To help with the difficult start and sit decisions at the tight end spot, I will be using Dave Caban’s Game Level Similarity Projections to identify players that you could plug in this week, as well as three that the numbers suggest staying well clear of.
The season is still in its infancy. As a result, we will not have enough data to generate a highly accurate projection for first-year players, or for players who had an injury-hit 2017 season. Once we hit the first quarter pole of the season, we should have solid numbers for all. So please consider this when viewing the numbers below.
|Chris Herndon IV||NYJ||CLE||4||6||10||7|
PLUG THEM IN
Eric Ebron is not seeing the field as often as his stablemate Jack Doyle, but he is making a little fantasy noise all on his own with touchdowns in each of the seasons first two games. The Eagles have only allowed nine receptions to TEs so far, but they were burned for a big touchdown by O.J. Howard last week. Ebron probably needs to find the end zone to reach his ceiling.
Jesse James, while not exactly commanding a huge market share, is making the most of his opportunities so far in 2018. His floor and median projections are among the highest, even if his ceiling isn’t particularly noteworthy.
In the same game as James, Howard offers a safe floor for his owners, though doesn’t exactly threaten to blow the doors off anyone’s roof with his high-end projection. Howard has 150 receiving yards in 2018, but exactly half of them came on one reception.
SHUT THEM DOWN
As much as the GLSP likes Jesse James, it has very little good to say about Vance McDonald. If for whatever reason you are torn between the two Steelers TEs, the projections would favor siding with James.
The breakout for Ricky Seals-Jones hasn’t happened yet, mired as he is on one of the NFL’s most putrid offenses. His projections offer no floor to speak of and a ceiling that will help practically nobody in Week 3.
It may be a tad unfair to say that Jimmy Graham is just the latest big name TE to fade out as soon as he landed with the Packers. But, without the healthy dose of red-zone work that propped him up in Seattle last season, he hasn’t been much of a factor so far in 2018. Washington is a team that historically gives up points to TEs, but it’s hard to love Graham here.