Returning Dominators: No. 9 – Part II

In this series, I’m breaking down the top-10 returning college wide receivers from 2017 by dominator rating (DR). If you’re unfamiliar with dominator rating, it’s a receiver’s combined market share of receiving yardage and touchdowns. While it’s only one element in receiver evaluation – and requires age and experience adjustments to tell the full story – it provides an excellent snapshot of a player’s role within his offense.

Consider this an early look at potential rookies in the 2019 class to get a jump-start on the draft season. I’ll take a look back at their prospect profiles and rankings from high school, their production at the college level, and prospectus for the NFL. The 2017 countdown included Michael GallupCourtland SuttonAnthony Miller, and Richie James.

The 2018 version has some overlap in dominator rating, as is the case with four players tied for ninth. To avoid overlooking anyone in this situation, the player with the higher market share of receiving yards will be ranked higher.

Malcolm Williams – Coastal Carolina

Williams played at Woodlawn High School in Shreveport, Louisiana, and posted nearly 800 combined rushing and receiving yards to go with 11 touchdowns as a senior. His first year at the collegiate level was spent at Fort Scott Community College in Kansas. While it’s hard to quantify the level of competition at the junior college level, Fort Scott plays in the Kansas Jayhawk Conference, which fields many talented teams and plenty of Division I talent — 2016 National Champion Garden City, perennially ranked Butler, Coffeyville, and Hutchinson, along with upstarts Independence who were featured on  the latest season of Last Chance U on Netflix.

He finished second in every receiving category for the Greyhounds despite missing two games, and produced a dominator rating of 0.18. That’s an encouraging start given he played right away and produced, even in the junior college ranks. A dominator rating above 0.20 would be more encouraging, but he came close to that mark despite missing time.

Williams left Kansas for Coastal Carolina and joined the Chanticleers in 2016. While he was active for every game, Williams made almost no impact on the field, securing only two receptions for 17 yards, both of which came in the final two games of the season.

2017 was a completely different story, as Williams became a focal point for the offense. He led Coastal Carolina in every receiving category by a wide margin, catching 43 passes for 793 yards (35 percent market share) and seven touchdowns (39 percent market share) for a 0.37 dominator rating. His best game was against UL Monroe with nine receptions for 266 yards and two touchdowns, which accounted for 34 percent of his yards and 29 percent of his touchdowns on the season. Without that blowup game, he’s not on this countdown.

Williams is slightly behind his 2017 production thus far, leading the Chanticleers with 12 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns for a 0.29 DR through three games. They open Sun Belt Conference play next Saturday, September 22nd, at UL-Lafayette at noon ET.

Year Class Games Rec Rec Yds Rec TD Team Passing Team TDs MS Yards Ms TDs Dominator
2015* Fr. 8 22 283 1 1,521 6 0.19 0.17 0.18
2016 So. 12 2 17 0 1,600 15 0.01 0 0
2017 Jr. 12 43 793 7 2,269 18 0.35 0.39 0.37

 Teddy Veal – Louisiana Tech

Like Williams, Teddy Veal is also a transfer, though he didn’t start at the junior college level. A three-star athlete, Veal was rated the No. 27 prospect in Louisiana and was an All-State selection as a senior, recording 44 receptions for 673 yards and 11 touchdowns. Veal had offers from SMU and Ole Miss but stayed close to home and signed with Tulane.

At 6 feet and 191 pounds, Veal plays primarily out of the slot. He made an impact right away as a true freshman, leading the Green Wave with 40 receptions. He was second with 381 receiving yards (16 percent market share) but had only one touchdown (8 percent market share) on a team that struggled to score for a 0.12 dominator rating. He improved as a sophomore, leading Tulane in receptions again with 48 but nearly doubled his yardage total to 644 (27 percent market share) and scored five touchdowns (28 percent market share). He just missed the 0.30 DR required to break out as a true sophomore and transferred to Louisiana Tech.

Veal had to sit out the 2016 season due to NCAA transfer rules but was easily the top receiving option for the Bulldogs last year, leading them in every category. His 74 receptions were 41 more than his nearest teammate to go with 950 yards (32 percent market share) and seven touchdowns (41 percent market share). He had three 100-yard games and was a Second Team All-Conference USA selection.

A DR of 0.37 makes Veal a 21-year-old breakout, which is on the older side in terms of prospect evaluation. Due to his lost transfer year, Veal will be entering the NFL at 23. Blair Andrews previously looked into draft age, a factor that we should give more weight to in when evaluating players. Ultimately, draft position also plays a large factor in our evaluation so we shouldn’t write-off Veal just yet due to his age, and keep in mind he missed an entire season due to transfer.

Veal and Louisiana Tech are off this week but travel to Baton Rouge September 22 for a date with the Tigers of LSU.

Year Class Games Rec Rec Yds Rec TD Team Passing Team TDs MS Yards Ms TDs Dominator
2014 Fr. 12 40 381 1 2,415 13 0.16 0.08 0.12
2015 So. 11 48 644 5 2,415 18 0.27 0.28 0.28
2017 Jr. 13 74 950 7 2,997 17 0.32 0.41 0.37