Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.
GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers.
The GLSP app is available here for a look at all of this week’s projections.
Surprisingly Strong Projections
Odell Beckham Jr. checks in with the highest ceiling this week at 32 PPR points. Beckham silenced any doubts about his return to health and showed how high his floor is with an impressive 22 PPR point Week 1 performance versus the best defense in the league. The only thing potentially holding Beckham back is his quarterback, but get used to extravagant projections from the elite wide receiver going forward. His matchup this week versus a Dallas defense that allowed the sixth-most points to wide receivers last year is mouthwatering for Beckham owners.
The Pittsburgh wide receivers are set up to dominate versus a porous Kansas City secondary that surrendered the second most fantasy points to wide receivers last year and 48 PPR points to wide receivers last week. Antonio Brown sits just below Beckham. More noteworthy is that if you filter out the beginning games of his career, the model loves Juju Smith-Schuster and gives him the sixth-highest ceiling this week. Smith-Schuster, who had the highest fantasy points over expectation per attempt last year out of all wide receivers, was a discussion point in the Week 1 GLSP WR article and backed up his projection with a strong Week 1 outing. Smith-Schuster will continue to be one of the most interesting players to follow this year.
A surprise near the top is Jarvis Landry. Landry’s evolved air yards profile, which you can read more about in this week’s Buy Low Report, has raised his ceiling significantly and suggests he will produce at a top-10 level consistently. Landry gets a New Orleans secondary this week that just got shredded by Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Tyreek Hill also slots in among the slew of regular WR1s this week. Like Landry, Hill’s profile is trending upwards as he is the perfect complement to cannon-armed overall QB1 candidate Patrick Mahomes. Get used to him and Landry poking into the elite wide-receiver range this year.
Multiple ancillary receivers make for strong starts this week. Mike Wallace and Sterling Shepard have strong ceilings facing soft matchups, and Chris Godwin comes with a high ceiling that grows even higher if DeSean Jackson sits out. The RotoViz Screener shows that Godwin has averaged an impressive 15.1 PPR points in games in which he has more than five targets.
Monitor Jackson’s shoulder and concussion status throughout the week, but feel confident in Godwin either way.
Quincy Enunwa is another Buy Low Report favorite whose volume the model must love. Enunwa has a 13 point median and 20 point ceiling for Week 2. Owners would be hard-pressed to bench Enunwa after his performance last week and his ensuing projection.
Bruce Ellington is a fun start candidate if Will Fuller is out again. In the six games in his career that he has received five or more targets, Ellington has produced low-end starter quality production.
Filtering the GLSP App to screen only Ellington’s games of five or more targets provides a decent projection for him this week:
Consider Ellington if you are in a pinch at wide receiver.
Robby Anderson was a favorite of the model last week but has just a six-point floor against Miami. Proceed with caution if starting Anderson this week after rookie Sam Darnold looked his way only once last Monday night. It appears it may take some time for the talented Anderson to develop chemistry with his new quarterback.
A popular breakout candidate due to New England’s myriad of pass-catcher injuries was Chris Hogan. Hogan failed to produce after receiving only five targets in a strong matchup versus Houston and is now handed the daunting Jacksonville secondary this week. Appropriately, the model gives him a sub-five point floor.
Despite a 26 PPR point performance last week, Kenny Stills comes with a low floor. Stills should still be in lineups, though, as he profiles as a boom-bust candidate on a weekly basis whose splits without DeVante Parker suggest he is likely underprojected.
Temper expectations for Davante Adams. Adams comes with a low floor that does not even account for the possibility that DeShone Kizer might be his quarterback versus an elite Minnesota defense. Adams performed admirably with Brett Hundley at the helm last year, but he is a bench candidate if Kizer gets the go this week.