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Game Level Similarity Projections : Wide Receivers Week 3

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups.

GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.

Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 3 WR GLSP projections are included below.

RnkPlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGPOS 
1Antonio BrownPITTB1722.72722.3WR
2Juju Smith-SchusterPITTB1721.726.722WR
3T.Y. HiltonINDPHI16182821WR
4Julio JonesATLNO14.32025.721WR
5Tyreek HillKCSF15.320.325.320WR
6Keenan AllenLACLAR13202620WR
7Keelan ColeJAXTEN13.317.72419.3WR
8Quincy EnunwaNYJCLE12172619WR
9Stefon DiggsMINBUF14.318.723.318.7WR
10DeAndre HopkinsHOUNYG12.717.724.318.7WR
11Michael ThomasNOATL13172318.3WR
12Davante AdamsGBWAS13.317.322.717.7WR
13Golden TateDETNE13.317.322.317.7WR
14Jarvis LandryCLENYJ1117.32217WR
15Mike EvansTBPIT1116.720.717WR
16Larry FitzgeraldARICHI11.71621.316.7WR
17Cooper KuppLARLAC10.71721.316.7WR
18Odell Beckham JrNYGHOU11152016WR
19Marvin JonesDETNE11.3162115.7WR
20Adam ThielenMINBUF11.3162015.7WR
21Chris GodwinTBPIT9.314.720.715.7WR
22Brandin CooksLARLAC8.315.720.715.3WR
23John BrownBALDEN10.314.720.315WR
24Nelson AgholorPHIIND10.313.71815WR
25Kenny GolladayDETNE9.71419.314.7WR
26Robert WoodsLARLAC10.3131613.3WR
27Michael CrabtreeBALDEN812.31613.3WR
28DeSean JacksonTBPIT91216.713WR
29Dede WestbrookJAXTEN8.31317.313WR
30Demaryius ThomasDENBAL81217.713WR
31AJ GreenCINCAR81215.713WR
32Randall CobbGBWAS8.71217.712.7WR
33Sammy WatkinsKCSF7.312.315.712.7WR
34Jamison CrowderWASGB711.71512.7WR
35Devin FunchessCARCIN6.71216.712.7WR
36Sterling ShepardNYGHOU811.315.312.3WR
37Albert WilsonMIAOAK6.712.316.712.3WR
38Brandon MarshallSEADAL9121612WR
39Emmanuel SandersDENBAL6.710.71511.3WR
40Tyler BoydCINCAR5.710.315.311.3WR
41Antonio CallawayCLENYJ491611WR
42Mohamed SanuATLNO7.31013.310.7WR
43Paul RichardsonWASGB5.38.313.310.7WR
44Will FullerHOUNYG7.79.312.710.3WR
45Josh GordonCLENYJ5.78.714.310.3WR
46Amari CooperOAKMIA57.714.710.3WR
47Mike WilliamsLACLAR791410WR
48Robby AndersonNYJCLE5.79.31410WR
49Pierre GarconSFKC5101410WR
50Martavis BryantOAKMIA5913.710WR
51Kenny StillsMIAOAK5.7911.79.7WR
52Ted GinnNOATL5.78.311.79.7WR
53Adam HumphriesTBPIT4.77.3149.3WR
54Tyler LockettSEADAL4.78.7129.3WR
55Tyrell WilliamsLACLAR57139WR
56Ryan GrantINDPHI4.78.312.79WR
57Cole BeasleyDALSEA4.3812.79WR
58Kelvin BenjaminBUFMIN57.710.78.7WR
59Geronimo AllisonGBWAS4.37.311.38.7WR
60Seth RobertsOAKMIA4811.78.7WR
61Torrey SmithCARCIN3.7712.78.7WR
62Willie SneadBALDEN57108.3WR
63Cody LatimerNYGHOU4.3711.38WR
64Jakeem GrantMIAOAK48.310.78WR
65Josh DoctsonWASGB46.39.78WR
66Taywan TaylorTENJAX36128WR
67Deonte ThompsonDALSEA3.75.310.37.7WR
68Kendrick BourneSFKC3.7610.77.3WR
69Jarius WrightCARCIN3.36.310.77.3WR
70Danny AmendolaMIAOAK3.36.7107.3WR
71Chester RogersINDPHI468.37WR
72Chris HoganNEDET3.3610.77WR
73James WashingtonPITTB34107WR
74D.J. MooreCARCIN24107WR
75Allen RobinsonCHIARI1.34.3117WR
76Rashard HigginsCLENYJ2.759.76.3WR
77Donte MoncriefJAXTEN24.78.76.3WR
78Christian KirkARICHI3696WR
79Tavon AustinDALSEA2.74.79.36WR
80Taylor GabrielCHIARI2.7586WR
81Jordy NelsonOAKMIA2.34.7106WR
82Corey DavisTENJAX2.74.385.7WR
83Laquon TreadwellMINBUF2.35.38.75.7WR
84Demarcus RobinsonKCSF2.73.785.3WR
85Bruce EllingtonHOUNYG24.785.3WR
86Andre HolmesBUFMIN2475WR
87Calvin RidleyATLNO1.33.375WR
88Zay JonesBUFMIN1.7464.7WR
89De'Anthony ThomasKCSF1.32.764.7WR
90Cordarrelle PattersonNEDET1.33.36.34.3WR
91Chris ConleyKCSF12.76.34.3WR
92Kamar AikenPHIIND1.72.344WR
93Courtland SuttonDENBAL1374WR
94Terrelle PryorNYJCLE0284WR
95Marvin HallATLNO0.31.76.73.7WR
96Phillip DorsettNEDET1243WR
97Dante PettisSFKC0143WR
98Travis BenjaminLACLAR0233WR
99John RossCINCAR0.71.73.72.7WR
100Tajae SharpeTENJAX0.713.72.3WR

These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Juju Smith-Schuster is now a talking point of this column for the third straight week.

If Pittsburgh’s defense continues to perform so poorly, Smith-Schuster will be a top-10 wide receiver despite being second-in-line behind Antonio Brown. The most pertinent speed bump in Smith-Schuster’s path to finishing as a WR1 is the late season return of Le’Veon Bell. James Conner has been admirable in Bell’s stead, but Conner has garnered a ten percent target market share compared to Bell’s 17 percent target share the last two years. Conner’s usage appears to mirror Bell’s, so it is possible this market share discrepancy is the result of a small two-game sample as well as Conner coming out for a few drives after getting banged up last game, but it should still be noted. Continue to consider Smith-Schuster an elite option at wide receiver.

T.Y. Hilton has the third highest average projection and highest upside projection this week. Hilton should be locked into starting lineups, but I do think this projection is overshot because it fails to account for Hilton’s uncharacteristic usage this year.

Year(s)

Hilton aDOT

Hilton Air Yards / Game

2013-2017

12.68

107.30

2018

8.20

90.00

It is yet to be seen if Andrew Luck’s new dink-and-dunk style of play is him working his shoulder back into shape or if it is here to stay. Indianapolis has made a conscious effort to integrate Hilton into their new closer to the line of scrimmage playcalling, which is a positive sign that Hilton’s mid to high twenties target market share is safe. As it stands relative to his career, though, Hilton’s upside is capped because of fewer splash play opportunities.

Keelan Cole stands out as a surprise top-10 candidate by the model this week. Cole was dominant in both volume and efficiency to end last season, but his projection is questionable given Jacksonville’s wide receiver usage the first two weeks.

Player

Target Share

Market Share Air

Weighted Opportunity Rating

aDOT

RACR

PPR

Keelan Cole

0.15

0.23

0.38

10.7

1.33

33.0

Dede Westbrook

0.15

0.15

0.33

7.2

1.48

28.1

Donte Moncrief

0.19

0.39

0.55

14.6

0.22

15.8

Cole’s RACR relative to his aDOT suggests he is Jacksonville’s most talented wide receiver and that he should certainly be receiving a higher target share than the woefully inefficient 0.22 RACR Donte Moncrief. But, until that volume adjustment is realized, it cannot be ignored that Cole’s fantasy output is capped in Jacksonville’s wide-receiver-by-committee approach.

The takeaway from the model’s projection is that Cole should not be on your bench, but consider him a high-end WR3 in a positive matchup, not the WR1 that GLSP is projecting.

Quincy Enunwa impressed again in Week 2 with another high-volume elite target share of 27 percent. It really does not matter that Sam Darnold will hit some speed bumps as he develops this season. If Enunwa continues to garner double digit targets then he will be an extremely high floor fantasy starter every single week.

Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay again project as top-24 wide receiver options this week. The two have benefited from high volume pass offenses providing them with ample targets for their talent to translate into fantasy efficiency. The fantasy community is very high on both players, especially Golladay, after consecutive strong performances. Pump the brakes, though, as Golden Tate has accrued a 27 percent target share to Golladay’s 20 percent share, and Godwin is sitting at only a 16 percent share. Understand that both players are highly talented weekly WR2-3 options, but that they would need an injury to see WR1 caliber usage.

The model likes John Brown to finish as a top-24 wide receiver for a second consecutive week. Brown is a buy low candidate in a murky Baltimore pass-catching corps because of his air yards profile.

Player

Target Share

Market Share Air

Weighted Opportunity Rating

aDot

PPR

John Brown

0.15

0.33

0.46

19.1

32.7

Willie Snead

0.15

0.14

0.32

7.9

25.3

Michael Crabtree

0.17

0.20

0.40

10.2

23.4

The Baltimore receivers all have similar volume, but Brown is the clear standout with a massive 19.1 aDOT and 33 percent share of air yards. Sorry Michael Crabtree owners, but expect Brown to be the most productive player out of this wide-receiver-by-committee for the rest of the season.

Scary Floors

Corey Davis has a 33 percent target share through the first two weeks but is an easy bench candidate with a 2.7 point floor. Davis has carried over his mediocre efficiency from last year and will be catching passes from a wounded Marcus Mariota or Blaine Gabbert versus Jacksonville’s shutdown secondary this week.

Year

Catch Rate

aDOT

RACR

2017

0.52

11.60

0.49

2018

0.53

9.30

0.66

Davis is an intriguing volume-based buy low candidate if he predictably posts another poor box score this week.

Although he exceeded expectations last week by scoring two touchdowns, consider benching Chris Hogan if you have a more reliable option.

Hogan has accumulated only a 14 percent target share through two weeks and is shaping up to be a touchdown or bust type of player this year. Josh Gordon’s arrival in New England and Julian Edelman’s pending return only weaken Hogan’s outlook. Owners who thought they snuck away with a steal at ADP will likely continue to be disappointed with Hogan’s output.

The model has unjustifiably bashed A.J. Green all three weeks and ranks him as the WR33 by floor projection in Week 3. It is important to recognize when a model is spitting out a noisy projection. I figured Green’s unimpressive Week 1 projection resulted from his performance from last year, but I expected that to be adjusted after Green’s 25.55 PPR average these first two weeks. His projection here is straight noise. Start Green in all formats.

Notably, there are few glaring floor projections this week. Start your studs!

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