Game Level Similarity Projections : Tight End Week 3

To help with the difficult start and sit decisions at the tight end spot, I will be using Dave Caban’s Game Level Similarity Projections to identify players that you could plug in this week, as well as three that the numbers suggest staying well clear of.

The season is still in its infancy. As a result, we will not have enough data to generate a highly accurate projection for first-year players, or for players who had an injury-hit 2017 season. Once we hit the first quarter pole of the season, we should have solid numbers for all. So please consider this when viewing the numbers below.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Rob GronkowskiNEDET91421.315.3
Will DisslySEADAL8112215
Travis KelceKCSF1015.718.714.7
Zach ErtzPHIIND913.718.314
Eric EbronINDPHI8.712.317.713.3
Jordan ReedWASGB7111813
Jesse JamesPITTB7.711.315.712
OJ HowardTBPIT6111611
Mark AndrewsBALDEN6101511
Delanie WalkerTENJAX6.31014.711
Evan EngramNYGHOU79.713.311
Kyle RudolphMINBUF5.79.71610.3
George KittleSFKC6.7913.710.3
Jared CookOAKMIA5.38.314.710
Trey BurtonCHIARI5.38.7139.7
Benjamin WatsonNOATL68.313.39.7
Greg OlsenCARCIN48129
Austin HooperATLNO4.77.312.38.7
Vance McDonaldPITTB3811.38.3
Garrett CelekSFKC3.76.311.38
Jake ButtDENBAL45128
Jacob HollisterNEDET47108
Charles ClayBUFMIN5710.38
Jimmy GrahamGBWAS3.7710.77.7
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXTEN3.76.3107.7
Jack DoyleINDPHI4.36.311.37.7
Chris Herndon IVNYJCLE46107
Ricky Seals-JonesARICHI35.37.76.7
David NjokuCLENYJ358.36.3
Tyler EifertCINCAR2696
Virgil GreenLACLAR36106
Nick BoyleBALDEN34.385.7
Jordan AkinsHOUNYG2575
Luke StockerTENJAX3465
AJ DerbyMIAOAK0.73.36.74.3
David MorganMINBUF23.76.74.3
Michael RobertsDETNE23.764.3
Maxx WilliamsBALDEN2.73.354.3
Logan ThomasBUFMIN1354
Darren FellsCLENYJ2464
Antonio GatesLACLAR2454
Eric TomlinsonNYJCLE0.725.73.7
CJ UzomahCINCAR0.72.753.3
Tyler HigbeeLARLAC1.32.34.73.3
Joshua PerkinsPHIIND0001

PLUG THEM IN

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Eric Ebron IND PHI 8.7 12.3 17.7 13.3

Eric Ebron is not seeing the field as often as his stablemate Jack Doyle, but he is making a little fantasy noise all on his own with touchdowns in each of the seasons first two games. The Eagles have only allowed nine receptions to TEs so far, but they were burned for a big touchdown by O.J. Howard last week. Ebron probably needs to find the end zone to reach his ceiling.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jesse James PIT TB 7.7 11.3 15.7 12

Jesse James, while not exactly commanding a huge market share, is making the most of his opportunities so far in 2018. His floor and median projections are among the highest, even if his ceiling isn’t particularly noteworthy.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
OJ Howard TB PIT 6 11 16 11

In the same game as James, Howard offers a safe floor for his owners, though doesn’t exactly threaten to blow the doors off anyone’s roof with his high-end projection. Howard has 150 receiving yards in 2018, but exactly half of them came on one reception.

SHUT THEM DOWN

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Vance McDonald PIT TB 3 8 11.3 8.3

As much as the GLSP likes Jesse James, it has very little good to say about Vance McDonald. If for whatever reason you are torn between the two Steelers TEs, the projections would favor siding with James.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Ricky Seals-Jones ARI CHI 3 5.3 7.7 6.7

The breakout for Ricky Seals-Jones hasn’t happened yet, mired as he is on one of the NFL’s most putrid offenses. His projections offer no floor to speak of and a ceiling that will help practically nobody in Week 3.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Jimmy Graham GB WAS 3.7 7 10.7 7.7

It may be a tad unfair to say that Jimmy Graham is just the latest big name TE to fade out as soon as he landed with the Packers. But, without the healthy dose of red-zone work that propped him up in Seattle last season, he hasn’t been much of a factor so far in 2018. Washington is a team that historically gives up points to TEs, but it’s hard to love Graham here.