Game Level Similarity Projections : Tight End Week 4

It’s Week 4 folks, as unbelievable as it seems. I am back once again with GLSP data from the mensch Dave Caban to identify tight ends to target this week, as well as those to stay far away from.

But first, a public service announcement. In order to obtain the most accurate projections, Dave is running the models three times, looking back eight weeks, six weeks and then three weeks, before averaging the results. This means rookies who are playing well will be somewhat over-projected, especially when compared to some second-year players who saw limited usage last year, and whose results may be weighed down by their bad games from last season.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG
Travis KelceKCDEN12.3162016.7
Zach ErtzPHITEN912.717.713.7
Eric EbronINDHOU8.311.715.711.7
Evan EngramNYGNO812.31712.3
Jack DoyleINDHOU7.711.715.311.3
Rob GronkowskiNEMIA7.311.316.312.7
George KittleSFLAC711.715.711.3
OJ HowardTBCHI610.31711.3
Tyler EifertCINATL6101411
Jared CookOAKCLE69.31310
Benjamin WatsonNONYG5.39.314.310.3
Charles ClayBUFGB5.38.712.39.3
Mark AndrewsBALPIT5101410
Jesse JamesPITBAL5812.39.3
Jake ButtDENKC57128
Will DisslySEAARI57119
Kyle RudolphMINLAR4.39128.7
Jimmy GrahamGBBUF4.37128
Trey BurtonCHITB4.3811.38.7
Austin HooperATLCIN4710.77.7
David NjokuCLEOAK3.35.7107
Rhett EllisonNYGNO3713.38.7
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXNYJ35.310.37.3
Nick BoyleBALPIT35.396.3
Garrett CelekSFLAC36.78.77.3
Virgil GreenLACSF3486
AJ DerbyMIANE2.74.78.35.7
CJ UzomahCINATL2.34.79.35.7
Ricky Seals-JonesARISEA24.775.3
Joshua PerkinsPHITEN2565
Antonio GatesLACSF2464
Maxx WilliamsBALPIT1.32.754.3
Dallas GoedertPHITEN1.324.74
Jordan AkinsHOUIND1364
Nick VannettSEAARI13.554
Luke StockerTENPHI1354
Jason CroomBUFGB12.553.5
Ryan GriffinHOUIND1253.5
Geoff SwaimDALDET123.53
Jordan ThomasHOUIND0.5153
Tyler HigbeeLARMIN0.3263.7

Get Them In

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Tyler Eifert CIN ATL 6 10 14 11

Dare we dream that Tyler Eifert could once again be fantasy relevant? The numbers don’t suggest a huge week for Eifert, but his average does project as a top-10 option at fantasy football’s most volatile position.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Mark Andrews BAL PIT 5 10 14 10

If you were to describe Mark Andrews’ start to the season, in terms of his usage, you could use the word consistent. He has had at least two catches in all three games, including one for a touchdown in Week 2. His GLSP doesn’t offer much of a floor, but he’s up in the top 10 in terms of ceiling, while his average makes hime a low-end TE1.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
OJ Howard TB CHI 6 10.3 17 11.3

O.J. Howard has at least 54 yards in all three games this season, and along with his quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick he finds himself once again as a player the GLSP really likes this week. The Bears have allowed a touchdown reception to a TE in back to back games in 2018.

Get Them Out

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Ricky Seals-Jones ARI SEA 2 4.7 7 5.3

A Week 3 touchdown does little to disguise the fact that Ricky Seals-Jones’ much anticipated 2018 season has gotten off to a less than exciting start. The projections don’t take into account the fact that he’ll be playing with a rookie QB making his first start on Sunday, but they’re still pretty ugly.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAX NYJ 3 5.3 10.3 7.3

The Austin Seferian-Jenkins revenge game against the Jets doesn’t look like one that is worth paying too much attention too. His ceiling, according to the projections, is that of a back-end TE2.

Player Team Opp Low Med High AVG
Trey Burton CHI TB 4.3 8 11.3 8.7

If people have been disappointed about Seals-Jones failing to live up to preseason hype, one can only assume that they are positively deflated about Trey Burton. Nine catches in three games is hardly what people signed up for. With serious question marks surrounding the development (or lack thereof) of Mitch Trubisky, most Chicago skill players are facing a decrease in value. Burton is no exception.