When playing fantasy, sometimes you target players who are real-life superstars and other times, you find the value amidst the rest. Ryan Tannehill has the potential to be a fantasy football gem in the late rounds despite playing on a team projected to finish near the bottom of the league.
Whether it’s because he’s returning from an injury that cost him his 2017 season or the loss of his primary receiving weapon, Tannehill has gone largely unnoticed, and he’s typically available late in best-ball drafts.
Average Draft Position
According to the RotoViz MFL10 ADP app, Tannehill currently has an ADP of 202.45 which ranks him as the QB28 in drafts.
Compared to early drafts, Tannehill’s ADP has been steadily rising which should be expected based on his team’s decision to not bring in any additional QB competition via free agency or the NFL draft. However, his ADP still is in line with others who have significant competition both in the short and long term.
Tannehill will open the season without his most targeted receiver, Jarvis Landry. Since joining the league, Tannehill has targeted Landry 387 times. While he’s not Tannehill’s most efficient receiver, Landry has been a consistent option.
There are some questions about the team’s offseason decisions, but they made a concerted effort to replace Landry’s production. Between Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, they should have at least one short-yardage WR with consistent hands on the field most of the time.
It’s Okay to Be Losing
The losses of Landry, Ndomukong Suh, and Mike Pouncey raise legitimate questions about how good the Dolphins will be in 2018. Coming off of a six-win season, there’s reason to believe that the Dolphins could be an even worse team, but that doesn’t immediately hurt Tannehill’s fantasy opportunities. Per Scott Barrett, in 2017, Miami was second in the league in pass percentage when trailing.
And the team’s history of passing significantly more when trailing goes beyond just last season. Since joining the league, Tannehill has averaged seven extra passes per game when the team lost.1
Tannehill’s overall efficiency is likely to continue to suffer when the team is struggling, but if the Dolphins maintain a similar offensive pace and have nearly 1,000 total offensive plays, Tannehill could be among the league leaders in total pass attempts. If Tannehill can take advantage of late-game scoring in blowout losses, he could find himself in a similar position to Blake Bortles in 2015. As a 16th-round pick, that could make him a league-winning selection.
- And though he also threw for more yards in those games, he was, predictably, far less efficient. (back)