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Game Level Similarity Projections : Quarterback Week 2

Just like that, we are into Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season. I’m here with GLSP data from Dave Caban to identify quarterbacks that could be in line for a big week ahead, as well as some to avoid.

It should be remembered that we are very early in the season. As a result, we will not have enough data to generate highly accurate projections for many players such as rookies and veterans returning from long-term injury. Once hit Week 4, a quarter of the way through the season, we should have solid numbers for all. So please consider this when viewing the numbers below.

Andrew LuckINDWAS15.322.131.423.2
Ben RoethlisbergerPITKC16.822.32923.1
Philip RiversLACBUF16232922.9
Russell WilsonSEACHI15.922.130.122.9
Matthew StaffordDETSF17.421.826.522.2
Cam NewtonCARATL15.321.228.721.6
Jared GoffLARARI16.620.426.621.1
Alex SmithWASIND14.819.925.920.6
Blake BortlesJAXNE15.619.826.620.5
Drew BreesNOCLE10.318.225.718.4
Ryan FitzpatrickTBPHI15.818.32018.3
Andy DaltonCINBAL11.918.623.318.1
Case KeenumDENOAK14.216.322.817.8
Kirk CousinsMINGB13.318.222.517.6
Aaron RodgersGBMIN10.617.620.316.5
Matt RyanATLCAR13.516.118.916.5
Tom BradyNEJAX9.516.221.816.4
Marcus MariotaTENHOU12.416.319.416.3
Jimmy GaroppoloSFDET9.215.821.316.2
Dak PrescottDALNYG10.616.319.615.8
Tyrod TaylorCLENO11.716.61915.5
Eli ManningNYGDAL10.714.818.414.4
Derek CarrOAKDEN1013.917.214.3
Deshaun WatsonHOUTEN10.413.518.814.2
Joe FlaccoBALCIN5.
Mitch TrubiskyCHISEA7.211.816.511.8
Nick FolesPHITB2.
Sam BradfordARILAR0.
Patrick MahomesKCPIT00.52.81.9
Nathan PetermanBUFLAC00.71.31

Pleasantly Surprising

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Ben Roethlisberger PIT KC 16.8 22.3 29 23.1

Despite a mostly miserable Week 1, the GLSP for Ben Roethlisberger expects a bounceback against the Kansas City Chiefs. His median projection would have been good for QB7 in Week 1. Andrew Luck, at 31.4, is the only QB with a higher ceiling this week. This is, of course, dependent on the John Wayne of the NFL playing through his latest ailment, in this case, an elbow injury.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Blake Bortles JAX NE 15.6 19.8 26.6 20.5

Blake Bortles was better than Roethlisberger in Week 1 but was assisted by 42 rushing yards. His 15.6-point floor is the fifth highest of the week, with his ceiling up there among the best of them in Week 2. In the most recent game played by the Patriots, they allowed Deshaun Watson to amass a mere 176 passing yards, but rush for 40 yards. As already mentioned, Bortles managed 42 yards in his last game … while passing for 176 yards. Owned in just 11.5 percent of ESPN leagues, Bortles could be a streaming option in deep leagues or an intriguing second QB in superflex leagues.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jared Goff LAR ARI 16.6 20.4 26.6 21.1

Jared Goff is not as readily available as Bortles, finding himself rostered in 65.4 percent of leagues. But his GLSP does offer encouragement that he could be plugged in with a great deal of confidence this week. His projections in the low, median and high range are all among the highest of the week.

Look Elsewhere, if You Can

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Aaron Rodgers GB MIN 10.6 17.6 20.3 16.5

It would usually take either a fool or a hero to consider not starting Aaron Rodgers, assuming he is healthy. That is an assumption that cannot be made this week, however. He projects as a mid-tier QB2 across all three categories.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Tom Brady NE JAX 9.5 16.2 21.8 16.4

If only the brave or foolish would consider ignoring Rodgers, then the same statement can be made for Tom Brady. But like Rodgers, his Week 2 numbers are far from earth-shattering. Given his comparative health, he is a more likely candidate than Rodgers to outperform his projections. He is Tom Brady, after all.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Tyrod Taylor CLE NO 11.7 16.6 19 15.5

As we stand, Tyrod Taylor is the QB6 in fantasy. He achieved this lofty position in no small part due to his 77 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 1. His GLSP offers some hope that he could be a decent floor play in Week 2, but his ceiling is nothing to get excited about. Still, that Konami code appeal he offers as a rusher makes him a tempting streamer. Taylor can be had in nearly 60 percent of ESPN leagues.

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