Game Level Similarity Projections : Tight End Week 2

It’s time once again for fantasy players to begin making the tough choices regarding which players they will sit, and which they will start. To help with these decisions, I will be using Dave Caban’s Game Level Similarity Projections to identify tight ends that could be in line for a big week ahead, as well as some to avoid.

It should be remembered that we are very early in the season. As a result, we will not have enough data to generate a highly accurate projection for rookies and veterans returning from long-term injury. Once we hit Week 4, a quarter of the way through the season, we should have solid numbers for all. So please consider this when viewing the numbers below.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Rob GronkowskiNEJAX1118.524.517.5
Travis KelceKCPIT1118.52317
Zach ErtzPHITB91519.514.5
Jack DoyleINDWAS8.512.51714
Benjamin WatsonNOCLE7141914
Delanie WalkerTENHOU9141613.5
Eric EbronINDWAS7.512.51612.5
Greg OlsenCARATL6.5101412
George KittleSFDET5.5914.511
Evan EngramNYGDAL59.513.510
Jordan ReedWASIND56.99.98.072
Charles ClayBUFLAC3.57.510.58
Antonio GatesLACBUF48118
Tyler KroftCINBAL47118
Kyle RudolphMINGB26127
Cameron BrateTBPHI2.55.59.56.5
Vernon DavisWASIND247.56
Jimmy GrahamGBMIN1.558.55.5
OJ HowardTBPHI1385
Jesse JamesPITKC23.564.5
Trey BurtonCHISEA1284
Austin HooperATLCAR1.53.554
Tyler EifertCINBAL1.93.14.43.632
Ricky Seals-JonesARILAR0.5463.5
David NjokuCLENO124.53.5
Jared CookOAKDEN1.5343.5
Luke WillsonDETSF0153
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXNE12.53.52.5
Nick BoyleBALCIN023.52.5
AJ DerbyMIANYJ0132
Tyler HigbeeLARARI012.51.5
Jonnu SmithTENHOU0131.5
Gerald EverettLARARI012.51.5
Mike GesickiMIANYJ01.21.81.18
Virgil GreenLACBUF011.51

Pleasant Surprises

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Benjamin Watson NO CLE 11 7.3 13.3 18.3

Benjamin Watson was a TE1 last week, despite only posting 8.4 PPR points. I mentioned last week that I wasn’t too enthused about his matchup against the Buccaneers. I and the GLSP hold no such fears this week as the Saints take on the Browns. Watson has one of the highest ceilings of all TEs in Week 2. After injuries to both Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker in Week 1, Watson offers tantalizing upside as a streamer. He is available in nearly 65 percent of ESPN leagues.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
George Kittle SF DET 5.5 9 14.5 11

George Kittle is still available in a ridiculous number of leagues at the time of writing, almost 62 percent on ESPN. His Week 1 performance is reason enough for this to change, as are his GLSP numbers for Week 2. All of his projections see him among the top ten TEs for the week ahead.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jared Cook OAK DEN 1.5 3 4 3.5

The GLSP for Jared Cook is not encouraging, but I believe that he has a chance to smash these lowly expectations. Cook was the Raiders offense in Week 1, while the Broncos allowed 116 yards on seven receptions to glorified blockers Will Dissly and Nick Vannett last week.

Danger! Beware!

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jimmy Graham GB MIN 1.5 5 8.5 5.5

Tight ends do not tend to enjoy themselves too much against the Vikings, but Jimmy Graham would still be someone to avoid this week. His days as a seam stretcher are long gone, and his debut for the Packers was far from encouraging. He reeled in just two of his four targets for a measly eight yards.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jesse James PIT KC 2 3.5 6 4.5

Jesse James stepped in for Vance McDonald last week and posted TE6 figures … with three catches for 60 yards. His GLSP offers a nonexistent floor and a ceiling not worth getting excited about in the slightest.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Tyler Eifert CIN BAL 1.9 3.1 4.4 3.6

Tyler Eifert led all Bengals TEs in targets, receptions, and yards in Week 1. But three catches for 44 yards does not become a wonderful stat line just because your teammates only caught two balls between them. Still far from fully fit, Eifert would need a touchdown to smash his projections this week. The Ravens are rarely so accommodating to TEs, however.