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Game Level Similarity Quarterback Projections: More FitzMagic in Week 3?

Week 3 is upon us, and once again I’m here with GLSP data from Dave Caban to identify quarterbacks who could be in line for a big week, as well as three instances where you should steer clear.

Keep in mind that the relative lack of information will make the projections less accurate for rookies and veterans returning from long-term injury. After Week 4, a quarter of the way through the season, we should have solid numbers for all.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Ryan FitzpatrickTBPIT15.324.831.722.3
Philip RiversLACLAR16.221.63022.1
Matthew StaffordDETNE16.821.728.521.6
Blake BortlesJAXTEN16.520.827.221.4
Aaron RodgersGBWAS1522.729.221.2
Russell WilsonSEADAL14.718.824.920.6
Ryan TannehillMIAOAK14.618.625.820.5
Patrick MahomesKCSF12.5212920.3
Cam NewtonCARCIN13.719.526.720.1
Jared GoffLARLAC14.418.524.919.7
Drew BreesNOATL12.617.825.819.5
Andrew LuckINDPHI13.6192619.4
Andy DaltonCINCAR14.318.625.119.3
Deshaun WatsonHOUNYG13.618.325.219.3
Case KeenumDENBAL14.618.424.619.2
Ben RoethlisbergerPITTB13.417.723.918.6
Tom BradyNEDET13.118.523.118.3
Kirk CousinsMINBUF1318.222.617.9
Jimmy GaroppoloSFKC11.916.721.817.3
Alex SmithWASGB12.817.520.616.9
Joe FlaccoBALDEN10.916.322.516.6
Tyrod TaylorCLENYJ11.816.920.915.9
Matt RyanATLNO13.216.118.815.7
Marcus MariotaTENJAX11.215.919.115.4
Mitch TrubiskyCHIARI9.514.419.915.3
Derek CarrOAKMIA11.61518.915.1
Dak PrescottDALSEA11.215.119.614.9
Sam DarnoldNYJCLE10.413.516.514
Eli ManningNYGHOU8.613.716.512.9
Nick FolesPHIIND6.710.615.611.4
Josh AllenBUFMIN6.910.813.811.2
Blaine GabbertTENJAX3.97.811.28.5
Sam BradfordARICHI00.11.10.9

The Big Guns

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Ryan Fitzpatrick TB PIT 15.3 24.8 31.7 22.3

The hottest QB in the NFL right now, Ryan Fitzpatrick holds incredibly favorably projections heading into Week 3. The Steelers defense has been one to attack in the early stages of the fantasy season, and Fitzpatrick’s ceiling is sky high.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Matthew Stafford DET NE 16.8 21.7 28.5 21.6

After a lackluster Week 1 outing, Matthew Stafford was much closer to his usual self in Week 2. The Lions take on the Patriots in Week 3, and the numbers for Stafford are encouraging. He has the highest floor and the fifth-highest ceiling.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Patrick Mahomes KC SF 12.5 21 29 20.3

Everyone loves Patrick Mahomes, and the GLSP is no exception. His floor projection is nothing to get too excited about, but his median and high results more than make up for that.

The Pea Shooters

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Eli Manning NYG HOU 8.6 13.7 16.5 12.9

It should come as no surprise to anyone that Eli Manning is a QB to avoid. The gap between his floor and his ceiling is small, but the projections themselves are so poor that no one should be the least bit interested.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Matt Ryan ATL NO 13.2 16.1 18.8 15.7

Matt Ryan has yo-yo’d between pretty ordinary and downright prolific through two weeks of the season. He projects as a mid-range QB2 at his floor, but his ceiling is one of the lowest in the NFL. Of course, the projections assume the Saints defense is closer to what we saw last season and in Week 2, and less like the unit that imploded against Fitzpatrick.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Mitch Trubisky CHI ARI 9.5 14.4 19.9 15.3

The second-year breakout many hoped for Mitch Trubisky hasn’t happened yet, and the GLSP doesn’t anticipate it starting in Week 3. The Cardinals have been pathetic so far in 2018, but that doesn’t mean you can trust Trubisky against them.

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