PGA DFS: The Masters Course Intro, Key Stats, Picks

The first major of the season is here with the Masters at the storied Augusta National Golf Club. The majors are the strongest field events with all the studs in play, and those options always make DraftKings lineup construction more interesting. This isn’t like the shootouts we have come accustomed to – the last five winners averaged 9.8 strokes under par – putting more emphasis on finishing position. Each birdie and eagle will be at a premium.

Key Statistics

 DDR(rank)DDS(stat)DARDASSGT2GRSGT2GSSGOTTRSGOTTSSGAPPRSGAPPSPROXRPROXS(")SGATGRSGATGSSGPUTTRSGPUTTSBOBRBOBSBARBAS
2017 Sergio Garcia -930301.97562.33121.21550.738540.285104435400.192168-0.3565421.061714.52
2016 Danny Willett -5288.362.020.8270.3560.2294270.2420.17220.93
2015 Jordan Spieth -1878291.88062.9141.583150.494110.6182640470.47190.571225.69313.13
2014 Bubba Watson -81314.310260.4771.40220.967470.32443418630.111109-0.05622.831014.31
2013 Adam Scott -923297.88461.8451.33720.134160.54849410770.055108-0.027282915.74
Average33298.8285.2561.91471.272860.5378320.400855.5418.846.750.214298.50.06222.522.627514.7514.425

As we view the stats of the last five winners1 – Danny Willett did not play enough rounds to qualify for a rank that year – we see that insane tee-to-green performance is key, with an average rank of No. 7. Driving distance is important, and we see that off-the-tee work is also the bigger factor from tee-to-green. Birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance also show as highly correlated statistics.

The Course

Weather: https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/augusta_daniel_field

Length: Par 72, 7,435

Greens: Bentgrass, fast

Course notes: Tree lined fairways, rough is pine needles, wind comes into play

Picks

$11.6K Dustin Johnson

I like paying up for the often overlooked D.J. It’s relatively easy in this tournament with the dearth of good value in the $7K range. Comparable players like Spieth, Day, and Rory are in better form and less expensive, so the herd should head that way. Johnson has performed well here in the past, and accurate distance combined with an elite approach game will get him there T2G and put him in a place to succeed. He should be chalk because he fits the course better than anyone in the field, but is projected at a far-too-low 15 percent.

$8.7K Bubba Watson

Watson has won here twice and has two wins already this year. He’s No. 1 in SGOTT in the last 12 rounds vs the field and 10th in SGT2G.

$8.5K Tommy Fleetwood

Fourth thus far T2G on tour in his limited rounds this year, Fleetwood has the tools to win. He’s long off the tee and straight as well. He fits the course well and is sliding under the radar.

$8K Adam Scott

Experience is important here and Scott has that, having seen the course over a dozen times with a win and a runner-up finish. Over the past 12 rounds vs the field, he’s seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green.

$7.8K Henrik Stenson

This price makes no sense. A top-15 golfer in the world at $7.8K is ridiculous. I expect him to be chalk with odds to win of 40-1 in a price range of players who are 60-1 or worse.

$7.6K Matt Kuchar

Kuchar has four finishes of eighth or better in his last six tries at Augusta, and he’s rounding into form T2G.

$7.6 Patrick Cantlay

Cantley competed last year vs strong fields and can hang tee-to-green with the best of them, finishing 14th on tour last year in SGT2G at 1.111 per round.

$7.4K Tony Finau

I’ve faded Tony Finau many a time because of his constant high ownership, but, when I see him projected at 10 percent, I love him at this price. One of the best T2G players on tour, long with the driver, and one of the most prolific DK scorers in golf.

  1. In the year that they won  (back)