be low if they employ their 2016 approach.

Over the five seasons prior to Boldin’s arrival, Detroit’s third WR has received an average of eight percent of the teams targets. In 2016, Boldin received over 16 percent of the team’s targets and finished as WR42 in PPR scoring with 173.4 points. The current projections from the RotoViz staff have Golladay in line for 109 PPR points.

PlayerYearTargetsReceptionsYardsTDsPPR
Anquan Boldin201695675848173.4
Kenny Golladay2017 (projection)68.2542.35485.623.35109.3

Even if the TD rate for Boldin is unsustainable to project for a rookie WR, the targets and receptions appear to be a plausible outcome. Removing four of Boldin’s TDs would give him a 149.4 PPR points. Based on current staff projections, that would rank as WR56.

KennyGolladayADP

According to the RotoViz Best Ball ADP app, Golladay is being as WR75 in redraft.  If Golladay can come close to replicating Boldin’s production, he could be a late-round value.  Despite this possibility, this news shouldn’t cause a significant change in Golladay’s ADP. Barring an injury ahead of him on the depth chart, his ceiling appears limited based on expected workload.

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